Archive for April, 2010

Weekly News Roundup (25 April 2010)

Sunday, April 25th, 2010

Early in the week, I posted the March 2010 NPD US video game sales analysis. March was a good month for Sony, despite the PS3 coming fourth again and being outsold by the Xbox 360, although it may be due to stock issues. It was game sales that gave the PS3 one of the best month since release, with the 4 titles in the top 10, including the number one, and 40% of the top 10 in terms of units sold. It was almost the perfect storm, with two of the PS3’s biggest exclusive (and formerly exclusive) franchises (God of War and Final Fantasy) seeing new releases in the same month.

Since I’m running a bit late today, let’s not waste any more time and get to the news roundup proper.

Copyright

Starting as usual with copyright news. We’ve already seen the recently passed UK anti online piracy bill being the inspiration behind several scams, but the real question is whether the new law will actually help to prevent piracy. The answer seems to be no, based on the French experienced, and also on figures that show the popularity of anonymous BitTorrent usage, which prevents the authorities from finding out what you’re downloading, increasing in recent month.

BitBlinder Logo

BitBlinder, a free tool, promises to block "Marketers, corporations, criminals, and governments" from monitoring your activities

And this is a paid service too, so people are actually spending money now on services which help to protect their privacy, and also their downloading habits, which means that’s less money people will be spending on legitimate purchases, although free services and tools that protect BitTorrent users from prying eyes are available too. And all of these services and tools will make monitoring and tracking illegal downloads much harder, if not impossible. And if the government does ban people from the Internet, these banned users will also be banned from being able to purchase things online, a side effect that the content holders that lobbied the government to introduce such a draconian measure probably didn’t input into their calculations. Remember that these are groups of very short sighted people, so who knows what other effect the sledgehammer three-strikes approach will have in terms of actually hurting legitimate sales.

But having the laws introduced will be seen as a huge victory for copyright holders, and they will continue their crusade to get other countries to adopt similar legislation. Next up on the agenda is UK’s neighbour, Ireland, where the music labels have just won an important court case against the country’s largest ISP, which should now open up the way for three-strikes to be introduced. Expect anonymous BitTorrent usage to go up in Ireland next, I suppose.

Assassin's Creed II SKiDROW Crack NFO

The NFO file from SKiDROW's Assassin's Creed II crack, detailing their work in defeating Ubisoft's DRM

From one set of short sighted people to another, Ubisoft’s “always on” DRM may have finally been cracked, at least for the game, Assassin’s Creed II. Cracking group SKiDROW has released a crack which they claim will make pirated copies of AC2 fully playable, after what they claimed was a “challenge”. Comments posted on torrent websites suggests that they really have done it. Ubisoft will point to the fact that the crack came out more than a month after the game was originally released, which is much longer than the typical 2 or 3 days wait for the crack (and sometimes not even that). But this being the first proper crack for this new DRM system, it was always going to take longer than usual, and perhaps this will make future cracks that much easier. So on one hand, Ubisoft has prevented people from playing the full game without buying, for the first month at least, and that may have helped to get them a few more sales. On the other hand, the crappy DRM may have driven off even more customers, to competing games, or even to piracy to protest the harsh treatment of legitimate customers. So only Ubisoft knows  if it has all been worth it or not.

Copyright on YouTube has been put in the spotlight again this week when the Downfall Hitler parodies started disappearing, due to copyright complaints. I think at this point everyone who has heard of YouTube has seen at least one Hitler Downfall parody. While it is true that these clips use copyrighted content, but the fair use protects parodies, since it is a fundamental aspect of free speech. And even if fair use didn’t exist, and it’s slowly becoming this way, is the copyright holder really being hurt by people posting these types of clips. I reckon a lot of people who have seen the clips have not watched the movie Downfall (which is highly recommended), and I suspect many have gone out to buy or rent the movie after seeing the parody clips. Surely, this is a good thing for the copyright holder, as many of them are spending millions trying to artificially produce and promote viral clips of their own, and none of them can beat Downfall Hitler in terms of popularity. Plus, they can actually make money off these user uploaded clips. YouTube’s stance on this is measured. They’re fighting their own copyright battles in court at the moment, and they’re the ones that made it possible for copyright holders to easily find and remove copyrighted clips through their Content ID system. But YouTube saw fit to post a blog post that tells people how to appeal against these types of removals. Once an appeal is lodged, the video is immediately back online, and if the copyright holder wants to get it removed permanently, then they’ll have to resort to the DMCA, which does protect parodies. But with the recent RedLetterMedia Star Wars review removal, and now Downfall Hitler, it seems copyright holders are abusing copyright law to help nobody, and in fact, may be causing damage to themselves.

Avatar may just be the biggest Blu-ray release ever, but many users are finding that their copy simply won’t play in their Blu-ray players. Apparently, this is due to a new version of the BD+ copy protection system, BD+ 5, being deployed. Some Blu-ray players will require a firmware update to fix the playback issue, but you would think that with such a big release, you wouldn’t risk putting such a new copy protection scheme in place. Or at the very least, make sure manufacturers have the firmware updates out *before* you release the new DRM scheme. But that would assume studios care about their customers, which they don’t.

