Archive for the ‘NPD Analysis’ Category

Weekly News Roundup (21 April 2013)

Sunday, April 21st, 2013

Plenty to go through in this downer of a week, so let’s not waste any time …

Copyright

Is it still going on? Apparently, yes. Viacom is still suing Google’s YouTube for copyright infringement, despite a 2010 court ruling throwing out the case via a summary judgement in favor of Google/YouTube. That decision was appealed, partially successfully, and the case was directed back to the lower courts. But once again, Judge Louis Stanton has ruled in favor of Google, arguing that YouTube was under the protection of the DMCA’s Safe Harbor provision. And guess what? Viacom is going to appeal this decision too.

It’s all getting quite boring now, to be honest. The two companies are actually working side by side these days, so only Viacom knows what the point of the lawsuit is at the moment. That Viacom is still not letting go is probably more face saving than an actual sense of feeling wronged, and whatever YouTube has done in the past, what it does now (in terms of what users do with the service, and what YouTube does for content holders) is so far removed from what went on before, it’s practically like suing a different website.

Just move on Viacom. Everybody’s bored already, including  the judges, and probably your shareholders as well. Concentrate on actually making content that people want to pay for, instead of blaming everyone else for your woes.

Speaking of things that people actually want to pay for, Netflix’s plan to fight off its old and new subscription-VOD competitors appears to be working, as its original programming has helped the company to gain new subscribers. But it’s Netflix’s old business, the DVD (and Blu-ray) rental one, that is now becoming a risk for the company, an analyst has warned.

Photo of Netflix on iPad

Netflix’s growth is dependent on revenue from its disc based business, but with that shrinking, Netflix may be at risk says analyst

While Netflix has over 29 million streaming subscribers, 64% of the company’s 2013 revenue is still expected to come from disc based subscribers. In other words, disc rentals are funding Netflix’s streaming expansion plans, and with disc revenue expected to continue to fall, it could endanger Netflix’s plan to expand to more locations around the world, as well as fund new original programs.

If anything, it seems Netflix’s current problem stem from the fact that it’s too good for its price of $7.99 per month. Compare to say HBO, who can get away with $15 per month for only a few hit shows, Netflix, now with original programming, offers much more (and an essential babysitting tool for any parent or guardian). The increasing cost of securing rights to shows and movies, and increasing competition from the likes of Amazon and Redbox, all means that Netflix is still over-reliant on its declining disc based business to keep the company profitable and in expansion mode.

Subscription VOD is currently stuck with the low cost model first pioneered by Netflix, but I suspect going forward, there will need to be tweaks to the pricing model. Perhaps we’ll see an introduction to a “premium” subscription tier that includes more fresh and original content than the “basic” $7.99 package, and that may be needed to offset the billions Netflix currently spends on licensing and production.

And who wouldn’t pay another $5 or even $10 per month if it meant they could watch new seasons of shows like House of Cards and Arrested Development?

——

It didn’t incite as much hatred as SOPA, but CISPA may be just as bad, and unfortunately, the US House of Reps passed it with an overwhelming majority on Thursday. The CISPA cybersecurity bill will enable private business to share all your most private information with any government agency that requests it, and allows warrant-less database searches. Emails, photos and even passwords could all be shared with government agencies against your will, and there’s nothing you can do about it – CISPA ensure this.

Typically, supporters of this overreaching bill says that it’s targeting terrorists not ordinary citizens, and Rep. McCaul of Texas drove home this point even more clearly by actually using the terrible events in Boston as justification for CISPA.

But unlike SOPA, there isn’t the united front against CISPA that can work together to kill it off before it becomes law. For one, the likes of Apple, Google and Yahoo are cautiously supporting CISPA, despite opposition from the likes of the EFF and the ACLU. At least this time, the White House seems to be on our side, with President Obama threatening to veto the bill in its current form, and the Senate, having already turned away a previous version of CISPA once before, may have something to say about it too.

Gaming

Sony says they’re not going to make the same mistakes they made with their PS3 launch, and will launch the PS4 at a good price.

A photo of the New Xbox 360

Could a cheaper Xbox 360 keep the console alive when the Xbox 720 and PS4 (also to be cheaper at launch) arrives?

The PS3 was launched at a price that was a lot higher than that of rival consoles at the time (in Australia, the launch price of the 60GB console was close to the $USD 900 mark). This was despite Sony still losing money on each console sold. The reason for the high price was the included Blu-ray drive, and Sony argued that since Blu-ray players were quite expensive at the time, the PS3 actually represented good value for those also looking for a Blu-ray player.

This move paid off by ensuring Blu-ray won the highly tedious HD wars, but the victory came at the cost of lost market share to the likes of Nintendo and Microsoft. It also ensured Sony lost a ton of money for the first few years of the PS3.

