Archive for May, 2008

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Game Consoles – April 2008 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Friday, May 16th, 2008

The April 2008 NPD game console sales figures for the US has been released. This is the first month to include GTA IV numbers (albeit only the last few days of April), and there’s also Mario Kart on the Wii as well. A bumper month that is dominated by GTA IV in terms of software sales, but the hardware figures tell a different story. My prediction last months was this:

… the 360 will do very well in April due to GTA IV, if not in hardware sales, then in software sales … What’s really interesting is to see if the Wii will continue to have another good month, or will it suffer from not being on the GTA IV bandwagon? But then there’s Mario Kart, so you never know.

I think my prediction could be considered correct, although barely. It’s certainly more accurate than that guy Pachter over Wedbush Morgan, who predicted twice in a row that the PS3 would outsell the 360, but has been wrong twice in a row. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in April are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

  • Wii: 714,200 (Total: 9.5 million)  
  • DS: 414,800 (Total: 19.6 million)  
  • PSP: 192,700 (Total: 11.5 million)
  • Xbox 360: 188,000 (Total: 10.1 million)
  • PS3: 187,100 (Total: 4.2 million)
  • PS2: 124,400 (Total: 42.1 million)

    • NPD April 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2008)

    From the hardware results, it looks like that April was another great month for the Wii and that GTA IV had no positive effect on hardware sales at all. In fact, hardware sales for both PS3 and the Xbox 360 were down compared to the previous month. This is something no analyst had predicted, and it is a bit of a surprise. Perhaps May will tell us more, as maybe people were waiting for buy GTA IV hardware bundles which will be available in May. It is also worth noting that March included 5 weeks of sales results, whereas April only includes 4 (but this alone does not explain the 360/PS3 drop).

    Whatever the reasons, the 360 again out-sold the PS3, although by only 1,000 units or so. There hasn’t been this GTA led surge in PS3 sales as some have predicted due to people upgrading their PS2’s to play the previously PlayStation signature title. Again, perhaps that will materialize in the May figures instead. Another explanation could be that people who are likely to buy GTA games are those more likely to have already bought themselves a PS3/360, and so there’s no hardware sales surge coming. My opinion in that May will be the month to watch if you want to see GTA related hardware sales figures, as people without a PS3/360 will look at the GTA related fanfare, wait until the expected price drops/bundles occur, and then get themselves a new console with GTA IV included. This would explain why the software chart was dominated by GTA IV, yet the hardware chart went the opposite way.

    What can you say about the Wii that people haven’t already said? Amazing sales performance and seems to be getting stronger the longer it goes. The Wii almost double the sales of the PS3 and 360 combined (that’s nearly four times the sales of each of these consoles). Aiming a game console at the non gaming market was a stroke of genius (of course had it failed, we would call it something else entirely). Wii sales have been helped by Wii Fit and Mario Kart, two hit titles that was arriving in late April/early May and which may have laid the foundations for April’s Wii hardware performance.

    Now onto software sales, where as mentioned before, GTA IV dominated. And it’s a huge victory for the 360, when most analysts expected a close race between the 360 and PS3 versions of the game, with some even suggesting the PS3 will benefit more. Here’s the top 10 chart:

    1. Grand Theft Auto IV(Xbox 360, Rockstar) – 1,850,000
    2. Mario Kart w/ Wheel(Wii, Nintendo) – 1,120,000
    3. Grand Theft Auto IV(PS3, Rockstar) – 1,000,000
    4. Wii Play (Wii, Nintendo) – 360,000
    5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii, Nintendo) – 326,000
    6. Gran Turismo 5:  Prologue(PS3, Sony) – 224,000 
    7. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:  Explorers of Darkness (DS, Nintendo) – 202,000
    8. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:  Explorers of Time (DS, Nintendo) – 202,000
    9. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii, Activision) – 152,100
    10. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Xbox 360, Activision) – 141,000

    While GTA IV certainly dominated, it was Nintendo again the winner as they had 4 titles in the top 10. The Xbox 360 had 35.7% of all software sales, closely followed by the Wii on 35.1. PS3 software sales remain relatively poor at 22% while the DS rounded out things on 7.2%.

    The Xbox 360 version of GTA IV sold 1.85:1 compared to the PS3 version, which is a little bit less than the 2:1 ratio some analysts have claimed. This is not as bad as it seems for the PS3, as the Xbox 360 has a 70/30 lead over the PS3 in hardware sales, but only a 65/35 lead when it came to GTA IV sales. But I suppose that’s little comfort for Sony whose fortunes where definitely helped by the GTA series being timed exclusives on the PS2. As for all those that predicted the PS3 version would outsell the Xbox 360 version due to people upgrading their PS2’s, that may happen but it won’t be sudden and I think if people are happy with their PS2’s, they won’t upgrade to PS3’s no matter what (unless it becomes dirt cheap).

