Archive for the ‘NPD Analysis’ Category

Weekly News Roundup (14 October 2012)

Sunday, October 14th, 2012

Welcome to the two hundred and sixty third weekly news roundup – may the news be ever in your favour. Yes, I’ve recently watched and read The Hunger Games (and the other two books in the trilogy too), stories that are right up the alley for a self confessed post-apocalyp-fanatic like myself. My favourite character in the book is Buttercup. Why does Buttercup have to be a black (and white) cat in the movie, not gonna lie, kind of ruined the movie.

It’s one of those weeks where everything appears perfectly calm, and then everything sneaks up upon you in the last minute. A couple of stories have been intentionally left to next week in case there’s a drought of stories. Let’s get started.

Copyright

Sometimes you read a story and you can’t help but feel sick to your stomach at the whole copyright lobbying machine that has been created by the unholy marriage between the copyright lobby and the US government. Attorney General Eric Holder this week revealed that the DoJ has been spending tax payer money helping the music and movie industries spread their propaganda overseas, or to state it in a more neutral manner, to help “educated” thousands of foreign judges, prosecutors, investigators and even policymakers.

Eric Holder

Attorney General Eric Holder is proud of the fact that the DoJ has been “educating” foreign judges, prosecutors and policymakers on copyright issues

In other words, the DoJ, at tax payer expense, has been peddling the often exaggerated “facts” that have no doubt been provided directly by the likes of the MPAA and RIAA, all in the name of helping to keep America’s economy strong (by helping these industries holding on to outdated business models, and denying the potential of the Internet).

What made me sick though was suddenly remembering what SOPA/PIPA would have allowed the DoJ to do – to go into these foreign jurisdictions and sue IP “thieves” (again using tax payer funds) on behalf of the likes of Sony and Fox (who obviously can’t afford to hire their own lawyers). They would be putting their case in front of foreign judges that they have already spent vast sums “educating”, judges that will rule based on laws made by policymakers that the DoJ have also been “educating”. Well it’s a shame for them though that SOPA/PIPA didn’t pass, isn’t it?

And it’s not as if the US even needs to educate other countries in how to be totally over-the-top when it comes to copyright enforcement – these other countries have their own lobbyists too, you know. Like the UK’s Federation Against Software Theft (FAST), and their attempt to stop 4G piracy before it even starts.

Despite the high cost of 4G bandwidth, FAST says that this could become a real problem sometime in the future, and therefore, it is asking the regulators to take a serious look at this and other technologies. No doubt the “other” may eventually include public Wi-Fi hotspots, regulations on which may very well kill off these ever more useful services.

So despite almost no evidence that any technological measures have worked so far, let’s all just concentrate on implementing more technological measures for technology that has barely been launched yet. And instead of thinking about what you can do with new technology, let’s first work out what you definitely shouldn’t be allowed to do first!

Spotify Logo

Spotify helping to reduce piracy? The stats seems to point that way …

It’s this kind of backwards thinking that, I think, has hampered any real effort to combat online piracy. And a new study confirms that, in most cases, fighting piracy should be done by giving the people what they want, not stopping them doing what they’re already doing. Against staying in the UK, Musicmetric’s Digital Music Index report found that music BitTorrent piracy rates were more likely to decrease  in regions that has access to Spotify, than in regions that did not have the freemium based streaming service.

Out of the top 10 countries that saw the fastest decreasing music BitTorrent rates, 5 of them had Spotify. Out of the top 10 countries that saw rising music BitTorrent usage, only one of them had access to the service. Interestingly, the odd one out on this occasion was France, the country with one of the toughest anti-BitTorrent regimes in place!

But you don’t need a degree in, well, anything to know that competing with piracy does a better job of defeating it than simply trying to prevent it. Spotify does that in spades, and that’s why it’s so popular.

Megabox Screengrab

A screengrab of the upcoming Megabox website, highlighting “exclusive artists” including ‘The Black Keys’, ‘Rusko’, ‘Two Fingers’ and ‘will.i.am’

What may also become popular is Kim Dotcom’s next venture, Megabox. This week, Dotcom revealed that coding for the new music downloading website is 90% complete. The news that the “new Mega” might launch this year, before even the extradition proceedings have been completed for Dotcom, should rightly annoy the U.S. prosecutors handling the case. Megabox, for those that don’t know, aims to cut out the middleman, the record industry championed by the RIAA (who was probably instrumental in getting Megaupload taken down), and to connect music fans directly with artists. Artists will get 90% of all revenue earned via advertising associated with the site, as well as from direct music purchases. As for fears Megabox will face the same fate as Megaupload, Kim Dotcom assures us that this will be “impossible”.