But with Blu-ray players worth almost nothing these days (saw one today advertised for $USD 40), there aren’t any reasons why the PS4’s price point should be any higher than that of its rivals.

Although it could still be a lot higher than that of the Xbox 360, as Microsoft may be releasing a $99 version of the console to be launched along with the Xbox 720. It may be a response to the Xbox 720’s lack of backwards compatibility, but it could also be a move on Microsoft’s part to add new customers for the console. It might target those that want it as a cheap media streamer, with the added bonus of heaps of games of all types, from the casual/family to the hardcore. The only thing better than it would be a $99 PS3 (hint, hint)!

The cheap Xbox 360 and the cheaper (on debut) PS4 should help lift video game sales, but for now, things are still stuck in the doldrums. The March 2013 NPD US video game sales data has been released, and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 was top of the consoles with 261,000 units solds, but still down nearly 30% compared to a year ago. I actually want to wait a bit to see if any more data emerges for the Wii U in particular before commenting further on March’s NPD results, so let’s talk about it next week.

And that’s it for this edition of the WNR. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (24 March 2013)

Sunday, March 24th, 2013

SimCity. The game you love to hate. Or hate to love. I don’t know, one of those. I actually like the game and I find myself quite addicted to it. So it’s unfortunate that the game, in it’s current form, is a broken mess. Therefore, I’m treating it more like it’s an early beta version, and using it to learn how the game works, rather than be too emotionally attached to my metropolis creations (since I’ve already lost a city to one of the numerous city destroying bugs, I can’t afford to be too attached). My advice? Don’t pay full price for the game until most of the time wasting, soul crushing bugs have been fixed.

On to the news roundup …

Copyright

A major decision in the U.S. Supreme Court this week, and a win for “common sense”. The court upheld the “first-sale doctrine”, overruling previous lower court decisions that ruled this doctrine did not cover foreign based works. It all came about when a textbook maker sued a eBayer for buying cheaper textbooks from overseas and selling them on eBay. The lower court initially ruled in favour of the textbook maker, and awarded a ridiculous $600,000 in damages to them. But subsequent appeals ensured the case was heard in front of the highest court of the land, and finally a copyright ruling that makes sense.

Had the ruling, which had a 6-3 split, gone the other way, it would have meant that websites like eBay, game stores, and even libraries, would be under new scrutiny in regards to goods originally purchased from overseas. Even garage sales would have been under threat if “first-sale” did not apply to foreign based goods.

Rooting for such a radical new interpretation of the copyright law, that would severely limit the rights of consumers, were the RIAA, the MPAA and even the Obama administration, a reliable friend of the former two.

While the principle of first-sale is sound, and now reconfirmed, copyright holders have already found many ways to bypass this anyway. Through the use of complicated licensing terms, and DRM, game, movie and music publishers have found it easy so far to prevent the resale of digital goods. That’s why you can sell your iPod, but not the music collection contained within, and why game publishers go to extremes to discourage the sale of second hand games (using one time activation codes and whatnot). I would imagine the marketplace would be far more competitive, and consumer in a far better position, if “first-sale” was vigilantly applied to digital goods too, but that’s just me.

——

Home Taping is Killing Music

Web music piracy is just as dangerous as home taping was

Common sense would dictate that there isn’t a one-to-one correlation between piracy and lost sales. But what if there’s a correlation between piracy and a *gained* sale?

That’s one of the conclusions to come out of a new European Commission report into music piracy, and it finds that the links between piracy and lost sales are tenuous at best. The study was limited to only looking at website visits, and found that for every 10% increase in visits to websites offering illegal music downloads, there was a 2% – 4% increase in visits to legal music sale websites. The report did not have data on actual music transactions though, but these statistically significant results should not be ignored either.

Overall, the study found that in a hypothetical absence of illegal music downloads (not gonna happen!), people aren’t going to jump straight to buying music, something that’s plainly obvious to most people I would gather. So instead of being the big revenue killer that piracy has been thought of, it may well be a simple matter of “trespassing of private property rights”. As a content producer myself, I can see how, even without revenue loss, the “trespassing of private property rights” might otherwise make me extremely annoyed – nobody wants their private property rights to be violated – but I also understand how everything in the Internet age works, and that having my content pirated, while still annoying, is also a badge of honor of sorts. If my content wasn’t being distributed without my authorisation, it probably just means my content wasn’t good or popular enough in the first place. And if it gets pirated, then it’s up to me to leverage the popularity of my content and monetize it, and there are definitely ways to do this.

The Internet has democratized the natural selection process for content. Instead of publishers having a large hand in selecting what we should and shouldn’t be consuming, the Internet allows the consumer to make their choices directly, bypassing the publishing industry altogether if necessary. That’s what scares the companies that’s represented by the RIAA and the MPAA the most, because they don’t want to lose control. DRM, while being advertised as an anti-piracy tool, is really just a new way for Big Content to maintain control. That it doesn’t work to stop piracy isn’t an issue at all, not when it successfully forces consumers to use content only in the ways publishers want them to.