    What could be considered disappointing for Wii is that third-party games don’t seem to sell well on the platform. All the best selling titles are first-party games by Nintendo, and this can’t go on for too long without developers turning their resources to the other consoles. You will have to admit that nobody really knows how to exploit the Wii as well as Nintendo, and the Wii is an extremely difficult system to get things right on (ensuring games work well with the Wii-mote and nunchuck is a much bigger design challenge than most developers are used to).

    So it’s all eyes on May yet again. Will the Wii continue to perform as well, or will the GTA led hardware surge materialize?  Can the Xbox 360 version of GTA IV retain the 1.85:1 sales ratio compared to the PS3 version, or as some emerging reports tell us, could the lead actually grow wider? My prediction? I’d rather not, since most of us got it wrong for April when it came to GTA led hardware sales. But predictions are free, and I have no reputation to protect anyway so here’s goes: I predict there to be a 360/PS3 sales surge compared to this month (well it can’t go any lower, can it?). But the Wii sales will remain high, if not go higher thanks to Wii Fit (does that count as a software or hardware, or accessory?). GTA IV will continue to dominate the software charts, with the 360’s lead slightly narrowed compared to the PS3 version. Mario Kart and Wii Fit will sit highly on the software sales chart too (assuming Wii Fit counts as software). So it’s yet another wiin for Nintendo, I suspect.

    See you next month.

    Posted in Gaming, Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, NPD Analysis, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | 3 Comments »

    Weekly News Roundup (11 May 2008)

    Sunday, May 11th, 2008

    I’ve played GTA IV for a week now, and while I think it’s a great game, it does have some flaws. I think people got too excited handing out the 10/10 scores, and as with the Net media these days, one site does it and then everybody does it. It’s a great game no doubt, but perfect? Or even the best game in the last year? For a sandbox game fan and GTA maniac like myself, perhaps it is the best game of last year, but I’m sure there are games that are up there with it. It’s old, it’s cheap and it doesn’t have a storyline, but Crackdown on the 360 is an awesome game … makes GTA IV feel 2D by comparison (although I agree that giving Niko Bellic Spider-Man like abilities is a bit too much). I’m also not a big fan of the judder in the game, which some say is normal, but it’s something I can’t stand.

    Despite my time wasting in Liberty City this week (I’m now awesome at GTA darts, BTW), there was actually quite a bit of news, and only half of it was GTA related.

    CopyrightIn copyright news, the news of the week has been a good one for the MPAA. They won a judgement awarding them $110 million in damages to be paid by the owners of TorrentSpy. That got them all fired up and now their next target is The Pirate Bay, having asked for several million from them too. It’s unlikely the TorrentSpy people will not appeal this decision, and even more unlikely that they will have to pay anything, but neither compares to the impossibility of the MPAA getting their hands on TPB, or stopping torrent based piracy on the Net. Their other lawsuit involving IsoHunt is still going on, and both sides are awaiting a ruling which will finally decide if having .torrent files is the same as hosting pirated content.

    TorrentSpy ClosedWhile the MPAA might be enjoying the victory, the news has been less good for the RIAA. After their humiliation in court last week over what constitutes piracy, they have also suffered from the public backlash against DRM. But the RIAA is standing firm and claiming that DRM will make a comeback soon. Yeah right.

    New York’s AG recently proposed new anti-piracy laws. In case you’re wondering why so many new anti-piracy laws are being passed, then look closely at the lobby groups spending huge amounts of money getting their issues to be heard. Something fishy going on behind the scenes, perhaps happening in New York? And it’s not just New York, the US House of Congress also introduced a new crack down on copyright violations. Studios are spending huge money to get laws passed in their favour, but are they really that concerned about piracy or is it more about having more control over users and having laws that allow consumer rights to be stripped away bit by bit. We’ll report, you decide.

    Microsoft, at the brunt of DRM related controversy last week, has once more angered anti-DRM activists by suggesting a new update that will force copyright control on their Zune players. Did you hear that? That was the sound of the Zune dying a horrible death and the iPod taking full control of the portable player market. What is it with companies doing things that will hurt them more than it helps? Mass EffectElectronics Arts will introduce a new type of DRM on its new PC game releases, including the widely acclaimed Mass Effects. The new DRM will require an Internet connection that will dial back every week to ensure the serial used isn’t a pirated one. No Internet connection? No play! The public outrage was swift and vicious, and EA backed down by toning down the Net-based authentication required, which again raises the question of why introducing it in the first place if only to back down in a week and causing a lot of negative publicity in the process? Will companies ever learn?