What also isn’t possible, at least right now, is for Doctom and Megaupload to extricate themselves from the criminal case pending in the U.S. A judge this week ruled against Megaupload’s motion to dismiss, siding with prosecutors who believe that it is indeed possible to launch proceedings against a company that doesn’t actually have an U.S. office. There are still some procedural concerns though that the judge has left open for future examination of the dismissal question, including the actual handing over of the charging documents that prosecutors have failed to do so far. With extradition proceedings pending until early next year, any permanent ruling over the motion to dismiss will have to happen afterwards.

Gaming

It’s that time of the month again. For 21 months in a row now, the Xbox 360 has been crowned the best selling home based console, beating the PS3 and the Wii (probably in this order) in the NPD monthly sales report. With both Sony and Nintendo tight lipped again about their sales figures, there will be no NPD analysis this month again. The September reporting period may also have included (or just missed out on) a couple of days of sales for the PS3 Super Slim, but no statement was forthcoming from Sony at the current time.

For the Xbox 360, it managed to sell 270,000 units, down some 38.4% compared to the same month a year ago. Even with the decline in sales, it managed to account for 49% of home based console sales, meaning that even when you combine the Wii and PS3 numbers, they’re only a tiny bit more than just the 360 number by themselves.

Not long to go until the Wii U, so Microsoft better make the most out of their current “victories”.

That’s that for the week. See you again in seven days.

Weekly News Roundup (16 September 2012)

Sunday, September 16th, 2012

Welcome to another issue of the WNR. For yet another month, I waited naively in the vain hope that more figures would start leaking out for August’s NPD analysis, but alas, that wasn’t to be the case. So as usual, the gaming section is where August’s NPD will live (on life support, coming in and out of the coma).

iPhone 5

iPhone 5: Faster, lighter, thinner, and bigger where it counts (the screen). But is it still exciting and innovative?

Otherwise, it was a fairly quiet week. I suppose I should talk about the iPhone 5 release or whatever. Was that perhaps the most anti-climatic launch event in Apple’s recent history? Through the various leaks, almost everything about the new iPhone had been fairly well known long before the Wednesday launch event – Apple seems to have given up on the almost impossible job of trying to keep things secret. And even if we somehow didn’t know about the larger (well, taller anyway) screen, LTE and the other new stuff, none of it would have been a huge surprise anyway. There’s nothing wrong with incrementally improving an already well established product, but having failed to keep up with its competitors in terms of screen size, and features such as NFC, the least Apple could have done was to inspire us with some of the ways to use newly added features. This has been their strength in the recent past, so to hear them talk more about “faster CPUs”, “better graphics”, brings back painful memories of the PC upgrade cycle and how pointless it all was talking about MHz and RAM sizes.

With all that said, the iPhone 5 is set to become the fastest selling gadget of all time, so maybe I have no idea what I’m talking about (more than probable). Vote in our poll to tell us your thoughts about the new iPhone.

Copyright

Google’s self-censorship continues this week, with The Pirate Bay joining the list of blacklisted search terms that will no longer be part of Google’s Autocomplete and Instant search products. The name of the website, and its domain name, joins notorious terms such as “torrent” and “RapidShare” as part of Google’s blacklist.

I have no idea what this latest move, part of Google’s appeasement policy, will actually do to combat piracy at all. I guess people who want to search for The Pirate Bay, but don’t know how to spell the words “Pirate”, “Bay” and “The”, may just give up and buy movies and music instead, or something. Interestingly, searching for “teh pyrat bey” still brings up TPB website as the first result, as Google’s auto-correct features appears to still show love for the website.

Meanwhile, TPB co-founder Gottfrid Svartholm has arrived safe and relatively well back in Sweden to face new hacking charges, and to serve the prison sentence imposed on his for his crime of being initially part of The Pirate Bay (as well as pay the million bucks he will be unable to pay), and further jail time for not appearing for a court hearing earlier in the year.

Speaking of millions of bucks in damages, the legal merry-go-around continues for Jamie Thomas-Rasset, as the appeals court ruled this week that the damages decision from the second of her three previous trials was the one that was perfectly valid, and that the judge had no right in those trials to reduce the damages amount to something reasonable like $54,000. Instead, Thomas-Rasset will be asked to pay $222,000 for the act of sharing 24 songs. I guess that’s better than the $1.92 million from the third trial.