Just like how if you want to play SimCity, you have to buy it from Origin and play it via Origin. If you don’t like it, you can’t simply grab the Steam version because there is no Steam version.

I think I’ve played every Sim City game ever made, and I simply love the series, even the demented way SimCity 4 managed traffic, or the way you ended up with a city full of Arcologies (and police stations) in Sim City 2000. And this is why, despite the horrible DRM and the known issues with it, I, and many other SimCity fans, still went out and purchased the game. It’s this kind of loyalty that EA has exploited to their advantage, at the expense of everyone else, and not too dissimilar to the way Blizzard launched Diablo III.

SimCity Rollback Error

The dreaded SimCity “rollback” error, that could reset the city you’ve spent hours building

But what seemed like launch glitches with the DRM, now seem like a much bigger issue, as while servers are now widely available, the whole online based gaming experience still leaves much to be desired. Updating cities in the same region can be cumbersome, often taking minutes, even though the instantaneous change is what’s needed. Some sync fails to occur entirely, until one logs off and logs back on. Server still become unresponsive at times, forcing gamers to wait 10 or 15 minutes at the city loading screen, with no explanation for the wait. And for no reason, changes made to the city can be lost and you’re forced to rollback to an earlier version (or even lose the city and region entirely, in some case). And it seems that forcing some of the processing online is not only not helpful (and not an efficient way of doing things), it’s producing gameplay bugs in the game’s traffic and trading management systems.

EA and Maxis defended the use of always-on DRM by saying that some vital game functions had to be pushed online for processing. While this may be true for those playing the game with friends, hackers have shown that this statement is false when it comes to those playing single player games, by producing a hack that allows offline play. As a bonus, the mod also fixes many of the issues that plague the game.

But the hack also allows public cities to be taken over and destroyed, it seems, suggesting that EA and Maxis’s always-online DRM isn’t doing it main job of protecting the integrity of the system from hackers. Again, not too dissimilar to what happened to Diablo III.

As I said a couple of issues ago, a good DRM, or “always-online” implementation, has to be invisible. It should sit in the background and not ever have to make the gamer aware of its presence, while doing everything it is designed to do, including anti-piracy and anti-hacking, and if possible, should bring added value to the game. The SimCity always-online implementation does exactly the opposite in all of these areas.

That SimCity attempts to add an online component to single player gaming isn’t the problem, the problem is that SimCity doesn’t do this properly. Even if we call SimCity an online game, even though most of its gameplay elements can be done offline, the problem is that SimCity is still just a really bad online game. And that’s inexcusable.

While I’m pretty confident that there hasn’t been a lot of pirated versions of SimCity being used by people – the legit version is broken enough as it is, no one will bother with the pirated version, and with SimCity doing good business, does this all count as a financial success for EA and to a lesser extent, Maxis? Fellow game developer, and creator of the mega indie hit Super Meat Boy, Tommy Refenes, says that successful anti-piracy, if it meant ruining it for paying customers, doesn’t make financial sense at all.

Super Meat Boy

Super Meat Boy has been pirated at least 200,000 times, but has sold millions of copies – the creator isn’t too fussed about those 200,000 “lost sales”

Speaking from his own experience with SimCity, a game he purchased but has subsequently requested a refund for, Refenes goes on to explain how losses due to piracy is not something a company can put onto the balance sheet, as it’s not something you can even calculate with any degree of accuracy. On the other hand, angry customers returning products is something that ends up written in red ink, and has long term repercussions that may be irreparable (see Ubisoft’s DRM Adventures).

Refenes also explains that because there are infinite copies of something digital, it is entirely different to say the theft of a physical copy of something. Stringent security measures at say KMart, where Refenes used to work, may help to stop the theft and return the stolen item back to store shelves, with a measurable loss prevented, the same cannot be said of digital piracy, he says. “Your game is infinitely replicable at a negligible or zero cost (the cost bandwidth off your own site or nothing if you’re on a portal like Steam, eShop, etc). Digital inventory has no value. Your company isn’t worth an infinite amount because you have infinite copies of your game. As such, calculating worth and loss based on infinite inventory is impossible. If you have infinite stock, and someone steals one unit from that stock, you still have infinite stock. If you have infinite stock and someone steals 1 trillion units from that stock , you still have infinite stock. There is no loss of stock when you have an infinite amount … it is potentially one less sale but that is irrelevant. Everyone in the world with an internet connection and a form of online payment is a potential buyer for your game but that doesn’t mean everyone in the world will buy your game.”

