Archive for December, 2008

Weekly News Roundup (28 December 2008)

Sunday, December 28th, 2008

Welcome to the last ever Weekly News Roundup.

For 2008, that is. And predictably, there was hardly any news this week. There was the story of the RIAA changing tactics in their fight against piracy. The Pirate Party in Sweden is gaining support, now surpassing the Green Party in membership. And that’s pretty much it for copyright news.

Hardly any Blu-ray news either, as people are still recovering from TDK fever. The only thing slightly related was the cost of making PS3s dropping, but still higher than the retail price. Sony are still losing money on each PS3 sold, so no wonder they’re not offering any price cuts. And video streaming is coming to the Wii, which means all current generation consoles now have video streaming capabilities, which suggest online based video delivery is here to stay.

And that was the week in news, oh well. So instead of looking at the week’s news, I thought it would be appropriate to do a quick yearly roundup. A proper annual review would takes 20 pages, so I’ll just quickly do the news items that I can still remember, which is not much.

Copyright2008 was a year in which lawsuits were filled left and right, by the RIAA, MPAA and their legion of evildoers across the globe. TorrentSpy was shut down, many others followed, but piracy rates still increased. 

Consumers finally said no to DRM in 2008

Consumers finally said no to DRM in 2008

2008 is also the year that DRM died. Unfortunately, it was limited to the music arena, but it’s still a good sign for the future. DRM still reigns supreme in video and gaming, but on the PC gaming front, the voices of discontent are now being heard, all thanks to EA’s mangling of Spore’s DRM. No PC game gets released these days without a debate on DRM, and I think that’s a healthy development and hopefully, 2009 will be the year DRM died in gaming as well.

At the end, the RIAA decided to change tactics and go after ISPs. It happened in Australia as well, with AFACT suing ISP giant iiNet. iiNet has promised to fight the charges, and we might see what happens in 2009. 

In politics, the George W. Bush White House, firmly on the side of the RIAA/MPAA, established a new Copyright Czar position which will make the government do the dirty work of the copyright industry. Barack Obama was elected President, and he promises a different approach to fighting piracy, but we will have to wait and see if he delivers on the promise. 

High DefinitionIn High Definition, a lot happened in 2008. The year started with a bang, with Warner Bros. ditching HD DVD and going Blu-ray exclusive. Wal-Mart followed, and a string of other companies too, and in February, Toshiba folded and abandoned HD DVD.

RIP, HD DVD

RIP, HD DVD

What followed was a series of fire sales, some of which are still going on, in which yours truly increased his high definition movie collection 15 fold for less money than a Blu-ray player (current pricing). Blu-ray was expected to completely overwhelmed the market, but nothing materialised, at least not what studios were expecting. Blu-ray’s 6% share in March (when HD DVDs were still being released) did not grow at all for the next 6 months. Then came Iron Man, and price cuts to hardware, and Blu-ray was gaining momentum again. The Dark Knight made sure 2008 was a good, but not brilliant, year for Blu-ray, with market share closer to 10%.

Blu-ray standalone prices tumbled towards the end of the year, coming close to HD DVD levels just before it folded, with some deals making them even cheaper than HD DVD players after HD DVD folded. The “players are too expensive” excuse can’t really be used anymore, but people are still not buying players in droves, and with slower PS3 sales, there’s still not nearly enough players in people’s homes. 2009 will be the year of Blu-ray, as the execs now say – we’ll have to wait and see.  

But time may be running out because online video distribution made huge strides in 2008. All three current generation consoles, the Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3, now support some form of online video rental/streaming. There are more than 33 million of these consoles in the US alone.  Netflix, Blockbusters, Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, Apple, Amazon … are all now doing online video streaming, most of them with their own hardware players as well. If you ask anyone in the industry, they’ll tell you that online video is the next big thing in home video, but until bandwidth increases and its prices drop, we might still have a while to wait before HD video streaming becomes a reality. H.264 has firmly established itself as the video format of choice, and with the H.264 based DivX 7 coming next month, H.264 is truly becoming a mainstream video format and HD streaming using the highly efficient H.264 codec will make bandwidth requirements slightly less demanding. 