There’s no doubt that a large percentage of the $222,000 is punitive in its nature, as even considering the thousand songs that Thomas-Rasset is supposed to have shared (only 24 of those were included as part of the trial), there’s no way that $222,000 worth of damages could have occurred via direct damages. If we take the calculation used to come up with the $222,000 in damages, and couple it with the 11,000 copyrighted songs that the RIAA identified were being shared on LimeWire before its demise, each having being shared a thousand time (the RIAA actually claimed each were shared “thousands” of times), the resulting total damages would be worth excess of $101,750,000,000 (that’s $101 billion). Even if you take the $222,000 and divide by the 1,000 songs that Thomas-Rasset is alleged to have shared, multiply that by the LimeWire figures, then that’s still more than $2.4 billion. And this was just one music sharing method.

The real question is, given Thomas-Rasset’s intent (ie. to download songs for free), is it really fair to class her actions along with wilful pirates that make and sell counterfeit CDs, or start websites fraudulently charging people to download songs that are pirated in the first place? Her intent was to save a few thousands dollars, at best, by downloading instead of buying, so should the punitive nature of the damages be hundreds of times greater?

As controversial as the French “three-strikes” Hadopi regime has been, with the very same thing coming to the US (but twice as many strikes! Beat that Frenchies. USA! USA!), the trials and tribulations of both Thomas-Rasset and her compatriot Joel Tenenbaum would have been far more agreeable if they had fallen foul of these graduated response laws, rather than having to go through the civil court system.

Ironically, three-or-more strikes actually works out better for those that do admit to pirating stuff. At least compared to the threat of a civil lawsuit. But for one craftsman in rural France, his Kafkaesque ordeal might point to the more unfair aspects of graduated response.

Alain Prevost has the unfortunate distinction of being the first person to be fined under France’s Hadopi laws. This is despite Prevost proving he wasn’t responsible for any downloads by bringing the real perpetrator, his soon to be ex-wife, to court to testify to this fact. Prevost was still fined 150 euros for failing to secure his Internet connection.

Having received two warning emails and letters regarding illegal downloads, Prevost actually implemented his own punishment by disconnecting his Internet account, and instructed his wife’s lawyer to write to Hadopi to explain everything. But the Hadopi agency did not like the fact that Prevost stopped responding to his emails (hard to do when you don’t have an Internet connection), and wrote to Prevost to order him to travel all the way to Paris to explain himself. Prevost declined the invitation, feeling such a trivial matter should not warrant the expense of travel. This apparently made Hadopi even more angry, and it was at this point the police were involved. Prevost was summoned to the police station to explain himself, and it is here that Prevost made his biggest, and possibly only mistake, in this whole ordeal – he told the truth!

Prevost told the police that his wife was most likely the responsible party for the downloads (something that his wife would agree to testify to), and that in a show of good faith, he would hire the services of a local computer expert, at his own expense,  to clean his computer of any infringing files. If Prevost thought that explaining away his responsibility and taking pre-emptive actions to remove any infringing content would lead to the end of the matter, he would be sadly mistaken.

Prevost was then summoned to appear in court over his audacity to ignore Hadopi. Prevost brought along his wife to testify to the fact that he had not done anything wrong, but having told the truth to the police earlier on, this was used against him by the court who opined that Prevost must have had prior knowledge of his wife’s illegal activities, and therefore was still responsible. Prevost was eventually fined 150 euros, a lower amount than the prosecutors had asked for due to the fact that Prevost has no criminal record.

All of this because his wife might have downloaded two Rihanna songs, and all to only result in a small fine that probably doesn’t even cover a tenth of the expense that Hadopi used to catch this criminal mastermind. And what benefit to rights holders? Who knows.

High Definition

After the demise of HD DVD, everyone (including yours truly) thought that the next battle would be between Blu-ray and DVDs, and to an extent, that has been true. But the super quick way in which services like Netflix, VUDU, Amazon and iTunes have become ubiquitous among today’s connected multimedia devices suggests that the real battle is not between the new and old disc formats, but between having a disc format and, well, having no discs at all.

Fox Digital HD

Fox Digital HD will allow HD digital copies to be purchased weeks before the DVD/Blu-ray ones

So when Fox, one of the biggest and earliest supporters of Blu-ray revealed plans to release purchasable digital downloads of their movies ahead of their Blu-ray and DVD releases, a few eyebrows were definitely raise. While early release digital downloads are not new in the strictest sense, they’ve mostly been one-offs – a release here, a release there. But the Fox initiative plans to bring the strategy forward for most of their A-listers, including the upcoming releases Prometheus and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, and they’re doing it across as many devices as possible (supported platforms currently include Amazon, CinemaNow, iTunes, PlayStation, VUDU and Xbox Live).