It’s something that I’ve mentioned before, but the way game publishers are using DRM these days goes beyond a simple comparison of physical versus digital. It’s not just that they are employing security measures, it’s that they’re employing really really bad and intrusive security measures. The equivalent of DRM isn’t a security guard at the entrance of the store, it’s the equivalent of a pat-down search for every customer that leaves the store (or a full body cavity search in the case of always-on DRM – a traumatic experience that will be relived in your head every time you use said product). No store would do that and risk losing their once loyal customers, so why do game publishers think that this is okay? The only reason I can think of is that unlike most stores, game publisher’s products are exclusives. You can’t simply go to a more customer friendly store and buy the same product, you’re stuck with SimCity from EA’s Origin.

Or maybe not. Maybe there *is* a more customer friendly store, and more than one actually, and not only do they not punish you for spending your hard earned money, they’re not even charging you for anything. That store’s name is piracy, and in the battle between free with a side helping of guilt and not free with a big chunk of frustration, the choice that doesn’t frustrate wins most of the time.

Gaming

It’s NPD time, this time for February 2013. Once again, the Xbox 360 was the most popular console in the U.S. market for the month of February, selling some 302,000 units. This beat the PS3’s 263,000. The Wii U languished at the bottom, selling only 66,000 units, 70% of which were the deluxe model of the console.

So once again, we have a double digit decline for retail sales, and both Microsoft and Sony will hope their new console will have a better start than the Wii U.

There’s a lot of talk about the casual gaming market, previously dominated by the Wii, now taken over by mobile apps. Most of the talk has been about how popular smartphones and tablets have gotten. The Wii U even tried to jump on the bandwagon by adding a tablet into the mix, but it doesn’t seem to have worked. But surely, it’s the value proposition that has had the most dramatic change. The choice is now between paying $50+ for a console game that you probably don’t even have time to play, versus a 99 cent game that you can enjoy at a moment’s notice in your spare time. It is comparing apple to oranges, but entertainment is entertainment. Just like how video games become a better value proposition than movies and music (and why it has necessitated the lowering of the price of these forms of entertainment), app gaming has become a better value proposition than console gaming. It may really be that simple.

But I’m sure someone will find a way to blame piracy for everything.

With the 2,000 word barrier broken according to WordPress’s word counter, it’s time to wrap things up. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (17 February 2013)

Sunday, February 17th, 2013

A belated Happy Chinese New Year of the Snake. I was born in the year of the Monkey, and they say only the Monkey can handle Snakes, so all your Snakes better behave yourselves. Those born in the Year of the Snake should also wear something red on them at all times to deflect bad luck, preferably something given to them rather than something they’ve bought themselves.

In this first WNR for the Year of the Snake (technically not true), there are quite a few news items to go through, so let’s get started.

Copyright

Joining the list of people who really shouldn’t be downloading pirated videos may be FBI employees, caught downloading hit TV shows such as Homeland and Dexter. They join employees from Hollywood studios, the DoJ, congressional offices, national parliaments, anti-piracy lobbyists and many other places where they’re pretty sensitive about this whole Internet piracy things.

And even if they weren’t downloading at work, something most people would probably not do, many are probably downloading in the privacy of their own homes.

While this highlights how widespread the “problem” of piracy is, to me, this isn’t actually reason to take harsher action against it. I liken this Piracy Plague® to jaywalking, something that almost everyone does (while knowing they probably shouldn’t), and that they do get in trouble if they’re caught doing it, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s not exactly a high priority for law enforcement (even though jaywalking, unlike pirated downloads, can lead to a life and death situations, so it’s actually more serious than piracy will ever be). I guess the difference is that there is no such thing as an anti-jaywalking lobby group (Car Manufacturers of America? ), so nobody cares.

The other major difference being that there is no monetary loss involved, although that’s debatable with piracy as well.

But there also exist a difference in solving these two problems. If it is identified that people are jaywalking in particular area, and it’s leading to a public safety issue, I would hope there’s an effort to find out why people are jaywalking excessively in this area, but not in others. Perhaps the lack of pedestrian crossings could be the issue. But for piracy, there’s strong pressure against finding out why it happens, with the focus is instead on labeling people who download as criminals, and leveling penalties against them. So instead of adding a pedestrian crossing to fix the problem, the focus would instead be on an ad campaign linking jaywalking to terrorism or something like that, and then setting up a hidden police presence around the corner and fining those that get caught, all the while ignoring the real cause of the “infringement”.

SoShare Logo

SoShare promises to combine the best of cyberlocker storage with BitTorrent technology. It might run into some legal headwind, mind you …

But soon there may be a new and better way for these FBI agents to get their Homeland fix. BitTorrent Inc has launched a new cyberlocker storage service that promises unlimited uploads, and unlimited transfer limits, and uses BitTorrent technology to speed up downloads. The new service, SoShare, has just been made live as a public beta test, and only requires a browser plug-in in order to utilize the BitTorrent based enhancements.