High Definition

Because if studios cared about the customers, then they wouldn’t make releases like the recent Lord of the Rings Motion Picture Triolgy Blu-ray set. (We’ve moved onto HD news, btw).

Lord of the Ring Motion Picture Trilogy Blu-ray Amazon Ratings

Amazon ratings for the LOTR trilogy Blu-ray shows fan feeling cheated, but studios don't care

I was really interested in seeing how this rushed Blu-ray set of some of the biggest movies  ever would do at retail, and while LOTR was the most popular Blu-ray title in the week of release, it definitely didn’t do as well as they should have, even taking into account the fact that it’s more expensive than your regular single Blu-ray movie. It didn’t help that the studios thought wise to release one of the biggest releases of the format so far in a week that’s traditionally poor for sales, the post Easter week. And so it wasn’t a total surprise that the biggest movies to be released on Blu-ray so far (total box office wise, when adding it up for all 3 movies) actually produced a set of weekly results that are actually the lowest for Blu-ray sales for 2010 so far. Comparing to the same post Easter week from last year, the only notable new release back then was The Spirit (with current IMDb rating of 5.0 out of 10), and given a whole year worth of growth and the three of the biggest movies ever for the first time on Blu-ray, less than an $8m increase in weekly revenue was recorded, compared to a $14m increase in revenue in the week earlier. Of course, the post Easter effect was responsible for a large part of this, but you do have a feeling that if the first LOTR trilogy Blu-ray release was treated with a bit more respect, like a proper transfer for the first film, or creating some new extra features for the set, or at the very least, actually bothering to put the same old extra features on a Blu-ray disc instead of sticking the same discs from the DVD boxset in the set (and have the temerity to call the whole thing a “Blu-ray boxset”), and this is all on top of not releasing the Extended Edition, then maybe it would have sold more and fans wouldn’t feel cheated, which is director Peter Jackson’s take on this Blu-ray debacle, reflecting the fact that the director no longer controls these releases, only the studios.

But that’s not really the point. Warner will probably release a Extended Edition with hours of new extra features and with improved video quality, and they may even be kind enough to include the theatrical version in the same release using seamless branching, and all the fans will buy up this special, ultimate, collector’s, edition without hesitation. And that’s what they’ll rely on, and any money they can make off the current rush job will be a bonus. Of course, that bonus is perhaps looking a little less than they had hoped, which may mean they’ll have to milk it a bit longer, and that could mean further delays to the Extended Edition Blu-rays. And if you look at it that way, then you’ll have to give in to the studio and buy the current botched release, so that the EE can get here sooner. Maybe some billionaire can buy up a million copies of it, bury it in the desert next to that E.T. game, and then we can have the Extended Edition released on Blu-ray next week.

In totally unrelated news, Lucasfilms has hinted that the Blu-ray version of Star Wars will be coming sooner than you think, probably before the 3D versions hit the cinemas, and definitely before they milk fans for more money with the new updated, must-have 3D Blu-ray set of Star Wars. I just hope that they include the theatrical versions on the initial Blu-ray release, because my VHS copy of it is not looking too healthy at the moment (and I refused to buy the slightly updated DVD edition that had the theatrical versions as I had already paid for the original DVD box set).

Not much going on in gaming, other than the NPD analysis, so I’ll skip the section for this week. See you next week.

Game Consoles – March 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, April 19th, 2010

March is a huge month for gaming software, particularly for the PS3, with the release of the much anticipated God of War III, plus the first truly current-gen Final Fantasy game (always a big draw for the PS3, although this time, it’s no longer a platform exclusive). The PS3 has never dominated software sales, particularly the top 10, so March is an excellent opportunity for Sony to achieve this. The Xbox 360 was also the best selling home based console in February, but both Nintendo and Sony blamed stock shortages for the low hardware numbers, and it will be interesting to see if the Xbox 360 continues to hold top spot this month. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in March 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (March 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • DS: 700,800 (Total: 41.2 million; February 2009: 563,000 – up 24%)
  • Wii: 557,500 (Total: 28.6 million; February 2009: 601,000 – down 7%)
  • Xbox 360: 338,400 (Total: 19.7 million; February 2009: 331,000 – up 2%)
  • PS3: 313,900 (Total: 12.1 million; February 2009: 218,000 – up 44%)
  • PSP: 119,900 (Total: 17.2 million; February 2009: 168,000 – down 29%)
  • PS2: 118,300 (Total: 45.5 million; February 2009: 112,000 – up 6%)
NPD March 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD March 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

I find it hard to make one for hardware sales because of the stock shortage issue, but if I had to go out on a limb, then I say the PS3 is second, behind the DS, and above the Wii and Xbox 360. I think the Xbox 360 will come fourth, with the Wii recovering a bit. The reason I say the PS3 is going to top the other home consoles is because of two things. One is called Final Fantasy XIII, the other is called God of War III. Having two huge releases in the same month should help hardware sales, but I wonder if it isn’t better to separate these two titles, which might get into each other’s way in terms of vying for gamers’ pocket money. But what do I know. In any case, there aren’t too many new releases for either the Xbox 360 or the Wii, so Sony could really clean up in March.