    High DefinitionIn HD news, not much going on in the world of Blu-ray this week. Some “doom and gloom” articles are still being spun thanks to the sales figures from January to March, which recorded a huge drop and was reported on earlier here as mainly due to seasonal variations. Blu-ray is definitely not doing as well as it should, compared to DVDs at the same stage and now that it has no competitor. But it’s far from over yet, and without a competitor, time is no longer an enemy. Still, the latest Nielsen VideoScan results (for the week ending 4th May) aren’t looking too rosy, with Blu-ray vs DVD sales down 1% for Blu-ray to 5% vs 95%, with Blu-ray sales dropping 23% compared to the previous week (which was 7% down compared to the week before). But again, this is far from doom and gloom as Blu-ray sales are still up quite a bit compared to the same time last year, and that Blu-ray sales, unlike DVD sales (which was also down 5% compared to last week) are much more dependent on new releases, and no new major releases in that week meant worse sales. But Sony’s claim that they will raise the 5% to 50% in the next 7 months seems quite ridiculous now. Lies, damned lies, and statistics indeed.

    3D MoviePerhaps 3D movies will help Blu-ray. Samsung is set to release a new 3D TV that will aim to bring IMAX style 3D movies to your home, and I’m sure they will look great on HD as well. Perhaps it’s a gimmick like this that will drive Blu-ray sales, especially if the 3D components can be somehow integrated into Blu-ray players (HD DVD players supported mandatory USB connectors for just this sort of thing, but USB is not required on Blu-ray).

    And as expected, Microsoft once again denied rumours of a Blu-ray enabled Xbox 360. This must be the third time this year already. You have to wonder who is coming out with these rumours, if they are indeed false? Perhaps someone who wants to create some positive news for Blu-ray, and at the same time, highlight the major difference between the PS3 and Xbox 360? Gee, I wonder who that could be. I’ve said it before and I will say it again, I’m highly skeptical that the 360 will ever have a Blu-ray drive. The next Xbox console maybe, but I just can’t see it in the 360. One, because the drive would only be used for movies, not games like on the PS3, so it’s kind of a pointless addition to anyone who doesn’t use the noisy 360 to play movies. Two, by including a Blu-ray drive, that’s Microsoft basically admitting the PS3 is superior and it wants to copy it. The Xbox 360 will never be as good a Blu-ray player as the PS3, so why make the comparison when you don’t have to? The Wii doesn’t even play DVDs, and nobody is saying it needs that capabilty to compete with the 360/PS3, so why does the 360 need Blu-ray to compete with the PS3? I will say this though, that there are a lot of people who are quite bitter at the moment because the PS3 isn’t doing very well in the format war, not because it’s losing badly, but because it’s not winning handsomely as they had expected.  And everyone knows the delay to the release of the console due to delays to Blu-ray was what caused it (or rather, the earlier release of the 360 allowed it to gain crucial market share to win over consumer and developer confidence). The same people are the ones trying to suggest Blu-ray will help the PS3 win the console war, but in actual fact, it was the other way around (PS3 helping Blu-ray to win the format war). If the 360 gets a Blu-ray add-on or a built in drive, then it would represent the ultimate victory for these people. Which is why I don’t see it happening.

    (cue Microsoft announcing next week Blu-ray is coming to the 360)

    GamingIn gaming news, as expected, GTA IV broke all sales records. This was always going to be the title that bought the “next-gen” into “this-gen” (and this will be the last time I use the term “next-gen”, unless I’m talking about the PS4 or Xbox 720 or WiiII or something). Microsoft was quick to point that that is has won the GTA IV war, having sold more copies and having seen hardware sales jump as a result too. Some will say that one shouldn’t believe MS’s claims, and I would normally agree, but there’s a lack of any noise from the usually spin-tastic Sony PR department about GTA IV, which leads me to believe that MS is telling the truth. Microsoft was also quick to point out that the only console you can play GTA IV in full 720p glory is the Xbox 360. This, plus the freezing issue which a patch is now available for but apparently doesn’t fix the problem, at least not all occurrences of it, means that GTA IV’s release could definitely have gone a lot smoother for Sony. And then there’s the issue of exclusive downloadable content for the Xbox 360, but Sony is trying to muddy the waters by suggesting they will get DLC too. These two possible facts actually don’t conflict with each other … nobody has ever said that all DLC is exclusive to the Xbox 360, just two episodes worth. But if Sony is suggesting future DLC will be PS3 exclusive, then that’s just misleading because there’s no evidence of it and I’m sure Rockstar’s contract with Microsoft won’t allow it.