SoShare works by allowing the the uploader and downloaders to use their own bandwidth to help other downloaders speed up their downloads, much like how BitTorrent works. A master copy of the file is also store on SoShare’s servers to allow downloading to continue even if the original uploader is not online.

So with BitTorrent coming to the under pressure cyberlocker scene, the most immediate question that comes to mind, at least for me, is the copyright question. A quick look at SoShare’s copyright policy shows all the typical DMCA related information, but as SoShare does store a copy of the uploaded file, therein lies the danger from a copyright point of view. SoShare will have to be extra responsive to DMCA takedown requests to protect themselves. So far, the service is offered for free, with no monetization and no financial incentives for uploaders, which should also offer some additional protection if the service is ever accused of “incentivizing” illegal uploads.

But for downloaders, SoShare downloading may be a better bet privacy wise than BitTorrent downloads. While not much is known about how exactly the service works, one would hope it does not easily make public the details of all connections to the download swarm like BitTorrent naturally does.

——

In other news, The Pirate Bay is threatening to sue an anti-piracy group for copyright infringement. And no, I did not mix up the subjects in the preceding sentence.

Fake Pirate Bay

This “fake” Pirate Bay, set up by an anti-piracy agency, may be infringing on the copyright of the real Pirate Bay

This all started when Finnish anti-piracy group CIAPC launched a spoof website that imitates the look and feel of The Pirate Bay, in a perhaps misguided attempt to educate the masses about the legal alternatives to piracy. The problem though is that the website wasn’t so much an imitation, but a downright like for like copy in many instances, included the CSS file, which was virtually identical to the one used by the real Pirate Bay. So much for educating others to respect copyright!

This blatant theft, which is against The Pirate Bay’s usage policies, has prompted The Pirate Bay to consider taking legal action against CIAPC, if the group does not “move on”, not just from the spoof website campaign, but from copyright enforcement in general. With The Pirate Bay generally supporting a copy-free ideal, their threat definitely did have the feel of a “not sure if serious” vibe to it. Look here, I for one would love to report on ironic lawsuits, just as long as TPB people do indeed make clear that irony is a clear intent (unlike a certain Mr. David).

Regardless, the CIAPC does deserves everything bad that happens to them, as these are the same people, if you can remember, that raided the home of a 9 year-old and snatched away her Winnie the Pooh laptop for the heinous act of downloading a song.

And in ominous news of the week, the W3C has asked the HTML Working Group to consider adding native DRM support to HTML, to placate the likes of Netflix, BBC, Google and Microsoft. These majors are hoping for a native HTML 5 solution to web video streaming, but that can only happen if DRM is present. To be fair, the requirement for DRM does not come directly from these companies, but from the overly paranoid content producers that supply these companies with content. No DRM, no content.

Gaming

The January NPD US video game sales report has been released, and it’s grim reading for Nintendo’s new flagship console, the Wii U. As per the course, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 remained the best selling console for the month, with 281,000 units sold. This is actually up on January 2012, but only because of the 5-week and 4-week reporting difference between the two Januarys.

With Sony not providing any hardware sale details, but based on the Xbox 360’s “44 percent share of current-generation console sales” figure, that would most likely put the PS3 at around 200,000 units sold, and the Wii at slightly more than half of this.

Which makes the Wii U’s 57,000 (a figure that comes from sources that have access to more detailed NPD reports) rather pathetic. As a comparison, the original Wii sold 435,000 units at the same time in its release cycle, and that was with stock shortage constraints in place. The Wii U, being widely available in stores, is already looking like a flop given the dramatic fall-off from the early sales figures. Still, it’s probably too soon to tell if the Wii U is dead in the water, but unless Nintendo have some killer must-have games and apps out in the next few month, it’s not looking good at all.

Xbox 360 Kinect vs PlayStation Move

Kinect beat Move because of Sony’s “stumbling failure”, more so than anything Microsoft did, according to engineer who designed the original Xbox

With such dismal numbers for the Wii U, and the Xbox 360 selling 5 times as many units, it almost feels churlish to talk about this next story. With 76 million units sold, and one in three of them having a Kinect camera connected (albeit perhaps not used … based on personal experience), and with 46 million members connected online, can the Xbox 360 and the Xbox platform really be considered a failure? Apparently it can be, according to one of the engineers that started this whole Xbox project, Nat Brown.

Brown describes the last couple of year’s development of the Xbox platform as “painful to watch”, mainly because the console will lose the “living room war” to the likes of Apple and Google, unless “somebody with a brain” starts running things.

Nat notes the biggest problem with the Xbox platform is one, indie development, and two, a good user experience. It’s worth noting that both of these areas are where the likes of iOS and Android shine, and Nat says that what Microsoft is doing simply isn’t good enough.