And most importantly, all of these releases as part of Fox’s “Digital HD” initiative will be available on glorious HD (well, glorious by today’s download standards), thus directly competing with Blu-ray (although HT die-hards like myself might disagree, at least when talking about the quality of HD).

The immediate risk for Fox is that the digital downloads will cannibalize their disc sales, and also increase the risk of piracy. So Fox are either super confident about the DRM systems being used by its third party partners, or they’ve realised that pirates will pirate anyway, and that the pirated version would most likely already have been available long before the DRM-laden digital download version makes its official appearance.

Gaming

August’s NPD figures, well what was made available anyway, showed nothing particularly alarming or surprising. The Xbox 360 continued to be the most popular console, with 193,000 units sold, down 37% compared to the same month last year.

The 193,000 was 48% of the entire home based console market, leaving 209,000 units between the PS3 and Wii. Given the most recent known results, this probably breaks down to something like 130,000 and 79,000 for the PS3 and Wii respectively, possibly even higher for the PS3 given that the proximity to the Wii U’s introduction.

Speaking of the Wii U, Apple weren’t the only ones to have launched a product this week, with Nintendo officially launching the $299 Wii U (with a more expensive “premium” version for $349, with more storage and accessories). Surprisingly, the rumours from last week about the release date was in fact correct: November 18, for North America.

Wii U TVii

Wii U TVii: Digital download and streaming for the Wii U, but the optical drive is a no-go zone for movies

What I found most interesting was the TVii announcement, which is set to turn the Wii U into a digital media hub in the same way that the PS3 and Xbox 360 already are. Supporting the latest digital streaming services such as Amazon, Netflix, Hulu, and also offering support for TiVo DVRs, the Wii U is an odd device in that it does use Blu-ray sized optical discs, but it appears the only way to play movies would be via digital streaming or downloads. The next evolution of the game console may very well see the disc drive removed, with games being distributed digitally too.

But we’d all need bigger bandwidth allowances, if not unlimited quotas, before that can become a reality. Personally speaking, I’ve used up half of my allowance last month viewing Amazon Prime streaming titles, to the point where I had to ration my usage towards the end of the cycle. An additional $30 to move up to the next bandwidth tier doesn’t seem economical to me, at the moment.

That’s it for this issue. See you in seven.

Weekly News Roundup (19 August 2012)

Sunday, August 19th, 2012

Welcome to another edition of the WNR. NPD “released” its July 2012 sales stats for US video game sales, but unfortunately, only Microsoft again chose to divulge its hardware sales stats. So no July NPD analysis, which is a shame, but there wasn’t any real surprises anyway. I’ll talk a bit about it in the gaming section below.

Another pretty full news week, so let’s get started …

Copyright

So much for “do no evil”. Google gave in to the demands of the MPAA and the RIAA this week by signalling it is ready to start self-censoring its own results to reduce the visibility of alleged piracy websites. Without going as far as removing suspected websites, Google will start demoting any website that receives an unspecified number of DMCA notices.

Google DMCA Demote

Google has started demoting websites that receive too many DMCA notices, the image on the left shows the demoted rankings, while the image on the right (for the yet unchanged Greek version of Google) shows the previous rankings

It’s own YouTube website, and “major brands” will apparently be exempt from this new rule (webmasters have long suspected there’s one rule for the web top 100, and another rule for the rest), but the rest will now have to live in fear of the system, which is already being massive abused by those seeking an unfair advantage (57% of all filed notices, according to a Google report from 2006), and made even more attractive as a “black hat” weapon of choice now that the entire domains of competitors can be demoted. Since Google started releasing DMCA stats, the number of DMCA notifications has risen from about a million per month, to now over 4!

Except none of this will work to stop piracy, because people aren’t turning into pirates just because they see some links to The Pirate Bay on Google. I don’t know if it’s naivety, a head in sand attitude, or a deliberate attempt to muddy the waters, but the idea that good, people are being fooled and misled into downloading pirated content online is, to put it simply, hogwash. People pirate and they do it willingly, and knowingly. And they spent a lot of effort learning and honing their piracy skills. They will most likely alredy have go-to places to get their piracy fix, or custom search engines that does more work separating the wheat from the chaff, so the idea that they’re all relying on Google to find the S01E08 of The Newsroom is simply a fantasy.

