DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

This February is an important month for several reasons. Following the disappointing numbers for January, there was hope that the gaming industry would pick up again in February. February also marked the release of several new releases, including Bioshock 2 and the PS3 exclusive and critically acclaimed Heavy Rain. So will any of these games make the difference, will the industry start to have positive year to year growth, or are we still in a period of decline? Read on to find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in February 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (February 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 613,200 (Total: 40.5 million; February 2009: 588,000 – up 4%)
• Xbox 360: 422,000 (Total: 19.4 million; February 2009: 391,000 – up 8%)
• Wii: 397,900 (Total: 28 million; February 2009: 753,000 – down 47%)
• PS3: 360,100 (Total: 11.8 million; February 2009: 276,000 – up 30%)
• PSP: 133,400 (Total: 17.1 million; February 2009: 199,000 – down 33%)
• PS2: 101,900 (Total: 45.4 million; February 2009: 131,000 – down 22%)

NPD February 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of February 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

There are some big titles being released in February, several that will help the PS3 more than the Xbox 360, including the platform exclusive Heavy Rain, and while it’s no longer exclusive, Final Fantasy XIII should have a bigger following on the PlayStation platform than on the 360. As a result, I expect the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 at the very least and maybe make a run on the Wii. BioShock 2 should do well on the Xbox 360, but the usual Nintendo Wii titles should also be in the top 10.

I think the only thing I got right was that Bioshock 2 on the Xbox 360 did well, and relatively good sales for Heavy Rain. I didn’t even get the Final Fantasy release date right, so it’s best to just forget my prediction and move on (please?).

There was little chance that I would have gotten this month’s hardware sales order right. The Xbox 360 outselling both the Wii and the PS3 was totally unexpected, to be honest. Both Nintendo and Sony have blamed stock shortages for the problem, and a quick browse on most online stores at least confirm the PS3 250GB being sold out for quite a while now. I can sort of understand the Wii having trouble with stock, since it had a monster December, but January was relatively weak in sales and usually stock problems pop up then and gets fixed in February. For the PS3, sales have been much better than last year and I can see why Sony would not have planned for the sales increase with production increases. But still, if Microsoft can meet demand, despite selling more consoles than the PS3 in the last two months, then you have to say for Sony (and Nintendo) that it was an opportunity missed. I might also guess that Sony might be keeping supply short deliberately so that they have enough units to ship out in March, when Final Fantasy XIII is actually released (not February, as I had thought last month, for some reason).

Looking at the year on year figures, the DS, Xbox 360 and PS3 all recorded growth, while the rest fell. The Xbox 360 has consistently had year on year growth, albeit marginal, and that’s quite a feat and Microsoft has the luck of having key game releases spread out evenly to allow this to happen (for example, Modern Warfare 2 came just at the time when it look like the Xbox 360 was running out of steam when faced with superior competition in the form of the price reduced PS3 Slim). The PS3’s growth can be largely attributed to the Slim/price cut, and also the fact that it was doing horribly last year (and the year before). As I showed last month, while the year to year growth for the PS3 was a high 30%, comparing 2010 to 2008 only yielded a 28% sales increase (because February 2009 was actually worse than February 2008 for the PS3). That’s a 28% sales increase in two years, which is not that good at all, especially considering the fact that Xbox 360 sales grew by 66% in the same time period (and as I noted last month, there was a 45% growth for the Xbox 360 comparing January 2008 and 2010 figures, with the PS3 only recording a negligible 3%). The PS3 should be doing a lot better than it still is, but maybe we’ll see that for the rest of the year, as the PS3 has some really high profile exclusives (or semi-exclusives) lined up.

Looking at the red figures, the decline in year on year for the Wii is worrying, even with Nintendo’s assertion that stock shortages were the reason. The Wii has been consistently doing worse the a year before, and has done this for most of 2009, so while February was especially worse due to stock issues, it still would have been a red month for the Wii without the stock issues. Of course, what’s happening with the Wii is almost the opposite of the PS3, whereas the PS3 had a bad 2008/2009 and so it was easy for Sony to record growth, the Wii had a great 2008/first few months of 2009 and so it’s really hard for them to avoid year on year declines. Things should stabilise for the Wii around April, I feel. The PSP and PS2’s decline slowed a bit in February, particularly the PS2, but the PSP is irrelevant now compared to the DS.

Let’s move on to software. The biggest hit of the month, as expected, was Bioshock 2. The fact that the PS3 port didn’t even rank in the top 10 is a bit of a surprise, it was 12th and sold nearly 3 times fewer copies than the Xbox 360 version. The fact that the original Bioshock was a Xbox 360 exclusive may have something to do with it, and expect a similar, but not as extreme, scenario when the formerly PS3 exclusive Final Fantasy XIII is released in March. Another reason could be because buyers had to choose between Heavy Rain and Bioshock 2, and many chose the former instead. Modern Warfare 2 is still holding up in the sales charts, again showing how amazing it has done since release. Last month’s hit, Mass Effect 2, is still doing relatively well. Another surprise is the Wii hit, Just Dance, which somehow managed to increase in sales. It seems to be getting popular and popular! Another interesting situation with Dante’s Inferno, in which the PS3 version outsold the Xbox 360 version – again, expect the PS3 version of FFXIII to do the same next month (although the PS3 having an exclusive edition of the game might have helped). And lastly, we have the critically acclaimed PS3 exclusive Heavy Rain coming in at 10th. Not great, considering how Mass Effect 2 (another console exclusive) did last month (and this month) and how Uncharted 2 did on the same console, but both were sequels which are easier to sell. But as many have noted, Heavy Rain was released towards the end of February, and so it was at an disadvantage compared to most of the other titles. This isn’t the first time Sony has done this with a platform exclusive, by releasing it towards the end of the month as opposed to giving it a whole month to gather sales. I don’t know what is the reason behind this, but they didn’t do this with Uncharted and it managed a number one, but they did it with inFAMOUS and I firmly believe that it could have ranked higher had it been released just a bit earlier. They also did this with Killzone 2, again costing it a few places in the charts perhaps. But I doubt Sony cares too much about the monthly NPD rankings, so games gets released when they get released, I suppose. For Nintendo, New Super Mario Bros. continue to rank, as does Wii Sports Resort, but some of the other usual entries, like Wii Fit Plus or Mario Kart, have been pushed out of the top 10. Overall, the Xbox 360 had the most titles in the top 10, and had 42.6% of sales. The Wii was second with 3 titles and 34.8%, and the PS3 did relatively well with also 3 titles (the equal most ever?) and 22.6%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Bioshock 2 (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 562,900
2. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 555,600
3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 314,300
4. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 275,400
5. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 272,500
6. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 252,800
7. Mass Effect 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 246,500
8. Dante’s Inferno (PS3, EA) – 242,500
9. Dante’s Inferno (Xbox 360, EA) – 224,700
10. Heavy Rain (PS3, Sony) – 219,300

It’s time to make a prediction. I find it hard to make one for hardware sales because of the stock shortage issue, but if I had to go out on a limb, then I say the PS3 is second, behind the DS, and above the Wii and Xbox 360. I think the Xbox 360 will come fourth, with the Wii recovering a bit. The reason I say the PS3 is going to top the other home consoles is because of two things. One is called Final Fantasy XIII, the other is called God of War III. Having two huge releases in the same month should help hardware sales, but I wonder if it isn’t better to separate these two titles, which might get into each other’s way in terms of vying for gamers’ pocket money. But what do I know. In any case, there aren’t too many new releases for either the Xbox 360 or the Wii, so Sony could really clean up in March.

See you next month.