And Nat has a great point. Android development can be started with almost zero cost, and apps can be published for not much more. iOS development is a bit more expensive due to Apple’s more stringent requirements regarding coding environments (ie. Mac only), but it’s still well within reach for most semi-professional coders and cashed up enthusiasts. But more importantly, apps published on both platforms are given plenty of opportunities to be found and are actively promoted. On the other hand, Nat says Microsoft offers indie developers very little help in terms of accessibility, support and promotion, which has alienated “a generation of loyal kids and teens to making games” (not just kids and teens, but also 30-something guys with too much free time on their hands).

Nat’s other big gripe with Xbox is the user experience, the inconsistent nature of it all, and how counter-intuitive it can be given today’s more casual user base. Anyone who has tried to access the initially heavily promoted Kinect Fun Labs on the new Xbox 360 dashboard will certainly agree with this point – the fact that someone had to write a guide on how to access it shows how the UI has failed.

But to be fair to the Xbox 360, none of the other consoles are doing much better, a point Nat concedes as he also says that Microsoft’s recent successes have been due to the “stumbling failure” of Sony and Nintendo (Kinect vs PS Move, and the Wii in general). Might as well add the Wii U to that list of “stumbling failures” too, I suppose.

And with that, we come to the end of this week’s WNR. Hope you’ve enjoyed reading it more than I enjoyed writing it (well, given that I didn’t enjoy writing it, it’s kind of a low bar). See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (13 January 2013)

Sunday, January 13th, 2013

It’s back to work for most people, which sucks, but at least there does seem to be news again. Yeah, that’s just what you need after your first week back at work, a long and ranty WNR to read!

I’ll try to keep this as painless as possible, so let’s not waste more time.

Copyright

A new study has proved what most of us suspected anyway, that DMCA take-downs, and even closing down the likes of Megapload won’t really do much in terms of reducing the availability of pirated downloads from cyberlocker sites.

The problem, according to the study, is that the moment you remove one upload, many others pop up in its place. And even removing entire file hosting websites, either through censorship, domain seizures or a well coordinated international law enforcement action like with the Megaupload shutdown, won’t work because new sites will just pop up the next day. In fact, the closure of Megaupload may have had a detrimental effect on efforts to curb cyberlocker piracy, because it has fragmented the upload scene to the point where uploaders are uploading to multiple cyberlocker sites to avoid any one being taken down. It’s like blowing up a big asteroid headed for earth, only for it to fragment into thousands of smaller and still dangerous pieces still coming at you.

In other words, the cat-and-mouse game between pirates and those seeking to reduce pirated uploads is being truly, fundamentally and comprehensively won by the mice. Not surprising when the ratio is probably something like 17,374 mice to every cat, mind you.

Rapidshare logo

RapidShare is forcing its users to go legit with transfer caps, which has only managed to force some of its users to transfer to competing services

So what’s the solution? RapidShare’s solution to keep pirated content off its network is to implement a transfer cap system that went into effect in late November. Since then, RapidShare’s pageview traffic appears to have dropped by more than a third, although it has no doubt led to probably an even greater reduction in the amount of pirated content on the network. But all this means is that piracy was shifted to other sites.

For those file hosting providers that are not self-policing, the study suggests that perhaps going after payment providers that some of the more blatantly pro-piracy cyberlockers may be more effective, but the best way the study concludes, as it always has been, is to innovate. Instead of trying to reduce piracy, reduce the demand for piracy by introducing good value, innovative services that people actually want to use. An obvious solution that the content industry seems totally oblivious to.

Innovation can be expensive and prone to disaster though. But part of the reason why the content industries don’t seem to innovate as much as, say, the IT industry, in my opinion, is that the content industries (especially the music and movie mobs) seem to enjoy special protection through copyright legislation. This means they have very little incentive to do anything new when there’s already legislation there to protect your ageing business model, and plenty of opportunity to pay for new legislation. This is the kind of thing borne out of the initial desire to “protect” capitalism by some misguided notion that this means giving corporations whatever they want, the kind of thing which actually leads away from the free market capitalism model that the politicians creating these kind of laws actually believe in.

This was something raised by Republican Study Committee (RSC) staffer Derek Khanna in his copyright memo, now simply referred to as that “sensible” one. You know the one that was canned almost instantly after it was published by the RSC, and possibly the catalyst behind the  firing of Derek. This week, Derek, now out of a job, was able to speak  for the first time about the entire ordeal.

Derek Khanna

Derek Khanna, the RSC staffer fired after writing a sensible memo on copyright, speaks out on his ordeal

The RSC canned the memo because it claimed that insufficient review had gone into the memo before it was published, but according to Derek, there was nothing out of the ordinary for the process that went into getting his memo published. If anything, it received more feedback than what is deemed necessary.

What was surprising to Derek, but hopefully not to readers of the WNR, was the backlash the memo received from the content industries. All Derek had wanted was to start a debate, but it seems that’s the last thing movie studios and record labels, long since a protected species under the guardianship of the political structure in Washington, wanted.