    PS3 vs Xbox 360So while Sony PR can’t talk much about GTA IV without getting attacked for having a lower res, broken and exclusive lacking version, then they will have to talk about something else. The PS3 has done well in Europe, and total sales have exceeded the Xbox 360 figures even though the PS3 was released much later. No spin there, just facts. What could be considered spin is Sony saying they will overtake all others, including the Xbox 360 and Wii, both of which are miles ahead of the PS3 in the US. I always find it funny to hear Sony talk about their 10 year plan and that the PS3 hasn’t reached its full potential yet. It is true that there is more to come from the PS3, but three years ago, nobody could have predicted the rise of the Wii, so even if the PS3 can squeeze out more in the next 5 years or so, will it still be an attractive console by that time? For one, they can’t predict what Microsoft and Nintendo have up their sleeves, so if Sony are going to rest on their laurels and rely solely on developers getting more out of the PS3, then I think that’s a disaster waiting to happen.

    And speaking of what’s up Microsoft’s sleeves, a new Xbox 360 build could be here by August with a new GPU chip codenamed Jasper. It promises lower heat production, and hence, lower noise and more reliability. Microsoft will probably introduce the Wii like controller for the 360 at the same time as well. A cooler, more reliable and quieter Xbox 360 is exactly what Microsoft needs right now to compete with the PS3, and not a Blu-ray drive in sight! The GTA IV related victory has given Microsoft a lot of confidence, and some analysts have already concluded that the 360 will win the “current-gen” console war, mainly due to a superior games library and multiplayer community. I’m not so sure about that, but you can’t argue with the 360’s games choice and Xbox Live, and not letting Sony maintain 80% of the market is a victory of sorts already.

    Of course, the real winner could be the Wii. While everyone is talking about GTA IV, Nintendo has been quietly selling loads of Mario Kart and Wii Fit, making Wii Fit the best selling exercise equipment of all time. What, even more popular than the Thighmaster I hear you ask. Yes, more popular than that and Jane Fonda exercise videos … COMBINED!!

    Ok, that’s that for this week. I’ll have more for you next week. More of what? I don’t know. Will it be interesting? Probably not. But there will be more …

    Posted in Copyright, Gaming, High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K), News Roundup, Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (11 May 2008)

    The Pianist – I have no luck with this movie – Part 3

    Thursday, May 8th, 2008

    Welcome to hopefully the last post ever about this movie. I have finally received my replacement disc. The turnaround time was a bit long, basically a month and a bit, but most of the waiting had to do with the inefficient US and Australian postal systems, rather than any delays on DVD Pacific’s part.

    The replacement disc arrived in a padded envelope, and the discs was placed in a slim DVD-video case to further protect it.

    The disc I received was in perfect condition as expected and a quick play on the good old Toshiba XE1 worked flawlessly (excellent picture quality, BTW).

    So that’s that then. Hopefully when I do have the time to watch the entire movie, there won’t be any more problems.

    Posted in High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K) | Comments Off on The Pianist – I have no luck with this movie – Part 3

    Weekly News Roundup (4 May 2008)

    Sunday, May 4th, 2008

    Finally got my copy of Grand Theft Auto IV from gamehubs.com (quick delivery, at a great price … good customer service too, well recommended). It is certainly very impressive, but since this is the first GTA game I’ve not played on a PC, I’m still getting used to the controls and playing it on a big screen TV (which to be honest, is making me quite nauseous). The city feels much more real and alive compared to previous GTA games, although I’m a bit tired of being thrown through the windshield all the time while driving (don’t they have seat belts in Liberty City?). Anyway, a lot more play time is needed before I can truly say that it is my favourite game of all time. As expected, news this week has been dominated by GTA IV.

    CopyrightIn copyright news, and while on the subject of GTA IV, pirated Xbox 360 copies of the game are already available on several torrent sites. I understand that some people only downloaded those so they can play prior to the release date, but it’s a shame that people are not paying for a game which has reportedly cost over 100 million dollars to make and received great reviews. If you like the game, buy it!

    RIAAOn the other end of the scale, there’s the RIAA claiming that making music files available in “shared folders” constitutes piracy. Fortunately, a judge has ruled that this act alone does not mean piracy, and many other steps afterwards (such as other people actually downloading the shared music files) must happen before piracy can be declared. There was another ruling which said that the burden of proof must be on the RIAA’s side (you mean innocent until *proven* guilty? What a novel concept!), and that third party anti-piracy agents must first download the pirated file from the defendant’s hard-drive before they can accuse anyone of piracy. Some common sense at last!