GamingAnd finally in gaming, 2008 was a great year for the gaming industry. There were so many hit titles, and my NPD yearly roundup to be published next month will have more details. GTA IV, Gears of War 2, Madden NFL 09, Super Smash Bros. Brawl – all titles that sold more than 1 million copies in the first month of release. The good news for Microsoft was that 3 of these 4 titles were Xbox 360 ones (the other one being for the Wii). The expected PS3 hits like LittleBigPlanet and MGS4 did not really do much for the console, while any old game on the Xbox 360 sold better. The Wii’s usual suspects, Wii Play, Mario Kart, and Wii Fit all helping it to stay number 2 in software sales. 

PS3: Losing momentum, losing sales, but not losing the high price tag

PS3: Losing momentum, losing sales, but not losing the high price tag

On the hardware front, the PS3 started with a bang, outselling the Xbox 360 for the first, and second, times in the first 3 month. Then a couple of months where both consoles were neck and neck, the Xbox 360 came back with a vengeance thanks to some smart price cuts and some hit game releases. But it was all a fight for (a distant) second place as far as Nintendo were concerned, as the Wii took top spot for 12 out of 12 months (we’re still awaiting December figures, but one can assume the Wii won by miles again). More than 2 million Wiis were sold in November alone.

The PS3 ended the year on a sour note (although the December figures might be better), with November of 2008 being a worth month than November of 2007, in terms of raw sales, which is not good news at all for a console that’s not supposed to have peaked yet. The lack of any price cuts, and with only a more expensive model being released for the holiday period, was what caused this. The high cost of making a PS3 is still hurting sales, but with the PS3 costs dropping, 2009 might be the year that the PS3 finally gets some prices cuts. And the good news is that the Xbox 360 can’t make any further drops, so it’s all set for PS3 making 2009 their year. 

So that was the year that was. If you listen to the marketing people, 2009 will be the year of Blu-ray, PS3, online video, H.264, and everything else in between. Nobody really knows what will happen, and I would dare make any predictions, but let’s just hope 2009 is a great year. Have a happy and safe holiday period, a Happy New Year and see you in 2009.

Weekly News Roundup (21 December 2008)

Sunday, December 21st, 2008

Only one more WNR before Christmas folks, and two more before its 2009. Can you really believe that? That somehow time is linear and that the years go up, rather than down, is really just amazing to me. You know what’s also amazing? Coleslaw. 

CopyrightIn Copyright news, the MPAA has linked an increase in piracy with the current economic climate. For once, I actually agree with them. Piracy has always been linked to what people are willing and able to spend, and with Hollywood consistently making increasing profits, the MPAA need to take a look at that and realise why the piracy rate is so high.

The MPAA continues their fight against movie websites, suing three more this week bringing the total to 13. But illegal downloads continue, which again links to the point above. Make it affordable, or people will look elsewhere.

The lawsuit against Australian ISP iiNet continues, and iiNet are ready for a legal fight which could start in February. As part of the preparation for the lawsuit, AFACT (the Australian MPAA) spied on iiNet’s users who used BitTorrent, and even planted a ‘copyright infringing’ user into the mix to prove their point. Does that leave a bad taste in your mouth? It does mine, and I’m not even an iiNet customer. Why should corporations or organisations representing corporations be allowed to spy on us? In this case, the information was used to sue another company, but what if they used this information to sue individuals? Oh wait, they’ve done this before. Ethical, moral and legal considerations seems to be second concern to these people, not if it gets in the way of protecting their profits. 