But despite Google’s proactive steps in reducing piracy, the MPAA/RIAA still wants more. In a joint submission to the US Copyright Czar, the MPAA and the RIAA have called on the government to do even more in the CRusade Against Piracy (CRAP™), including going all “Megaupload” on websites like The Pirate Bay. Basically a wish-list and a preview of what the copyright landscape could be like if the MPAA/RIAA get their way, the submission also talks about increasing criminal sentences for copyright offences, including making the unauthorised streaming of videos a felony.

Showing that they’ve not quite given up on SOPA/PIPA, the submission also calls for tighter control of domain names, including those outside of the jurisdiction of the US government. The groups also say that the government needs to go out and threaten private businesses like domain name registrars, search engines, and advertising agencies and get them to fall in line with the MPAA/RIAA’s vision of copyright enforcement. So it’s simply not good enough for Google to only demote websites that have yet to be proven, in a court of law at least, of doing anything wrong – no, the MPAA/RIAA says search engines like Google must “delist rogue sites”. Note the use of the term “rogue”, the same type of language that’s also being used to describes countries like North Korea and Iran, and I don’t think this is a coincidence either.

Feeding into the paranoia and hysterics that aims to paint college kids downloading movies as something much more serious, the MPAA/RIAA also strategically brings “organized crime” and “gangs” into the equation in this submission. But as far as I know, Tony Soprano purchased his copy of The Godfather, and it may be just me, but I just can’t imagine the Crips and the Bloods getting into the torrent search engine business.

High Definition

The wait is finally over. The kind people at Fox studios have finally allowed their customers to buy Avatar on Blu-ray 3D, for a price that isn’t a ridiculous 3 figure number.

Fox’s deal with Panasonic, where the electronic giant has exclusive rights to distribute the Blu-ray 3D version of Avatar with the 3D electronics, was one of the more controversial movie deals in recent times. Coming just at a time when Blu-ray 3D needed a launch title that could only come from the most acclaimed and most financially successful 3D movie of all time, the exclusivity deal meant that the format lacked a killer title available in stores that would have helped the format’s early adoption. As such, Blu-ray 3D hasn’t taken off in the way that electronic manufacturers and movie studios had hoped.

Avatar 3D Blu-ray Panasonic Exclusive

The Panasonic exclusive version of Avatar on Blu-ray 3D is still fetching 3 figures on eBay and Amazon, but the retail version will be available in October

With that said though, while people aren’t using 3D as much as studios would have liked, they’re still buying them because the price premium of 3D over 2D ranges between inconsequential and non-existent. Try and find a top of the range 2D TV that isn’t also 3D, and you’ll struggle. And when there’s only a $20 difference between a 2D Blu-ray player and its 3D equivalent, consumers don’t really have to make any hard choices.

Still, the retail release of Avatar on Blu-ray 3D should help the format break all kinds of records when the disc is released in October. The price is a bit higher than your average Blu-ray movie, $28 at Amazon, but it’s definitely better than paying $128 for it on eBay, right?

But don’t bet on this Blu-ray 3D Limited Collector’s edition to be the most definitive 3D version of the film to arrive on disc. The fact that this release might not even feature the extended cut means that Fox is already planning a quadruple dip of the film sometime in the near future.

Even for the 2D version, it’s only a matter of time before we see the 4K or whatever version of the film on possibly a new disc format, or if bandwidth issues are resolved, via streaming or download. Projects like Australia’s NBN and Google Fiber will aim to fix for the bandwidth issue once and for all with the move to fibre optics, which has almost an unlimited capacity to carry TB/s and beyond, but another solution is to increase the efficiency of the delivery codec. Which is why it was interesting to read about the news of a new format being officially approved by the Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG), which promises to provide the same visual quality as H.264 with only half of the bandwidth needed.

H.264 is already super efficient, so it’s hard to believe that something could come along and double that efficiency, but HEVC, or H.265, aims to do just that through more computational intensive algorithms. Mobile applications would probably benefit the most from H.265/HEVC, due to their inherent bandwidth limitations, although faster (and more power hungry) devices may be needed to decode the video.

The other main beneficiary from a more efficient codec would be the web streaming industry, finally allowing the likes of Netflix to do true Blu-ray quality streams on connections less than 20 Mbps.

For other applications, 4K is an obvious candidate, but 4K only really benefits super large screens (say 80″ or above), and it’s an overkill for anything smaller. And if staying at 2K or 1080p resolution, the increased efficiency of H.265/HEVC may allow for same bitrate, but higher quality encodes, although you’ll get diminishing returns on any quality improvement for Blu-ray encodes, many of which are already visually flawless to the average viewer.