So the PS3 didn’t come second, but the Wii did outsell the Xbox 360, and the two PS3 titles I mentioned did do rather well in the top 10 charts. Sony says the PS3 hardware numbers are still low due to stock shortage issues, which is a shame because they knew these two top titles were coming out and yet didn’t prepare enough hardware stock to meet demands. The Xbox 360 still managed to outsell the PS3, but it’s hard to know how much of it is due to stock shortages. And Sony did clean up in terms of software, if not in hardware.

The more cynical might say that the PS3 stock shortage will end as soon as it manages to beat the Xbox 360. But looking at the current Amazon charts, the previously sold out PS3 120GB is currently the top seller, so it might very well beat the Xbox 360, and maybe even the Wii. Certainly off the backs of two monster software releases, you’d expect the console to do well. March was a good month for Sony, more evident when we get to the software numbers, with even the PS2 recording a year-on-year sales growth. Unfortunately, PSP sales continues to slide.

For Nintendo, the Wii continues to sell poorly based on a year-on-year comparison, but there was only a 7% drop in sales, much better than the usual 40+%. The “less bad” results may also be indicative of a slight bump due to stock shortage issues being addressed. The DS continues to steamroller past all other consoles, and it had a huge title in the software charts as well, so the Nintendo eco-system is still doing well.

For Microsoft, the Xbox 360 recorded yet another monthly figure that was higher than a year ago, albeit a somewhat diminutive 2%. The console has a few exclusives to be released in the next few months, but nothing like the titles on the PS3, and so it could very well be just a matter of limping on until Project Natal is released just before the holidays. The rumour that Project Natal will be available as a bundle with the same price point as the current Elite console could very well make it a holiday time winner, especially when up against the comparatively expensive PlayStation Move (which in order to get the best experience,  requires a PS3 Eye, plus 2 Move controllers and the required nunchuck, now called the Navigation Controller). For now, if Microsoft can keep up with the year-on-year growth, then I think they will be relatively happy, even if relegated to being the least popular of the home consoles.

Moving on to software. Sony stole the show with 40% of the top 10 in terms of units sold, and having 4 titles in the top 10, both of which are records. If not for the Pokemon DS titles, the PS3 games would have dominated even more. The PS3 exclusive God of War III is finally selling like an exclusive, winning the month as the most popular title. Previous exclusives, even as recently as Heavy Rain in last month, did relatively poorly considering the number of consoles out there. Speaking of Heavy Rain, it disappeared from the top 10 altogether, which again suggests that had Sony released it earlier in February, as opposed to the very very end, then it might have had a chance to place much higher in the charts. The second big PS3 title was Final Fantasy XIII, which despite no longer being a platform exclusive, still managed to outsell the Xbox 360 version by almost two to one. With Final Fantasy being very much a PlayStation franchise, and with the PS3’s Blu-ray disc offering better quality pre-recorded visuals than the Xbox 360 version, it all goes on to explain why the Xbox 360 version didn’t sell better. The Xbox 360 did win one multi-platform war, in that Battlefield: Bad Company 2 on the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 version by almost two to one as well. There was room for one more PS3 exclusive, MLB 10:  The Show, which occupied the last spot. For the Wii, there were only two listings in the top 10, New Super Mario Bros. and Wii Fit making a return. Overall, the PS3 had 40.63% of the top 10, the Xbox 360 with 19.64% and the Wii in last place with 13.21%, the Pokemon DS titles claimed the rest.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. God of War III (PS3, Sony) – 1,100,000
  2. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo) – 1,020,000
  3. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3, Square Enix) – 828,200
  4. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 825,500
  5. Pokemon HeartGold (DS, Nintendo) – 761,200
  6. Final Fantasy XIII (Xbox 360, Square Enix) – 493,900
  7. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 457,400
  8. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PS3, EA) – 451,200
  9. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 224,700
  10. MLB 10: The Show (PS3, Sony) – 349,200

So prediction time. I think the PS3 will outsell the Wii, in April. This is based on the strong software numbers for March, plus the stock shortage issue being resolved finally which will give the PS3 a bump in sales. While there’s no new major PS3 exclusive in April, Super Street Fighter IV will be available, and based on the non Super version of the fighting game, the PS3 version should outsell the Xbox 360 version as well. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Conviction, which is a console only exclusive for the Xbox 360 (there’s also a PC version), should do well, and God of War III should still be charting. So another good month for the PS3, with better hardware numbers, but probably slightly lesser software domination, for April.

See you next month.