SecuROM - the culprit behind all this DRM nonsense

SecuROM - the culprit behind all this DRM nonsense

Software publisher Ubisoft is dropping DRM for the new Prince of Persia game. But don’t get too happy yet, because “It’s a Trap!”. They are doing it to prove that having no DRM still means a high piracy rate, which might get people to go and buy it prove a point, which is a scenario that they’re happy with too. It’s a win win for them really. Ideally, we as users should buy the game if we like it, and not buy it or download it if we don’t. A low piracy rate + a low purchase rate should send the right message if the game turns out to be crap (early reviews say the game is pretty good, but not an instant classic or anything). I don’t think DRM actually increases piracy, I just don’t think it stops it. And since it doesn’t work, it only annoys legitimate users, which is kind of counterproductive. Back to the game that started all this negative publicity for PC gaming DRM, Spore now has reduced its own DRM. And all it took was a massive public protest and out-lash. And don’t forget the baddies behind all this is SecuROM, and guess who publishes it? That’s right, Sony. The fact that half of SecuROM’s wikipedia page is filled by the “controversies” section says something, doesn’t it?

High DefinitionOnto Blu-ray news now, and it’s been a great week for Blu-ray. Well, actually it was last week, but the sales figures have only come out for “TDK Week”, and they are spectacular. More than $60 million is sales for the week is amazing for Blu-ray, considering the year’s previous big release, Iron Man, did less than $30m. But while this is great news for Blu-ray, it was also good news for DVD, because the DVD version sold tons as well. And the DVD version did better against Blu-ray for TDK compared to Iron Man as well, at least on dollar volume. The Batman has saved Christmas.

HD DVD Combo Discs could make a comeback, but this time in Blu

HD DVD Combo Discs could make a comeback, but this time in Blu

The first day figures for TDK had the Blu-ray version selling at 30% compared to the DVD version in the US, Canada and Britain. Worldwide numbers from a week later had the Blu-ray market share drop to about 13%, which is still an impressive set of figures (this number would have been closer to 3% this time last year). Still, I think something is missing from Blu-ray, as the migration from DVD to Blu-ray hasn’t really materialized for the average consumer. What might help is Blu-ray combo discs. Remember HD DVD combos? Remember HD DVD? Anyway, combos were HD DVD discs that had HD DVD content on one side, and DVD content (playable in any DVD player) on the other. Some discs even had both formats on the same side, although the HD DVD side was limited to a single layer (15 GB). Well, it might be coming to Blu-ray as well, and I think this will be a good idea for Blu-ray, despite the BDA ridiculing the HD DVD people for doing it. If HD DVD had decided to tough it out and were determined to use everything in their arsenal, then they could have made every DVD release a HD DVD combo, instantly taking the HD DVD to DVD sales ratio to 1:1. Blu-ray can now do this as well, if they’re desperate enough (will lose a lot of money in the process though).

GamingAnd finally in gaming, there’s a free Xbox Live Arcade game available at the moment.  I’ve downloaded it, and you don’t need a Gold account either. The way that Xbox Live has been integrated with the Internet is now quite impressive. I was actually able to log into my Xbox Live account on my PC, and schedule the download of this free game to my Xbox 360 all without turning the console on. Plus, my Fallout 3 achievements from my PC version of the game now shows up in my Xbox 360 gamer profile, and vice versa. PC gaming is on the decline, but it’s still huge for certain types of games, and if Microsoft can pressure publishers to include “Games For Windows” in all PC games (thus making sure that an Xbox 360 version will exist with the same set of achievements), then that will be a big boost for the Xbox 360 as well. 

NPD November 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD November 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

Overall, there’s a lot of good news for the Xbox 360 at the moment. The Wii is doing amazing things in sales, but as you’ll read about in my November NPD sales figure analysis, the PS3 is struggling. Sales are down compared to last year for all three of Sony’s console platforms, which isn’t too surprising given the current climate, but it’s made worse by the fact that every other console increased in sales: Wii, Xbox 360, DS, some by significant numbers (Wii – sales up 108%!). Some analysts are blaming this on poor HDTV sales. This kind of make sense, except the Xbox 360 is also a HDTV requiring console, so why has it not dropped in sales? I think the PS3 is supposed to drive HDTV sales, not the other way around, to be honest. But the easy solution is to drop prices, but Sony won’t do it claiming the PS3 is still the best value console around. That’s true, but value is relative. It’s as if a car manufacturer includes all extras as standard, except the price has been raised by a couple of thousand. Yes, it’s good value if you need all the extras, but what if you don’t want a sunroof? Then the car is just plain expensive, despite it being worth the price. This is basically the effect of the PS3 also being a Blu-ray player. In another year, Sony could have afforded to take a loss and drop prices, but not in a year where their predicted profits could drop by a massive 72%.