As for the firing, Derek was unable to speak candidly about it for obvious reasons, but according to the The Washington Examiner, Tennessee congresswoman Rep. Marsha Blackburn, who has close ties to the record industry due to her district’s geographical location in the suburbs of Nashville, was somewhat instrumental in kicking Derek out of the RSC. So for now, the record industry (and the movie industry) remains a protected species, but one that has had its instincts dulled to the point where it isn’t able to live unassisted in the wild, not with competing species the likes of Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Spotify all flourishing on their own abilities. This is not a sustainable situation, in my opinion.

High Definition

If you had to sum up this year’s CES using using 5 unique letters and a single number, then OLED and 4K is all you need. The 4K hype seems to be gathering pace especially quickly.

Almost all of the major TV manufactures announced both OLED TVs and 4K TVs (or TVs with both), even though in my opinion, OLED is going to be the one that makes the most immediate impact. Boring old 1080p OLED TVs can tap into the vast amount of existing HD content and improve them immediately, but the lack of native 4K content should keep 4K away from the mainstream for a while yet.

Samsung Curve OLED TV

OLED might make the more immediate impact between it and 4K, as exhibitors at this year’s CES show off their OLED TVs, including this curved one

Sony has seen the content problem, and devised their own solutions of sorts – “Mastered in 4K” Blu-ray movies. Soon, Sony will release movies mastered from pristine 4K transfers (which isn’t actually something that hasn’t been done before, by many other studios, eg. Jaws) with extra focus on quality through the use of extra bitrate (those old enough will remember Sony’s similar attempt with Superbit DVDs). These Blu-ray titles, when upscaled and displayed on 4K TVs, is said to present a “near 4K” picture, which is actually kind of cynical when you think about it. That you can fluff around with a, no doubt super looking, 1080p stream and make people believe it’s “near 4K” probably says more about the lack of perceivable difference 4K TV is going to make, especially if one isn’t sitting within touching distance of the screen, or aren’t in possession of a 85″ monster. It’s also questionable whether simply throwing bits at an AVC/VC-1 encoding will actually dramatically improve the picture, diminished returns and all that.

Well at the very least it’s better than Sony’s current solution to the lack of 4K content problem, notably “loaning” 4K TV owners with hard-drives pre-loaded with selected 4K content. Their upcoming online 4K video distribution service does sound a bit more promising though.

The truth of the matter is, due to the limited nature of the human perception system in relation to small details, 4K TVs aren’t going to be the game changer that HDTV was, not unless you go above a certain size (at which point the pixel spacing problem may rear its ugly head). OLED’s superb and vibrant colours and deep deep blacks will give you a much bigger “wow factor”, even with existing 1080p content of which there’s a plentiful supply of. Now combine OLED and 4K, and you may have something that’s really really tempting, as long as you can stomach the astronomical price tag, that is.

Gaming

The December US NPD numbers are out, and once again, the Xbox 360 was on top. This is despite the global situation being reversed, with Sony’s PS3 just having managed  to outsell the Xbox 360 in the worldwide race, despite the Xbox 360 having had a year’s head start. But the situation in the US is actually getting worse for the PS3, with Microsoft happily promoting the fact that its Xbox 360, which sold 1.4 million units in December, sold more than twice as many units as the unnamed next best non-portable console, which had to be the PS3 because the Wii and Wii U sold nowhere near 700,000 units (475,000 and 460,000 units respectively for the Wiis).

The Xbox 360’s 1.4 million units, while impressive, still represented a 17% decline compared to December from a year ago. Still, the decline was smaller than in recent months.

Overall, 2012 was a disappointing year for the gaming industry revenue wise, at least compared to 2011. The age of the current generation of consoles is a major factor, but the lack of new game releases, 29% less than 2011, also contributed to a very lackluster year. On average though, each SKU generated 8% more unit sales and 11% more revenue, so there’s definitely some silver lining in this cloud.

Well, that’s that for the first real news week of 2013. See you next week.

R.I.P Aaron Swartz

Weekly News Roundup (16 December 2012)

Sunday, December 16th, 2012

Welcome to the third last WNR for 2012, or if you’re a believer in the Mayan calendar termination theory, THE LAST WNR EVER! The 22nd of December is going to be a disappointing day for a lot of people no matter what happens, but I’ll be out there celebrating “The World Didn’t End” day, if in fact the world did not end.

Very light news wise this week, but I do have a legitimate and medical excuse this time. For about half of the week, I was suffering from a pretty bad case of migraines, which still hasn’t fully recovered. I’ve had it maybe once or twice before, but it was usually cured by a good night’s sleep, but this one has been really persistent. The headache I can stand, but it’s the nausea that gets you. It does make you realise all the things you’ve previously taken for granted, like being able to scroll a webpage without wanting to hurl into a bucket. Having had to work with a pounding headache, light sensitivity and nausea, I will never complain about working in normal health ever again … well until the next time I get bored of work, at least.