Weekly News Roundup (18 April 2010)

Sunday, April 18th, 2010

I managed to ramble my way through a mid-week blog post about the future of TV. The focus on fighting piracy has so far centered on stopping the flow of illegal content, and punishing those that download them. I argue that a better strategy is to provide new unique, innovative services that betters piracy in terms of providing convenience. It is true that people download pirated stuff because it’s free, but let’s admit it, they also do it because sometimes it’s just really convenient. And as I said in the future of TV blog post, if the legal outlets are not beating pirated content  on convenience (and quality), then that’s something that should be addressed. My next mad rambling will be about the future of movie viewing and collection, which came to me in a dream last night.

Copyright

There’s a few news stories to go through, so let’s get started with the copyright news. Let’s get the really really outrageous stuff out of the way first, and leave the normal level of outrageous stuff for later on.

The MPAA Is Watching You

The MPAA Is Watching You

The MPAA and RIAA has proposed several new anti-piracy measures, a wish list if you will, to the Office of Intellectual Property Enforcement. Had this list been released a couple of weeks earlier, then surely people would have guessed wrongly that this was some kind of April Fools joke, but the MPAA and RIAA are not joking around. ISP level monitoring of suspicious content, permanent blocking of websites that the MPAA/RIAA suspects may be engaging in piracy, and the “best” suggestion of all is the creation of a spyware tool that sits on users’ computers, actively scanning and deleting suspected pirated content. Note my use of “suspicious” and “suspect” – without a court of law ruling for or against, that’s what all of this is. But the copyright holders and groups like the MPAA and RIAA that represents them want allegations to become evidence, for mere suspicion to become guilt, and using the government and public resources to circumvent due process. Through money and fear based lobbying, the MPAA and RIAA can achieve its goals, and this is a real threat to everyone’s freedoms and to democracy itself. This is not an exaggeration. When they are proposing things like search and seizure of people’s laptops and MP3 players at airports due to the potential of finding pirated content on them, when they want to ban people and websites from the Internet and so cut off the most potent form of communication for their opponents, to control what people can do and can’t do in their own homes with their legally purchased items, to go as far as proposing a software that monitors people’s usage of their personal computers – these are not exaggerations. The fact that the public has been kept in the dark regarding the ACTA global anti-piracy treaty is further evidence of this threat. This nice rant by CNET blogger Molly Wood says as much, in a less mad rambolic way, in a new blog entry that’s a call to arms to stop the emerging copyright police state. “Copyright police state” describes exactly what the MPAA/RIAA is seeking to create, because it’s the only way they can ensure their future, their power, is guaranteed. Otherwise they may have to, you know, change and adapt, and that stuff is hard.

And when governments are clueless about the legislations they’re passing, then the dystopic future that we all fear becomes one step closer to reality. Case in point, the newly passed UK anti-piracy bill, passed politicians that actually think an IP address is an “Intellectual Property address”, has already been exploited by scam artists scaring people into paying “pre-trial settlements”. See, this is what happens when you pass laws that bypass due process, because without the legal checks and balances, anyone can exploit the system for their own gain, and citizens who have had their rights stripped away no longer feel able to defend themselves, and so fall prey to these sort of scams. The malware itself pretends that it is being sent on behalf of well known law firms which have been engaging in “pre-trial settlement” mailings. This isn’t the only malware out there right now pretending to be some kind of anti-piracy measure, and there’s news of one in Japan where it also asks for “pre-trial settlements”, and users face the embarrassment of having their browser history published if they do not pay up. And if they do pay up, their credit card details are stolen as a result. Well, what does that tell you about these requests for “pre-trial settlements” from legitimate organisations, in that people confuse them with genuine blackmail attempts. The good news is that yet another law firm has withdrawn from this kind of activity, due to a public backlash.

But the most frustrating thing about all of this is that it won’t stop piracy at all. There are already many techniques which exists that allows people to bypass the measures put in place so they can download pirated content to their heart’s content. And by pushing people towards these harder to monitor areas of the net, it will make piracy stronger and these short sighted measures will only end up hurting the copyright holders more in the long term.

High Definition

In HD news, PS3’s 3D Blu-ray support will not be coming until later the year. 3D will be coming to the PS3 in June, but only for 3D games. This would seem to be Sony’s way to give their and others 3D standalones a chance at retail, since I don’t think technical reasons  are what’s responsible for the delay in 3D Blu-ray support. So for early adopters, you’ll have to look elsewhere to get your 3D movie fix.

Blu-ray 3D Logo

Blu-ray 3D won't be coming to the PS3 until later in the year

Fox and Universal have made a deal with Netflix to provide more content for online streaming, but new releases will be delayed by 28 days. It’s the kind of deal Netflix and alternative distributors like Redbox have had to accept, as studios try to maximize their DVD and Blu-ray sales revenue by giving them an exclusive release window.