That’s it for yet another week. There’s no holiday break for DVDGuy, so I’ll be back same time next week with another news roundup. Even if there isn’t any news to write, in which case I’ll ramble on about something. So same as usual then.

Game Consoles – November 2008 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, December 15th, 2008

The November 2008 NPD figures are in, and this has been a bumper month for game console sales, breaking some records in the process. The overall picture is pretty predictable though, but still, some of the numbers are simply amazing, especially given how soft the retail sector is supposed to be right now. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in November are below, ranked in order of number of sales (November 2007 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Wii: 2,040,000 (Total: 15.4 million; November 2007: 981,000 – up 108%)  
  • DS: 1,560,000 (Total: 25 million; November 2007: 1,530,000 – up 2%)  
  • Xbox 360: 836,000 (Total: 12.4 million; November 2007: 770,000 – up 9%)
  • PSP: 421,000 (Total: 13.4 million; November 2007: 567,000 – down 25%)
  • PS3: 378,000 (Total: 6.1 million; November 2007: 466,000 – down 19%)
  • PS2: 206,000 (Total: 43.2 million; November 2007: 496,000 – down 58%)
  • NPD November 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD November 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of November 2008)

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of November 2008)

    My prediction last month was:

    No big surprises next month, I don’t think, so I won’t even bother making a prediction. Same as before. Which I guess is a prediction of sorts.

    There weren’t any big surprises in the order of most popular consoles, compared to October, but were a few big surprises. Some very good, some just good and some that’s quite bad.

    Let’s start with the very good, and just look at those Nintendo numbers. Wow! I’ve included November 2007’s sales figures as well for comparison reasons, and Wii sales grew a massive 108%! That’s right, it doubled in sales and then some. The DS did less well, but still maintained last year’s amazing numbers. That makes the Wii the most wanted device of the holiday period three times in a row now. To compare how amazing selling more than 2 million Wiis is, less than 4 million Blu-ray players were sold in the entire 2008 period! So the Wii sold more in one month than Blu-ray in six, even though Blu-ray players are now dropping to prices below that of the Wii.

    Then we have the less excellent, but still good surprise and that’s the Xbox 360 managing to outsell the same period from last year by 9%. That may not sounds as good as 108% (!), but the Xbox 360 started the year very badly and it looked like this was going to be the year that the PS3 spanked the 360, but then with a few strategic price cuts, the NXE, some hit games (see below), it fought back extremely well. The Xbox 360 is quickly establishing itself as the current-gen console of choice for “serious” gamers (and by serious, I mean those that have probably more than one console at have, have owned a previous-gen console, and those that actually care about the fact that the Wii is not HD). Well maybe not the console of choice, that’s a bit early to tell, but at the very least, it’s in with a shout, which is more than what you can say for the original Xbox. Microsoft will be pleased, no doubt, because they know they’re not really competing with the Wii – they’re competing with Sony’s PS3.

