DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

May 2008’s NPD figures are out. While not entirely surprising, but it is still somewhat of a shock that GTA IV had absolutely no effect on console sales, and April wasn’t just a statistical anomaly. The Wii is on a wiinner and it’s outselling both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 left and right. The PS3, at least, can claim to have beaten the 360, but as you will read on, the signs are not all that great for both of these console heavy hitters, not when the featherweight is running away with it like that. My prediction from last month was not correct at all, as there wasn’t a bump in hardware sales due to GTA IV. The while I was right in that the 360’s lead would narrow, it has narrowed so much that it’s now a negative. But I least I got the bit about GTA IV selling well and the 360 version selling better right, although any idiot with a keyboard could have come up with that. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in May are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

As mentioned above, GTA IV had almost no effect on console sales. This is a bit odd, but if you think about it, perhaps makes sense. GTA IV is the game that everybody knew was coming, and it is very likely the people who wanted the game will have purchased consoles ahead of time. If GTA IV had been the first good game on either consoles, then perhaps this would lead to bigger hardware sales as people who waited now finally have a reason to go for it. But that’s not the case, since both the 360 and to a lesser degree, the PS3, already have a pretty good range of games to attract even sandbox style game fans like myself (Crackdown, Saints Row are two examples for the 360).

Sony will be the happier of the two companies. The PS3 outselling the 360 might be a fixture for the future, but I can’t help but feel that, at least when compared to the Wii, both consoles are plateauing or decline, with the 360 declining a bit faster than the PS3. The PS3 is also more than just a games console, it is (in my opinion anyway) the best Blu-ray player on the market for now, so even if it isn’t selling as a games console, it will sell as a Blu-ray player. I have a PS3 and I don’t play games on it, but it is probably the most used piece of equipment in my home theatre at the moment.

Both consoles will have to do several things before it can fully take on the Wii. Microsoft may look towards having a Wii style controller, which when added to its very good Xbox Live Arcade system, might mean cheap Wii style games in HD – quite attractive for those that like the Wii’s control system, but not the (sub) SD graphics. Making the “box” more attractive, at least more reliable and less noisy, should also be on the list of “todos” at Microsoft HQ. The PS3 will simply have to drop in price to make it competitive, plus time will give it a better games lineup as compared to the 360. So it’s not over for either consoles, but their current way of thinking does seem a bit outdated compared to what’s happening around them.

I won’t say too much about Nintendo and the Wii , except to say that they’ve been extremely clever in marketing games to non gamers. What was once considered a suicide mission by many in the industry now look like a stroke of genius (as often the case). Even the DS is marketed differently than say the PSP, which is still aimed at the traditional male demographic. When girls barely in primary school are playing DS, you know you’re onto something.

Let’s have a look at the software figures now. Again it highlights the problem for both Microsoft and Sony. While both had a top 10 title, with Microsoft occupying the top position, it is still a disappointing month for both console giants as Nintendo almost dominated every other position. The only good news for Microsoft this month was that GTA IV on the 360 outsold the PS3 again, this time by an even bigger margin to take it into an almost exactly 2:1 lead (66.3% versus 33.7%). The PS3 only had one game in the top 10 at 4th, which was GTA IV.

1. Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360, Rockstar) – 871,000
2. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 784,700
3. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 687,700 
4. Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3, Rockstar) – 442,900
5. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 294,600
6. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii, Nintendo) – 171,100
7. Iron Man (PS2, Sega) – 130,600
8. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii, Activision) – 116,800
9. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:  Explorers of Darkness (DS, Nintendo) – 107,000
10. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:  Explorers of Time (DS, Nintendo) – 102,000

So while Nintendo has dominated hardware sales for a long time now, that hardware dominance is finally translating into software sales. The Wii, out of the top 10 titles, held 55.4% of the market, with the Xbox 360 down to 23.5% and the PS3 at 12%. The only slight problem for Nintendo, and I mentioned it last month too, is that all of it’s top games are first party games, games that are made by Nintendo. It seems other software publishers either don’t want to, or don’t know how to yet make good games for the console, which is a tricky proposition compared to your standard video game (and standard control system). But as long as Nintendo can come out with innovations such as Wii Fit every year or so, the Wii looks set to dominate for a long time.

So onto June next. I don’t think I will make a prediction, but things will probably look similar to this month. Maybe the 360/PS3 positions will be reversed, or the lead narrowed/deepened depending on what games are coming out, but it won’t really make much of a difference to the Wii’s lead anyway. And with GTA IV sales dropping back, total software sales will be down, and it will be interesting to see if Mario Kart and/or Wii Fit can even claim top spot for next month. Until then, have a good one!