Gaming

Blizzard’s Battle.net has become, perhaps, one of the most tempting targets for hackers in recent times. Not only does the company hold a heck of a lot of data for a heck of a lot of people, Blizzard also holds tons of financial information for all those subscribers to WoW, and all those buyers/sellers on Diablo III’s Auction House. And the company’s stance towards “always-on” DRM for D3 meant that anyone who pokes holes in their security will instantly receive a lot of “web cred” for their efforts.

Blizzard Security Notice

Blizzard was hacked last week, with a ton of user information stolen in the process.

So unsurprisingly, Battle.net was hacked this week, with a heck of a lot of data being stolen in the process, including emails, (encrypted) passwords, security questions/answers, and even data related to the mobile authenticator that’s supposed to prevent hackers from getting into your account. The scale of the breach is actually quite spectacular, with the email addresses of every Battle.net account (except for those in China – probably on different servers) being leaked, and pretty much all accounts on the North American servers being compromised further.

Just the other week, Blizzard was boasting about how effective “always-on” DRM has been in preventing piracy, which has meant the company has made record amounts of money selling the hit game. It’s a shame that they didn’t invest enough of their loot (using it in the Diablo III sense) in protecting their users, but when you treat your customers as criminals by forcing draconian DRM on them, their rights were never that important to start with.

And as mentioned in the intro, the July NPD report was released, with the Xbox 360 once again riding high among the home based consoles, selling 203,000 units. But it was still 26.7% down compared to the same month last year, although the other home based consoles probably didn’t fare much better (the Wii in particular). The holiday sales period is coming up soon, and with the Wii U out around that time, it will be interesting to see if the Xbox 360 and PS3 will make a comeback, or take a further hit, when sales ramp up for this period.

But a price discount could do wonders for the two ageing consoles, especially when up against the compartively pricey Wii U.

That’s that for the week. See you in seven!

Game Consoles – June 2012 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

After a 2 month break, the NPD analysis is back!

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures, and then calculating missing figures based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For June 2012, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

  • “Nintendo sold more than 400,000 total hardware units in June and saw double-digit growth across each of its product lines compared to May. This includes more than 155,000 Nintendo 3DS systems, more than 150,000 units of the Nintendo DS family of systems and nearly 95,000 Wii consoles,” via Gaming Examiner
  • Microsoft revealed 257,000 Xbox 360 units were sold, with 47% of the home based console market share (source)
  • Sony did not reveal any figures for the PS3

A little bit of “statement maths” tells us that just under 195,000 PS3s were sold.

And so the figures for US sales in June 2012 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (June 2011 figures also shown when available, including percentage change – note that totals for the PS3/Wii are now only rough estimates, as exact figures were not available for all months):

  • Xbox 360: 257,000 (Total: 34.1 million; June 2011: 507,000 – down 49.3%)
  • PS3: 195,000 (Total: ~21 million; June 2011: 276,000 – down 29.3%)
  • Wii: 95,000 (Total: ~39.5 million; June 2011: 273,000 – down 65.2%)
NPD June 2012 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD June 2012 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2012)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2012)

This is the first time I can remember of the Wii numbers dropping below the 100k mark, but the 65% drop from the same time last year was probably not unexpected, considering how close the Wii U is to retail.

While the Xbox 360 continues to “impress” by winning the most popular home based console award, 18 month in a row now, its numbers were down a considerable 49% from the same time last year, which to be honest, was a fantastic month for the console (and the Xbox 360 was the only console then to record a year-on-year growth figure). A bit worrying is that the decline seems to have sped up in the last couple of months too, perhaps as a indirect response to the Wii U, but more so perhaps due to this time last year’s numbers being “above normal”.

The PS3 has the smallest year-on-year decline of all the home based consoles, but that’s not to say that it isn’t struggling itself. It’s still down some 36% compared to 2 years ago (Xbox 360 down 43% for the same period – although that’s comparing now to the then launch of the Xbox 360 Slim – the Wii is down 78%!), and it still doesn’t look like its ever going to beat the Xbox 360 unless the 360 is retired early by Microsoft.

It’s not exactly all doom and gloom, since we’re approaching the end of a cycle even if Microsoft and Sony don’t want to admit it publicly, but I think it’s safe to say that we’ve already seen the best of these three home based consoles, and the only way forward now is downwards for them all.