    And of course, there’s always a chance of a bit of bad news. Unfortunately, all 3 pieces of it came Sony’s way this month. Compared to the same time 2007, all 3 of Sony’s gaming devices dropped in sales. And they weren’t just superficial drops, but significant ones – 19 (PS3), 25 (PSP) and a massive 58% of the PS2. The Sony “eco-system”, to borrow the term from Microsoft, isn’t look too healthy. Of course, this is just a month, and we’re comparing current-gen consoles to a previous gen one (PS2), as well as two other “premium” (read: expensive) alternatives to other similar devices, and you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that expensive stuff sells less as well than cheap stuff in harsh economic times. What is worrying is that, for the PS3 at least, it wasn’t even able to maintain last year’s sales figures, despite prices dropping, value increasing, and Blu-ray now selling 4 times as many as last year. That’s negative growth, a recession, if you will. And to let your main rival, the 360, sell twice as many console as you do in the crucial holiday sales period, that’s just not good enough. Especially if it’s because you decided to release an even more expensive SKU (the 160GB) when people want value, not features. PlayStation Home, a beta just released a few days ago (why still beta? It’s been in the works for years!), will help, but then again LittleBigPlanet was supposed to help as well, and it didn’t, falling completely off the sales charts this month (see below).

    I don’t want to keep going on about it, especially when everyone else is doing so as well, but having a Blu-ray drive in the PS3 seems like a mistake, at least from the console war point of view. It has helped Blu-ray win the format war, but the other Blu-ray manufacturers are now not happy about the PS3 being the Blu-ray player of choice, and Sony may have to keep the PS3 prices high to placate them. And do games really need Blu-ray? Probably not this generation, especially if you look at all the hit games that have managed to say under 8 GB. I still think a Blu-ray drive would have made more sense in the PS4, and perhaps the PS3 could have had different SKUs that had built in Blu-ray drives for movie playback (only), while the mainstream version is cheap and uses good old DVDs. This would still help Blu-ray in the HD format war, but no hinder the PS3 in the console war. Sony’s hope is that the PS3 will remain competitive and become the PS4 due to software updates and other innovations, which I guess is not all that unrealistic and perhaps their big plan all along. We’ll have to wait and see if this works, because Microsoft can come out with a Xbox 720 or whatever, with Blu-ray playback and the “sexiness” of the PS3 probably for cheaper, and then Sony is back to square one.

    Now let’s look at the software sales charts, and the very good surprise here is for Microsoft. The number one and number two titles all belonged to the Xbox 360, selling a combined of nearly 3 million copies, that’s more than 1.2 million more than GTA IV, this year’s best selling game. That’s especially good for Microsoft because one of these titles, Call of Duty: World at War, is actually a multi-platform release, meaning they are winning in an area that counts for game developers when they decide how much effort each multi-platform release will get. To compare in more detail, the PS3’s best selling game this month was also CoD: WaW, but it was outsold by the Xbox 360 version by a 2.3:1 margin.  That’s even more amazing when you consider that for hardware numbers, the Xbox 360 only outnumbers the PS3 by 2:1 – so this shows that Xbox 360 gamers buy more games than PS3 owners, and games is where the money is at. And CoD: WaW is actually more expensive on the Xbox 360, at least on Amazon. The number 1 title was of course Gears of War 2, a Microsoft exclusive, which is great news for Microsoft’s game developers as well. Sony’s response to Gears of War was Resistance, and the sequel to that hit game was also released this month, making it the other PS3 game in the top 10, but selling considerably worse than GoW2. Both are exclusives to the platforms, and one sold 4 times as many as the other with only twice as many consoles. And where’s LittleBigPlanet? In fact, even the other Xbox 360 exclusive, Left 4 Dead, outsold Resistance 2. Left 4 Dead is developed by gaming giant EA, but no PS3 version was produced. The Nintendo hits are still all there, with Wii Music creeping in at number 10. All they need is a Wii Sports 2 and they will lock up a huge share of the software charts for a long time to come. Overall, the Xbox 360 held 46.5% of the top 10, the Wii closely behind at 40% while the PS3 lags behind at 13.5%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

    1. Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 1,560,000
    2. Call of Duty: World at War (Xbox 360, Activision Blizzard) – 1,410,000
    3. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 796,000
    4. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 697,000   
    5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 637,000
    6. Call of Duty: World at War (PS3, Activision Blizzard) – 597,000
    7. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Wii, Activision Blizzard) – 475,000
    8. Left 4 Dead (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 231,000
    9. Resistance 2 (PS3, Sony) – 215,000
    10. Wii Music (Wii, Nintendo) – 202,000
    And that’s it for another month. Steady as she goes, is my prediction for next month. I can’t see PlayStation Home, a beta at that, helping to sell too many PS3s, and with no price drops in view, I can’t see the current situation change much. The next time you read this feature will be 2009, and I will try to have a 2008 summary up as part of this feature, or another blog post. It should be interesting to find out who had the most number 1 releases, who sold the most hardware and software, and all sorts of other stats. See you then, and have a happy and safe holiday period.