Speaking of alternative distributors, Seagate and Paramount are trying something new, by pre-loading movies on portable hard-drives that Seagate sells. These movies aren’t free though, they still need to be paid for and unlocked to be viewed, and as with any DRM, interoperability limitations mean these files won’t play on too many other devices. It’s an interesting idea, but the only effort that this method saves the consumer is the actual download process, which between all the DRM unlocking and the need to find a compatible player for the DRM’d file, isn’t a very inconvenient step in comparison.

The HTML5, H.264, browsers debacle continues to confuse, with Google now adding to the format confusion by making the VP8 video codec open source. Google recently absorbed On2, the company that makes the VP series of codecs. Google says that by making VP8 open source, this provides an alternative to browser makers that don’t want to pay for the proprietary H.264, but also don’t think the free Ogg Theora format is good enough in quality. If Google can convince the likes of Nvidia, ATI and Intel to provide GPU based hardware acceleration or decoding assist for VP8, then perhaps we do have a viable alternative, but it’s hard seeing anyone take on H.264, which has firmly established itself as the industry standard codec (H.264 is used by YouTube, Blu-ray, Apple, to name a few of the format’s supporters). The MPEG-LA needs to waive royalties for H.264 support for browsers, which I think is the quickest way to resolve this issue, as opposed to introducing and promoting yet another video format in VP8.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, last week I mentioned that Amazon UK refunded an user who complained the PS3 now no longer supporting the “Other OS” function, despite it being promoted as one of the features of the PS3 in Amazon’s sales description.

Sony has now officially confirmed they will not be subsidizing retailers that give out these kind of refunds, and so Amazon UK either has to continue to provide refunds out of their own pocket, or most likely, stop providing refunds. Class action lawsuit time?

And I know the March NPD figures are out, and I will post the analysis as soon as possible, probably tomorrow. The Xbox 360 lost the number one spot as expected, but still managed to beat the PS3. But Sony stole the show with a strong showing in software sales, also as expected.

That’s all for this week. Talk to you again  in 604800 seconds.

TV Networks for the 21st Century

Friday, April 16th, 2010

So why am I posting about TV networks? Well, it’s about piracy. Yes, the subject that this blog hardly ever touches upon.

All the talk is about movie and music piracy, but the real trend recently has been towards piracy of TV shows. In fact, there are several BitTorrent websites that specializes only in TV shows, and several release groups that do the same.

This is important because TV networks, which have relied on providing us free content in exchange for broadcasting advertising, is being serious hurt by TV show piracy. And while all the spotlight is on the print media and how its doomed, the traditional TV networks are under threat as well, with declining ad revenues and viewership.

The way things used to work, at least from an outsider’s perspective, was that TV shows were produced and sold to TV networks around the world. Some networks would have exclusivity, which means other networks will have to wait before being able to broadcast the same episode. Then the TV networks would decide the broadcast schedule, and then sprinkle in a splash of ads, and viola, that’s programming. The delay caused by the distributors, and then the further delays caused by TV networks waiting for the best time to broadcast the show, to fit in with their other shows and with rating considerations, sometimes meant that there was a period of weeks, months, and sometimes even years between the first broadcast of the episode (usually in the US), and broadcast elsewhere. And due to deals with TV networks, the show’s release on DVD may even be delayed in the same geographical region, so viewers were left with no option other than waiting, and sometimes hoping, the TV networks would broadcast their favourite show or the new episodes. This gave TV networks a lot of power in controlling what people watched, and when. So they did things like cutting parts from episodes so fit in more ads, or putting in repeats and saving new episodes for a better time. And shows which didn’t have the viewership numbers would get abandoned mid season, usually with no explanation. It’s safe to say that TV networks didn’t really respect their viewers, who really was just a number to them.

TV Show Torrents

The latest episode of TV shows are now easily downloadable on torrent websites, stealing TV viewers by the handful

But then the Internet came along, and instead of waiting for your local TV station to broadcast the latest episode, you could just go to your favourite Torrent destination and grab the latest episode, usually hours after the initial broadcast. And thanks to digital and high definition TV, the quality of the download kept on improving. And of course, no ads! Only the fact that downloads require a bit of technical skill has meant that many viewers still rely on TV, but the tech savvy, young viewers, the most valuable set of “numbers” for the networks, went away and never came back.

And so we now have the current situation. TV networks can’t compete with Torrents, not on speed of delivery, not on the lack of ads, and not even on the choice of shows and backlogs of episodes available. And with subscription television at least offering some timed exclusives, and greater range of shows, where does that leave the traditional TV network? It’s time for change, and I’m not talking about the fairly superficial change from SD to HD.

First of all, speed of delivery. While TV networks could get away with not airing a show months after it first aired in the US, this is no longer acceptable. A huge chunk of TV piracy would be eliminated right away if the same episode of a show is shown across the world at roughly the same time, certainly no more than a day or two’s delay at most. The good news is that TV networks are doing this more often, at least here in Australia, what they call “fast track”. But “fast track” still sometimes means a delay of a week, which in the age of the Internet, might as well be a year.