    Now that RIAA’s “everyone should use DRM” crusade is at an end (with DRM being defeated quite comprehensively), only now are some of the bad side effects of DRM are beginning to show. The MSN music store, which made way for the Zune Marketplace, sold many DRM’d files and with the closing of the store and the DRM validation servers, these files no longer play because it cannot connect to the store to authenticate the license. That’s the trouble with DRM, especially those that from time to time require online validation … the content owners at any time could decide not to give you rights to play the file, or even make you pay for them again if you want to “re-activate” your license. Thank goodness that DRM is dead, for music files at least.

    High DefinitionIn HD news, Paramount, the last studio not to announce their Blu-ray plans, has finally done so with big titles such as Bee Movie and Cloverfield, as well as the Oscar nominated There Will Be Blood, all making their ways onto Blu-ray by the end of May. Universal has also announced that they will use the lossless DTS-HD MA format for their releases (Paramount wants to use Dolby TrueHD, also lossless). This should help Blu-ray, although reports suggest that the only company it will really help, more than any other at least, is Sony. The in-fighting amongst the other Blu-ray backers could actually hurt the format, since the BDA is far from a united front and consists of companies that have conflicting interests (as opposed to the HD DVD people, which really didn’t have that many supporters and only one major one in each field). Another problem identified is that Blu-ray is too dependent on the PS3, and not all PS3 users are movie fans that are willing to buy lots of Blu-ray movies, even though Blu-ray usage on the PS3 has increased. And the expected surge after HD DVD’s demise has not happened, and sales even dropped 40% from January to February. Of course, seasonal variations means that February (and March) are always slow months, but the victory certainly hasn’t been a catalyst for mass acceptance of Blu-ray … that will take another year or two at least. Cloverfield on Blu-ray (fake cover)And to further prove this, the latest Nielsen VideoScan data (which is now updated weekly on our forum) shows that with only 6% of the market compared to DVDs for top 20 titles by volume on both formats, Blu-ray still has a long way to go. In fact, the 6% is actually generous, because a large percentage of DVD sales occur outside the top 20 titles, whereas Blu-ray sales are much more concentrated in the top 20 – I don’t have exact figures, but Blu-ray probably only accounts for 2 to 3% of all sales at best).

    And just before moving onto gaming, the rumour that never seems to die resurfaced again, with an OEM partner of Microsoft claiming that a Blu-ray enabled Xbox 360 is on the way. I’m fairly certain we will see a new Xbox 360 model by the end of the year, with new GPU and possibly CPU parts to aid cooling and noise reduction. Will this model, codenamed Jasper I think, include Blu-ray playback? I’m 100% certain there won’t be Blu-ray games on the 360, so is including the drive and thus increasing the cost a sensible thing to do for Microsoft? Time will tell …

    GamingIn gaming news, or more precisely, GTA IV news, the first set of sales figures from the UK have been released, and the Xbox 360 version is holding the lead. Somewhat surprising because, while the 360 has sold more overall, it is the PS3 has been selling more than the 360 for month to month figures for quite a while now. Microsoft themselves have announced that, for US sales, GTA IV on the 360 is outselling the PS3 version by 2-to-1, no doubt helped by stores like Amazon offering GTA IV/360  bundle deals of their own in absence of an official one from Microsoft. Sony countered by saying that GTA IV has helped to sell loads of PS3s, as expected. Neither of these statements conflict with each other of course, and so with Sony not arguing against Microsoft’s claims, then 2-to-1 is not bad for a series that has been synonymous with the success of the PlayStation brand. GTA IV PS3 BundleSales of the PS3 version has not been helped with reports of freezing problems (and while the 360 versions has had a few freezing reports, it is not as bad as on certain older models of the PS3). It was also revealed that the PS3 version is only 630p, while the Xbox 360 versions runs at a higher resolution. Some of the shadow effects are extremely harsh on the higher resolution 360 version, which probably explains why the slightly more blurrier PS3 version looks better according to most reviews. If you want to see a video comparison of the two versions for yourself, then Gametrailers.com has the HD version up.

    Meanwhile, Mario Kart is probably selling loads on the Wii, but nobody cares (well I do, since I might buy a copy).

    That’s all folks for this week. I think shall spend the next week in between doing some work and a lot of time spent playing researching GTA IV.

    Posted in Copyright, Electronics, Gaming, High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K), News Roundup, Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (4 May 2008)

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