Numbers have also been made available for the PS Vita, which along with the PSP, only sold a combined 100,000 units. Compare and contrast to the Nintendo DS, which sold 150,000 units, and the 3DS, which sold 155,000 units, and you can see the Vita has been a disappointment for Sony so far. The sales figure also highlights a significant drop compared to the earlier sales figures for Vita, which can’t be a good sign either. I think once again, Sony has misjudged the market. Trying to get on the casual gaming bandwagon, while still offering hardcore gamers an exciting gadget, Sony might have ended up catering to neither market. They don’t have the expertise in making fun and casual games like Nintendo, everyone already has a smartphone or tablet that can do what the Vita does, and the high cost of hardware and software, proprietary formats and DRM, means that the Vita was already at a disadvantage before it was even launched. Still, the holiday period will be decisive and if the Vita can have a good one, and if it can have more linkage to the PS3 and other Sony devices, then it can still carve outs its own niche.

In game sales, it’s not exactly been another great month, with the top selling title on all platforms, Lego Batman 2: DC Super Heores, only selling 450,000 copies or so. Speaking of the Vita, what Sony also doesn’t have is a Pokemon like franchise to exploit like the DS/3DS is able to do this month with Pokemon Conquest, coming in at a high 7th for a single platform release (all other listed in the top 10 are multi-platform games). Here’s the full software sales chart for June (new releases shown in bold):

  1. Lego Batman 2: DC Super Heores (Warner Bros – Xbox 360, Wii, PS3, NDS, 3DS, PSV, PC)
  2. Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Future Soldier (Ubisoft – Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  3. Diablo 3 (Activision Blizzard – PC)
  4. Max Payne 3 (Take-Two Interactive- Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  5. NBA 2K12 (Take-Two Interactive – Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)
  6. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros – Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  7. Pokemon Conquest (Nintendo – NDS)
  8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision – Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PC)
  9. Battlefield 3 (EA – Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  10. The Amazing Spider-Man (Activision Blizzard – Xbox 360, PS3, 3DS, NDS, Wii)
I don’t think I’ll bother to make a prediction. Firstly because I don’t think we’ll have enough figures to do an analysis next month, and secondly, the hardware sales order  will be pretty much the same as this month (and will be the case until the Wii U is introduced later this year).
See you next month?

Weekly News Roundup (17 June 2012)

Sunday, June 17th, 2012

Hello to you on this a rainy, windy and cold Sunday here in Melbourne, Australia. How’s the week been treating you? Not too badly I hope. Another rather quiet news week, but maybe I was just too busy to pay attention. A little bit from column A, a little bit from column B, I suspect. Well, whatever news I did find, they were quite interesting, so let’s get started.

Copyright

The fallout (not to be confused with another, in my opinion quite fantastic, gaming franchise) from the Diablo 3 DRM choice continues this week, as videos emerged showing an item duplication exploit in Diablo 3 – the kind of thing that always-on DRM, at least according to Blizzard, was supposed to stop.

The video, originating from South Korea, showed a gamer doing the very thing that Blizzard was afraid of – duping items. The exploit was so damaging that Blizzard had to shut off South Korean game servers while a fix was rolled out. Thousands of gamers were also banned for using this and other cheating methods. Duplication hacks can be extremely damaging for Blizzard, while profitable for hackers – Diablo 3 features a real money Auction House where users can sell their hard-earned or not so hard-earned virtual in-game items, and as a result, item duping in D3 becomes just as bad as counterfeit money is in the real economy.

Diablo 3 Auction House

Real money trading of in-game items has made Diablo 3 a tempting target for hackers and scammers

So despite the harsh “always-on” DRM that Blizzard chose to employ for Diablo 3, which the company itself says wasn’t for anti-piracy but for protection against cheaters and hackers, it has not really lived up to expectations. If anything, the inclusion of real money transactions, which necessitates the use of an always-on DRM/access control system, has provided hackers with extra incentive to find exploits and loopholes that they can profit from. For us gamers though, it meant a frustrating (and still frustrating) gaming experience, although some have already started making good money from the Auction House.

And I’m still not convinced that Blizzard couldn’t have created an offline mode for the game. By implementing some kind of local virtual server that the game can connect to, this could provide emulation of an online experience, without the need to actually be online all the time. This may very well be the tact that the piracy community will use to crack the game, so we’ll have to wait and see if they can help out D3 gamers by creating an unofficial offline mode.

But some in the gaming industry are already pointing at Diablo 3’s fantastic sales figures and using that as justification for always-on DRM – at the other end of the spectrum, DRM-free gaming is also booming. And not only that, the “pay what you want” pricing model is also providing to be more than effective too. The latest Humble Indie Bundle (the 5th edition, for those keeping count) has managed to sell within a cat’s whisker of 600,000 bundles, raking in over $5 million in the process. Despite the basic bundle being available for as low as a penny, on average, gamers chose to pay $8.53 for the 4 game (plus 4 bonus games) bundle, proving that, if the price is right, people will pay. More remarkable is the fact that former buyers of the bundle, Steam sale addicts, and indie gaming enthusiasts would mostly already have most of the games on offer (I had 5 of the 8), so even from a shrinking sales pool, this latest bundle has managed to beat all expectations, and has actually earned twice as much as the last bundle.