Ads are important for revenue, and I don’t think it is realistic for TV networks to compete with Torrents by getting rid of ads. However, you should never underestimate what people are willing to do to get good, free stuff. So if the latest episode of Lost is being shown on my local TV channel only hours after the original broadcast, then people might be willing to forgive the ads, and forgo the trouble of finding, downloading and getting the downloaded TV episode to play on their TV. You can’t compete with piracy in terms of price (or in this case, lack of ads), but you can and should always beat them in terms of convenience, and if you’re not winning this battle, then you have no chance at winning the war against piracy.

Hulu

Hulu may be giving us a sneak preview of the future of TV

And that brings us to the choice of shows and access to backlogs of episodes. The Internet age gives people choice, and so instead of accepting some network executive’s idea of programming and schedules, we can make our own via pirated downloads, or via the less illegal method of time shifting involving DVRs. This is really the key to the future of the networks. TV on demand, legal access to every episode of a TV show so far, and a catalog of not just the few dozens shows that a network have time air at the moment, but hundreds and thousands of shows. The kind of convenience offered by being able to view almost anything at any time you want is something people will be willing to pay for, and if not, then willing to put up with unskippable ads for at the very least. And this kind of interactivity will mean better ads, more effective ads that are targeted towards the viewer’s interests, and in the end, more ads that viewers find more acceptable. It’s basically taking Hulu off the Internet, bringing it into people’s lounge rooms, and then expanding the available shows and episode by a large factor, and when this happens, it will be a large step towards making piracy irrelevant.

Whether any of this is realistic or not, I don’t know. There are lots of issues to resolve, like how to rollout such a service (set-top box?), or whether this competes too much with DVD sales. But there was always solutions to problems, but if nothing is done, then the piracy situation will only get worse, despite legal and governmental efforts to interfere. Time to do something.

Weekly News Roundup (11 April 2010)

Sunday, April 11th, 2010

How was your week? Mine was busy, but not so much working on the website, so no mid week blog post or new articles to promote in the intro paragraph of the WNR for this week. So let’s do the most efficient thing and get straight into the news.

Copyright

Let’s start with copyright news. The Consumerist published the account of one user with the THQ/Volition game Red Faction Guerrilla, which once again is the story of how DRM prevented a legitimate paying customer from enjoying the product he/she purchased, and once again piracy became the only solution.

Red Faction Guerrilla PC DVD-ROM

Red Faction Guerrilla DRM caused user to resort to piracy

The user tried his or her best to get THQ/Volition to resolve the issue, who didn’t want anything to do with it and instead referred the user to Microsoft, which maintains one of the DRM system used by Red Faction Guerrilla. But Microsoft then asked the user to go back to THQ/Volition, and so the only solution left was to download a pirated copy of the game, just so the user can enjoy the game that he or she paid for.

First of all, it’s totally irresponsible for game publishers to bring out poorly implemented DRM and then not provide support for it. It’s exactly this kind of attitude that make buying games not worth the trouble, since you’re not getting any extra services compared to pirated version. This is especially true for PC games, most of which will barely run without crashing on half of the PCs out there, mostly due to poor programming. What is more annoying is that game publishers justify these kind of stories, which are becoming increasingly common, by saying that this prevents piracy. But does it? Only the recent Ubisoft effort has managed to stifle pirates, but it may only be a temporary reprieve. But most other forms of DRM have been comprehensively cracked, and as I’ve analysed in my PC DRM discussion blog post, the only thing DRM manages to is to give publishers a false sense of security, to make them feel like they’re doing something. The argument is that why should publishers make it easy for pirates, but the problem is that they also make it harder for legitimate paying customers. The only kind of DRM that is acceptable is one that does not cause paying customers any inconvenience – if this means that it will be less effective against pirates, then so be it. I mean, it’s like asking people to accept a lock to your front door that occasionally locks out the owner, and then rewrite the law to make it illegal to try and break the lock (so you can get into your own home). And then to add insult to injury, the lock maker refuses to offer any help in trying to fix the problem, mostly because they know they can’t do much to fix it. In the real world, nobody would accept any of this, but somehow when it comes to DRM, we’re supposed to be okay with it all.