    Weekly News Roundup (14 December 2008)

    Sunday, December 14th, 2008

    A very very quiet week again. There really just wasn’t any “new” news to report, just the same old stuff from previous weeks being recycled. I guess some people have already gone on vacation, if not in body, than in spirit. Either that or I was too lazy to find any stories. I’ll have to do my best with what I did manage to find, so please bare with me. Or you can wear clothes while reading if you have to.

    CopyrightLet’s start with copyright news, there was a good rumour flying around that Apple will drop DRM on iTunes. And like any good rumour, nothing came of it. Now the word is that it will happen before the end of the year. Let’s hope it happens, because DRM is totally against Apple’s philosophies, at least the philosophies that they try to make us think they have, if that makes any sense.

    The RIAA, MPAA's less glamorous cousin, wants a piracy tax imposed on Net users

    The RIAA, MPAA's less glamorous cousin, wants a piracy tax imposed on Net users

    A piracy tax being imposed on ISPs is just one of those ideas that refuses to go away. Some countries already have piracy tax on blank media and such, and it’s yet another example of the industry’s “guilty until proven innocent” attitude towards people who actually pay their salaries: consumers. This is an industry that instead of looking at the piles of money they’re currently making, chooses to look at the theoretical piles of money that they are potentially missing out on due to piracy – money that by simple logic suggests would never actually materialize. The just outcome in all of this would be the industry losing existing customers and revenue due to the greed in pursuing imaginary profits, the ultimate bird in hand situation, and I think in small ways, it’s already happening. Greed should not be awarded.

    The MPAA is making a push on President-Elect Obama to get him to approve an ISP filtering system that filters out pirated content, and no doubt all sorts of legal content that the MPAA don’t like you looking at. Fortunately, President-Elect Obama is far too busy at the moment trying to distance himself from a bunch of people who have disgraced themselves due to their greed to associated with another bunch of people who have disgraced themselves due to their greed. Thanks goodness for small mercies. The whole idea of ISP filtering is just stupid, not to mention technically expensive, harmful to Internet speed and usage, not fool proof to say the least, violates the privacy of so many, and opens the door to something that’s very dangerous to the fundamentals of democracy. So to find the MPAA behind it all, it’s not a big surprise at all, is it?

    High DefinitionLet’s move onto happier grounds, well relatively anyway. In Blu-ray news, Black Friday was kind to Blu-ray accoring to reports.

    Despite the lousy effort Amazon pitched in (although they now have a massive 3 for 2 sale, which is the sort of massive sale they should have had on Black Friday/Cyber Monday, although we could have done without the price raising just prior to the sale and the luckluster titles … sort it out, Amazon!), Blu-ray sales were excellent during Black Friday, at least compared to last year anyway. Sales quadrupled, although it wasn’t very hard considering that at the same time last year, less than 40,000 players were sold. So 147,000 standalone players is a good start, but anyone want to guess how many DVD players or even Wiis were sold in the same period?  

    The Batman is turning the whole town Blu, thanks to strong sales

    The Batman is turning the whole town Blu, thanks to strong sales

    Luckily for Blu-ray, this holiday season just happens to be one where one of the biggest movies of the new century so far is being released. Early reports suggest that The Dark Knight sold over 600,000 copies on Blu-ray, after selling more than 3 million in the first day. To compare, this year’s previous best seller, Iron Man, “only” sold 260,000 on Blu-ray! A bit unlucky is the current economic situation though. 