Copyright

Starting with copyright news, not that we have much of anything else anyway, those keeping tabs on Google’s publicly available DMCA stats will have noticed the exponential rise in the number of takedown requests over the last couple of months, something that Google has noticed too.

Google DMCA Stats

The number of DMCA takedown requests that Google receives has increased by tenfold in the last 6 month

In fact, DMCA requests are up tenfold from just six months ago, from 1.2 million per month back in July, to 12 million in just the last 30 days. The dramatic rise in request has Google worried. Not just that it takes an enormous effort to process 12 million requests and counting, but also of the effect this has on the free flow of information, especially when relating to false positives. Google for the most part tries to identify URLs that shouldn’t really be removed, but as Digital Digest found out earlier in the year, the system is by no means fool proof. That a company hired by Warner Bros. to recently locate and submit DMCA requests tried to remove an IMDb entry for one of the studio’s movies, along with many legitimate trailer and promotional links, shows that even content creators have something to lose when it comes to the way DMCA request work at the moment.

For once though, the MPAA agrees with Google that the current regime isn’t working. The only problem is that the MPAA thinks the collateral damage the current DMCA processing method should be made more deadly by introducing domain-level bans. Instead of banning each page individually, the MPAA would love nothing more than to be able to ban an entire domain name. And I’m sure I know which domains the MPAA already has in mind.

The obvious problems with this aside (I just hope they don’t ban IMDb.com, because it’s actually quite a useful little website for all involved), the real problem is that this kind of corporate controlled censorship doesn’t actually work to stop people from visiting these websites, let alone stop piracy, let alone help movie studios to make more money. Most of these websites don’t even rely on search engines for the majority of their traffic, so it’s all a bit pointless.

But since when has big content’s anti-piracy methods been anything but pointless?

Which is probably why the most successful anti-piracy initiative devised for the music industry has been something that the music industry fought hard against: Spotify. This week, the founder of Spotify Daniel Ek revealed his main motivation in coming up with Spotify, and it in fact was related to piracy. Ek wanted to create something that would defeat piracy by being better than it, and in the end, it took a lot of convincing for the music industry to actually sign up.

With Spotify now having 5 million paying subscribers worldwide, and more than half a billion dollars in revenue being generated for the music industry where previously there was none, it has to be considered a great success. I’m actually listening to Spotify while I’m writing this WNR, so even if my free ad-supported account doesn’t generate a lot of revenue for artists and labels, it’s more revenue than what would be generated by piracy.

Gaming

NPD this week released November’s US video game sales figures, the first set that includes the newly released Wii U. With Nintendo a little bit more forthcoming with their hardware sales stats, it was almost enough to grant us a full set of hardware sales figures (but Sony’s Scroogeness when it comes to PS3 sales data prevented this, sadly). So much so that I thought about doing a full NPD analysis just like in the good old days, but I ended up settling for a news article and a little bit more of an analysis right here.

The Wii U’s launch, at least in the US, looks like a success, but can also be classified as a failure, depending on where you stand. While raw sales figures (425,000 sold in the first week) were down compared to the Wii launch (475,000 sold), the pricier Wii U meant that Nintendo made more money from slightly fewer unit sales as a result. So in this respect, it was a good launch.

ZombieU on Wii U

The Nintendo Wii U should try and emulate the Xbox 360’s success in combining casual and hardcore gaming, with a good price, multimedia capabilities, and a great online community

But if you consider the fact that the Wii was coming off a largely unsuccessful Gamecube, the Wii U is coming off the ubiquitous Wii. With backward compatibility support, both in software and hardware, the natural upgrade path from the Wii to the Wii U is natural, but the sales figure so far suggests that perhaps it isn’t a natural choice for most to upgrade. On the other hand, the Wii was, by standards back then, a much more innovative console with a bigger “wow factor” than the Wii U , so perhaps it’s not a fair comparison to compare the two consoles after all.

I think this holiday period has come a little too early for the console in order for us to be able to tell whether it will be a gift-giver’s favourite just like the Wii was (or still is). Next year’s holiday period will be crucial for the console, so Nintendo has a lot of work to do between now and then to “sell” their console to the perhaps more skeptical public.

This year’s gift-giver’s favourite is the Xbox 360 though, having sold 1.26 million consoles, almost twice as popular as the next most popular console. The Xbox 360 currently has a great mix of good gaming, pricing, multimedia and online support, and it’s a formula that Nintendo will want to emulate with the Wii U.

You can tell us what you think of the Wii U by voting in this poll.

On that note, thus ends this latest installment of the WNR. See you in a week. Hopefully.