And it’s not okay to just say “well, the user resolved the issue after downloading the pirated copy”. What that user did was still highly illegal, and he or she may get caught and face big fines, even prison – all while having tried to do the decent thing in the first place. There are now more and more firms that have been set up to take advantage of the unfair copyright laws to go after users that have attempted to download pirated content, and if the user who wrote in to the Consumerist was caught, then that would mean a double whammy – having paid for the game and then “fined” for piracy of it. Of course, the actions of these firms is another point of contention with the current set of biased copyright laws. These companies are only interested in making money, or monetizing, off piracy, not preventing it – this is not an educated guess, but it’s very much out in the open and these firms openly admit to the fact that they’re only there to take advantage of copyright laws to make a quick buck. You may call the actions of these firms legal blackmail, but as long as the law allows it, then they’re not doing anything wrong. What is wrong is a law that can find an user guilty just because they attempted to download pirated content. Up to the point an user downloads something to their computer, it could be the case where no damages has actually been made against the copyright holders. Only until that user starts to enjoy the content in question, then that’s when possible damages could have occurred, but of course only if the user has intentions to purchase the content in the first place. The situation is a little bit more complex in relation to BitTorrent, since you’re uploading while you’re downloading, so you are “making available” pirated content. But for straight HTTP downloads, this is pretty straight forward. Imagine a scenario where I download an illegal copy of a movie from RapidShare, and then upon completion, I delete the file right away without viewing it – what harm exactly did I do to the copyright holders of the movie? But even with BitTorrent, you’re only sharing small chunks of the file in question, unless you become a seeder and share the file for an extended period, you’re not contributing much at all to the sharing process (as leechers who are annoyed at the lack of seeders, will agree).

The Digital Economy Bill passes through the British House of Commons

It’s these nuances that legislation, like the recently passed UK Digital Economy Bill, do not cover sufficiently, as the people writing the laws usually often do not have a clue how the Internet works, let alone sub-networks like BitTorrent. Politicians equate the Internet with distribution channels such as books and movies, where they say censorship and monitoring needs to occur to prevent harmful content being distributed, and that copyright holders get their deserved rewards. But the Internet is really more like the telephone system. Should the government monitor your phone calls just to see if you’re talking about something wrong? And then ban you from using the phone if they find you doing something they, or rather the corporations that they serve, don’t like? It’s these real world examples that exist in which politicians should be drawing parallels with when writing new legislation, but their ignorance is exploited by lobbyist and then we get things like the DMCA and now the DEB. The DEB was passed without any serious debate, because I think the MPs involved wouldn’t know what to say even if they cared enough to say something.

And the Net Neutrality debate will be yet another one in which political entities will have the final say despite not being able to fully understand just what it’s about, the issue has come to the fore because the FCC lost a court case in which they wanted to see if they could enforce Net Neutrality standards, but it appears it is beyond their scope.Even for someone who has done reading on the issue, and generally speaking, somewhat knowledgeable on this interweb thingy, I can’t say I’m fully versed in all the arguments on this front, although I’m definitely in the “pro Net Neutrality” camp at the moment. The reason is that movie studios, via ISPs, can implement all sorts of nasty anti-piracy measures if Net Neutrality was defeated, and ISPs will have the power, whether intentionally or not, to promote preferred content and push other content aside into web “ghettos”. The highest bidder will ensure their content gets full speed access, while other content will have to share a very limited bandwidth pool, for example. ISPs are already doing this with P2P filtering and throttling, and it’s a dangerous road to go down.

The greatest thing about the Internet is that any idiot can write something (say, a weekly news roundup, for example), get it published and read by anyone, without limitations being imposed by the powers that be (ie. big media). You can’t do this on radio, and you can’t get things shown on TV unless you hand over a big wad of cash (and even then, it might not be enough). With the Internet, there’s no such limited, but if Net Neutrality is preserved, then this power to publish will be in jeopardy. While not really the same issue, but the increased frequency in which videos are being removed from YouTube due to false allegations of copyright abuse shows what could happen if your right to publish is at the hands of a powerful entity (in YouTube’s case, it’s the copyright holders and Google arbitrarily sometimes deciding whether a video stays or goes). I bring up YouTube because I want to segue to the next story about the removal of RedLetterMedia’s hilarious, accurate, and sometimes disturbing, movie reviews, the most famous (or infamous) of which is the Star Wars Episode One review. The reviews are quite long and uses a lot of footage from the movies, but this kind of fair use is allowed. The auto scanning tools used by firms that scour YouTube for copyright abuse (so they can make money off copyright holders when they take action to get the videos removed) are usually not smart enough to distinguish between genuine fair use and blatant piracy, and so this is probably why the review was removed. Luckily, they were put back up soon after, but only after much public outrage. For the videos that are not as popular, then the less audible outrage will often fail to make an impression, no matter how many times you email YouTube asking for your account to be re-enabled. And our power to publish diminishes the more big media comes to try and control our Internet.

High Definition

Let’s move onto high definition news. The Blu-ray specifications has seen some additions this week, although it’s not something that should concern most Blu-ray owners, especially those that are using Blu-ray for movie playback, as opposed to archiving and other computing based applications.

The changes are the addition of two new sub-formats to Blu-ray, called BDXL and IH-BD. BDXL increases the capacity of Blu-ray discs to 128 GB for write-once discs, and 100 GB for write-many discs. Unfortunately, BDXL is not backwards compatible with currently Blu-ray drives, and so it will unlikely be used for publishing movies. Expect BDXL to be supported by certain Blu-ray writer drives for PCs, but not used extensively except by specialist applications such as data archival. IH-BD is a similarly specialist sub-format, where the Blu-ray discs has both read-only and writable layers on the same side, allowing important data to be stored on the read-only layer, while the writable layer allows for the entry of new data. This is actually something I had expected the original Blu-ray specifications to include, since I think these kind of discs has great potential. Imagine a Blu-ray game disc that allows all the saves and changes to be made to the disc itself, and you can carry it from console to console without having to import/export your save files.