    Now, I don’t agree for one second with those that say Blu-ray is doomed and that it will all fold sometime in the next year. Neither do I agree with those that say that Blu-ray is doing as well as expected. It is clearly not, and it has enemies everywhere in the form of other distribution technologies, and existing franchises that are rock solid in their adoption. So Blu-ray is very much a format that should have done better having had no equal competition, is still not doing too badly considering, but time is surely not on their side. Forget the 5 year strategy, and get a strong foothold now, before some more convenience Internet/purely digital based service comes in and steals their thunder. The people behind Blu-ray also has to make up their minds as to whether to market Blu-ray as an evolutionary replacement for DVD, or just a premium alternative.

    This little baby holds more data than a Blu-ray disc (single layer), and is more portable and rewritable

    This little baby holds more data than a Blu-ray disc (single layer), and is more portable and rewritable

    As for the other distribution methods, imagine a set top box that accepts Blu-ray discs, as well as high capacity flash drives and comes with a broadband connection and perhaps some HDD storage. Some Blu-ray players/recorders already have these features, by the way. Now imagine being able to go to stores and download Blu-ray quality movies from a kiosk to your 32 GB flash drive, take it home to your media server or your HDD equipped standalone, upload the movie to it, and add it to your digital library. You can achieve the same by ordering movies from online stores (through the player) and have the movie delivered on Blu-ray discs, also ready to be uploaded to your media storage device. And of course, you can download movies straight from the net, or stream them live as you watch and have thousands of movies accessible at the press of a few buttons. In this quite plausible scenario (in my opinion, anyway), Blu-ray is reduced to just one of many content transfer options, and with faster Internet and higher capacity flash drives, it really doesn’t have much of a future. 

    In the PC arena, ATI has followed Nvidia’s example and have opened up the possibility of using the powerful GPU as an extra CPU for certain tasks that the GPU excels at. One such activity already accelerated is of course Blu-ray playback and video decoding, but ATI Stream (or Nvidia’s CUDA) can now also do the reverse and allow for accelerated video encoding. It’s not a bad idea, but most of the major video software companies are still playing catch up. My early tests with ATI’s own video encoder app showed only minimal improvements. When they do add support, this will come in very handy for making home made Blu-ray movies as well as transcoding Blu-ray to another format. 

    GamingAnd finally onto gaming, what’s the most influential games ever in the history of gaming? Are they these ones? I think this is the sort of question that will have many answers, and most of them will be correct. I have to say that the Dune II/Command & Conquer has to be up there, but I would say that being a big fan of RTS. Wolfenstein 3D is another one. Street Fighter II/Mortal Kombat did amazing things for the video gaming/arcade industry. Super Mario Bros. on the NES and Super Mario World for the SNES. And Fallout 3 (not really though, but I had to get this one in).

    But onto the current generation. The PS3 is being handled much in the same way by the media as Blu-ray. It’s either doomed one minute, and then the saviour of this holiday season the next, but the truth is always somewhere in between.

    The 160 GB PS3: was bringing out an even more expensive PS3 SKU the right thing to do this holiday period?

    The 160 GB PS3: was bringing out an even more expensive PS3 SKU the right thing to do this holiday period?

    There is certainly a line of thought, and this is from PS3 fans as well, that Sony aren’t doing a very well job of promoting the PS3, almost to the point of sabotage. I think Sony are doing as much as they can, but they are limited by the high cost of the console (cheap when you consider what it can do, but too expensive for “just” a game console, which is what a lot of people simply want). Like Blu-ray, the PS3 also has enemies around it, like the fun Wii or the cheap Xbox 360, which can play almost any game the PS3 can at similar qualities at least until programmers can unlock more of the PS3’s supposed hidden powers. And bringing out an even more expensive version of the PS3 for this holiday period? Who care? Or more precisely, who can afford it? Fun or cheap. Or fun and cheap. Feature packed but expensive (even if it is worth the price) isn’t going to sell this holiday period, I’m afraid. And also like Blu-ray, time is running out as you cannot let the Xbox 360 continue to gain in sales, build up a formidable user base in the US at least, and not worry just a little bit. I saw the most recent episode of ER where a sick kid asked for a PS3 as a Christmas present, which is the sort of thing Sony likes, but look at most movies and TV shows, and the majority of them show people playing the Xbox 360, and this is the kind of thing that makes Microsoft execs happy as a happy person who knows their product placements are working well.