The Humble Indie Bundle V

The Humble Indie Bundle V has generated more than $5 million in sales, from nearly 600,000 bundles sold

While I’m sure Diablo 3 raked in a lot more money than all the Humble Indie Bundles combined (and then some), then again, none of the games in the Humble bundle took 10 years to materialise either. And all were made with considerably less budget than Blizzard’s latest hit. At the very least, the Humble bundles prove that DRM-free can work, and so can the pay what you want model, even with the availability of both free pirated, and free (well, almost free – a penny) legal ways to get the games.

For those still holding out hope for a way to retrieve their legally uploaded files from Megaupload, especially after last week’s news that the MPAA is not totally against the idea, the news doesn’t look very promising. Responding to a lawsuit filed by an affected Megaupload user, US government prosecutors says that while they were responsible for shutting down Megaupload, they’re no longer responsible for the servers that now holds user files. Copies of the important data have already been made by the government, and as a result, they no longer have “possession” of the original data and can’t grant or deny access to them. It seems the data is now back in the possession of Megaupload’s former web host, Carpathia – data that is costing the company $9,000 a day to host. With the government also against unfreezing Megaupload assets to allow the company to pay Carpathia to keep the data alive (data that could also help Megaupload’s case), the most likely outcome, unless the court intervenes, will see the data completely wiped, and any hope of recovery gone. Before this happens, the government says users can pay Carpathia for access, and then acquire the services of forensic experts (at further cost) to retrieve any data – an unrealistic proposal due to the thousands of dollars this would require. The other “alternative”, the government says, is for users to sue both Carpathia and Megaupload for breach of contract relating to the storage of their files, again, also very unrealistic.

In other words, the government is washing their hands of any responsibility in the matter. They closed down Megaupload and then decide to not give two craps about the resulting collateral damage. But as screwed up as this is, it’s also an important lesson for those that are relying on the “cloud” to store their digital assets. Cloud storage will usually prevent data loss as a result of hardware or software failure, but it won’t stop things like user error (“hmm, that big red button that says “DELETE ALL” looks tempting – I wonder what it does …”), hacked or banned accounts, or as in Megaupload’s case, catastrophic failure. So it’s best to have copies of your files both in online *and* offline locations, or at the very least, at two different cloud providers.

High Definition

Is Blu-ray on the way out? Anthony Wood thinks so. But then again, he’s the CEO of the company that makes Roku, a popular little streaming set-top box, and both Blu-ray, the disc, and Blu-ray players are competitors.

Roku 2 XS

Roku currently provides a level of service that Blu-ray players and Smart TVs cannot provide with their in-built streaming apps, according to Roku’s CEO

So will Blu-ray be obsolete in four year’s time, as Wood predicts? If in four year’s time, most homes can access the Internet at speeds far greater than today’s average, then yes, this could be a possibility. If not, then the most efficient way to deliver the GBs of data needed for each HD movie (and if 4Kx2K become more common, the tens of GBs could grow to hundreds of GBs), might still be found on some kind of physical media, even if isn’t Blu-ray.

Whatever happens though. I for one hopes that ownership, and preferably ownership of something physical, is still reality 4 or 10 years down the track. I’m a huge supporter of cloud based streaming and all that, but I also love being able to hold something in my hands, or display something in my TV room, and I think a lot of movie lovers are like me in this regard.

Gaming

In gaming news, the May NPD results have been released, but once again, only Microsoft took the risk of releasing hardware figures. That’s probably because they won the month again with 40% of the home based console market share, but only 160,000 units sold. That’s a 40% decline compared to the same month last year, and you can see why many in the industry are so worried (and why “some” have stopped releasing detailed hardware figures).

With the next gen consoles from Microsoft and Sony not arriving until 2013 (got a news story on the next Xbox that was too late for publishing for this WNR, so I’ll cover it early next week), and the Wii U only coming at the end of the year, things are unlikely to pick up until then.

I’m still optimistically (but perhaps also foolishly) hoping that someone will leak the hardware data for the Wii or the PS3 in the next few days, and so the NPD monthly feature can resume, but it’s not looking good at the moment. If it doesn’t happen, I’ll get into more details about the May NPD in the next WNR.

Nothing much left to say in this WNR, so let’s call it a day. See you next week.