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring Blu-ray Screenshot

Fellowship of the Ring on Blu-ray is chock full of Digital Noise Reduction, note the lack of grain in the background

The Lord of the Rings theatrical trilogy on Blu-ray has been released, and reviewed on Blu-ray.com. While the review says that it is still something people should want, they also referred to the lack of the extended edition content, lackluster extra features and poor video quality for Fellowship in particular. It is still the best quality version of the Lord of the Rings movies to date, but it isn’t the definitive version that people that had already purchased several different versions of the movie had expected. So hold on to your theatrical edition DVDs, as these can still look pretty good on a quality upscaling player, and then wait to grab the extended edition Blu-rays when they arrive later in the year, hopefully with the Fellowship video quality issues fixed. As far as I’m concerned, the Lord of the Rings movies are made for Blu-ray, and it should deserve the attention of the best of Blu-ray releases, that we known Warner are capable of producing (the Blade Runner 5-disc set, for example). Instead, they’ve been treated worse than some second rate B-movies, and keeping the extra features on DVDs in this set, instead of transferring to Blu-ray, and not even bothering creating new disc art other than to slap on the Blu-ray logo, just shows how much of a rushed effort this was. Which is strange because Warner/New Line had plenty of time to create a proper Blu-ray set. But I guess they’re saving that for the eventual quadruple dip release. The sales stats for LOTR will be available next next Tuesday, and it will be interesting to see if it was a huge seller or not. A title like this should easily be one of the best selling titles ever on Blu-ray. Right now, I can see it winning the week in terms of sales, but even that is not certain.

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring HDTV

Lower bitrate HD broadcast version of Fellowship, without DNR problems - compared it side by side with the screenshot above

Also a note on combo discs. Blu-ray stats usually count Blu-ray/DVD combo discs as Blu-ray only, and with more studios releasing movies in a single, combo only edition  (Disney, for example), this can lead to inflated figures for Blu-ray as even those that only want the DVD version are forced to get the combo and then counted as a Blu-ray buyer in the stats. And even when a “DVD only” version is available, these are often priced not very competitively compared to the Blu-ray version (usually only a couple of dollars cheaper), and again this favours the Blu-ray stats. It would be better if combos were not counted as part of either DVD or Blu-ray stats, maybe even having their own separate stats. This would actually be quite useful when it comes to stats analysis, and may point to whether we should have more combos or not, since I think they’re a good idea and should become standard during the transition from DVD to Blu-ray.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, Sony may yet regret their decision to remove the “Other OS” option from the PS3. Some say it was due to cost cutting, as keeping up support for the “Other OS” function in every firmware update is troublesome to the extreme.

Some think the recent work towards making Linux based emulators has Sony worried about people using the PS3 to play illegally downloaded games, and maybe even emulated PS2 games. But most others feel it is an preemptive strike that those aiming to hack the PS3, and amongst the most infamous is Geohot, who has just shown us a video of firmware 3.21 (the one without “Other OS”) running Other OS.

Regardless of the reason for removing Other OS, many PS3 owners are unhappy, since this was a well advertised feature of the console, and many feel that Sony remotely removing the feature is a bad precedent that could see other features removed. One user did complain to Amazon UK, who just happened also to be a moderator at the Neogaf forum, and amazingly, he got a refund from Amazon for 20% of the cost of his PS3 purchase. He cited European laws regarding product descriptions. No doubt others will try the same, and it’s unknown if Amazon or Sony will be paying up, if they continue to do so (I suspect not).

Sony, for example, could easily disable Blu-ray playback via a firmware update, to help promote their standalone players. Of course, this is as likely to happen as Sony releasing a free PS2 emulator on Xbox Live for Xbox 360 owners, and if they do this, then expect the world’s largest and most successful lawsuit ever – full refund for all PS3 owners, yeah!

Now to a firmware update of a different, more traditional nature – you know, one that actually adds features. Xbox 360 owners will now be able to use flash drives to complement existing Xbox 360 storage, allowing things like downloadables, games saves to flash drives that have 1 GB to 16 GB capacity. A large range is supported, although Microsoft and Sandisk will be releasing “official” flash drives for the Xbox 360 (but at about double the price of non official drives). PS3 owners have had the ability to swap out the built-in hard-drive themselves without having to void their warranty, so while the PS3 storage capacity cannot be upgraded using an official solution, they’ve always been able to increase storage at an extremely low price point (compared to flash drives or the over priced Xbox 360 hard-drive add-on).

That’s it for the week. I will try to post a mid week blog or something so I won’t appear to be lazying through yet another week.