    Who says you can’t write 1500+ words based on only 6 news links? Not me. Hopefully, I won’t have to use my brain as much next week and other smarter people will make up some news stories that I can just copy and paste. See you then.

    ATI Stream GPU assisted video transcoding – meh?

    Friday, December 12th, 2008
    ATI Stream - does it live up to the hype?

    ATI Stream - does it live up to the hype?

    ATI has released new drivers that has unlocked what they call ATI Stream accelerated video encoding. Basically, if you have an ATI 46xx or 48xx series card, then the powerful stream processors onboard can now be used for tasks usually reserved for CPUs, such as video encoding. This is basically a late response to Nvidia’s CUDA, which does the same thing.

    Included as a separate downloads, the free ATI Avivo Video Converter supports this new type of acceleration, which is very useful because it is the only software that supports it at the moment.

    So I decided to test encoding performance in ATI Avivo Video Converter using version 8.11 (no accelerated encoding using ATI Stream) and 8.12 (supports ATI Stream), and to see whether there’s a difference.

    First up, not all the encoding profiles support ATI Stream. The iPod, PSP, DVD and DivX ones do (some of others may as well, but I didn’t test all of them), and so I decided to test DVD and DivX encoding (the other two types had similar results).

    A bit more details about the test setup:

    CPU: Intel E8500
    RAM: 4 GB DDR3
    GPU: ATI Radeon HD 4850 (512 MB)
    OS: Windows XP SP3

    The input file:

    Type: XviD (AVI)
    Length: 21 minutes
    Size: 175 MB 

    The output profiles used:

    DVD: Max bitrate (8 Mbps)
    DivX: Max bitrate (2.6 Mbps)

    First up is version 8.11, the one without ATI Stream support. Here are the results:

    DVD:
    Conversion Time: 2:08
    CPU Usage: 100%
    GPU Usage: 0%

    DivX:
    Conversion Time: 1:39
    CPU Usage: 100%
    GPU Usage: 0%

    Now for version 8.12 results, where ATI Stream support is now activated:

    DVD:
    Conversion Time: 2:03
    CPU Usage: 100%
    GPU Usage: 0 to 15-20%, intermittent 

    DivX:
    Conversion Time: 1:36
    CPU Usage: 100%
    GPU Usage: 0 to 15-20%, intermittent

    ATI Avivo Video Converter with ATI Stream support - uninspiring

    ATI Avivo Video Converter with ATI Stream support - uninspiring

    Pretty underwhelming, you have to say. Only a 3 to 4% increase in encoding performance, which is not surprising because the GPU was hardly used during the whole thing. Nvidia’s CUDA takes a different approach, using more GPU, but less CPU, even if the encoding takes a little longer (more on that later). As a first attempt, it’s not great, but at least it shows that ATI is moving in the same direction as Nvidia and future applications from Cyberlink or TMPG Inc (which already supports CUDA acceleration) might yield better results.

    As for the ATI Avivo Video Converter, the application is pretty easy to use, but unfortunately, the output quality as well as the profiles provided are fairly poor. And if that’s not bad enough, you are limited to only the selected profiles and with only bitrate as the only adjustable option (and even then, it’s limited to quite low values). The encoding speed, even without acceleration, is pretty quick as a result, about 12 minutes to encode a DVD compliant MPEG-2 file for your typical 120 minute movie. If you don’t care about quality, and want to at least get your GPU to do a little bit of the work, then this might be the tool for you.

    For everyone else, it’s best to wait until a proper encoder comes out with ATI Stream support to see how much of a speed improvement there is, especially if it can get 100% of the core working on it.