DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

July figures are now available from NPD for US video game sales, and there are a couple of surprises, although probably only one good surprise for one company in particular. June figures showed some year on year improvement by the likes of the Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3, which offset the bad news about the decline for the DS and the worrying figures for the PSP. July is traditionally not as good a month as June, so all eyes will on which consoles can do the business this month, and which are in serious trouble. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in July 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (July 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 443,500 (Total: 21 million; July 2009: 202,900 – up 119%)
• DS: 398,400 (Total: 43 million; July 2009: 538,900 – down 26%)
• Wii: 253,900  (Total: 29.8 million; July 2009: 252,900 – up 0.4%)
• PS3: 214,500 (Total: 12.9 million; July 2009: 121,800 – up 76%)
• PSP: 84,000 (Total: 17.4 million; July 2009: 122,800 – down 32%)

NPD July 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

Time to make a prediction. The new Xbox 360 Elite fever continues, and there’s a good chance it will outsell the Wii (and PS3) yet again. So my guess is that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same for July, but with hardware sales generally down a bit compared to June as historically has been the case. As for games, Super Mario Galaxy 2 to rule in the absence of any real quality new releases. NCAA Football 11 should make the top 10, the Xbox 360 version outselling the PS3 version. How can I forget Crackdown 2, the sequel to the very first Xbox 360 game I ever owned. It should do well, but topping the chart? I don’t know about that (it’s already 39th in the sales charts on Amazon, and that doesn’t look like a rank that belongs to a number one title).

I was I was close to the mark, but I just couldn’t see the Xbox 360 outselling the DS, not just the Wii, but that’s exactly what happened. Although the Xbox 360’s number one was earned with much help from decreasing DS sales, but when most consoles saw month to month drop in sales, the results were still remarkable. As for games, I think what I predicted mostly came true, but otherwise it was a slow month for game sales.

The Xbox 360, thanks to the new “Slim” or we’ll just refer to it as the Xbox 360 250GB, has done wonders for Xbox 360 sales, but that’s really not a surprise. The DSi, PS3 Slim all helped to post what proved fairly temporary sales increases, and the 250GB model may run out of steam next month. But of course, Microsoft has the new Arcade replacing 4GB, matte “Slim” version out in August, and so that might help keep hardware sales up. And then in September, Halo Reach is released, and a Halo title will always help push hardware sales, so it looks good for Microsoft until Kinect hits the market. Whether Kinect will prove a hit or not, that’s still too early to say, but early signs are encouraging.

For Nintendo though, decline in DS sales and an almost negligible year on year growth for the Wii is starting to look a bit worrying. Of course, with the 3DS on the horizon, Nintendo won’t be too concerned with the year on year comparison (which saw a 26% drop in sales), last year’s figure boosted by the DSi. The Wii numbers are slightly more worrying, since the numbers are starting to look like one for a console that’s running out of ideas. Price cuts can help, but with Sony and Microsoft’s own motion gaming systems on the way, the Wii looks quite last-gen in the face of the competition.

For Sony’s systems, the PS3 is still getting a healthy year on year result every month, but remember that the PS3 was doing extremely poorly this time last year (although next month’s figures for 2009 should start to reflect the Slim and price cut’s effects, at least partially), and large growth means nothing if you’re comparing it to a poor period. But compared to the Xbox 360 or the Wii, it still isn’t doing what it is capable of, and despite the poor Wii numbers this month, the PS3 numbers were still lower. And this is with the stock issues cleared up. The PS3 numbers for July 2010 are actually lower than the PS3 numbers for July 2008 (225,000), and that’s not a great sign despite price drops, new form factor, and many many more games being released since that time. The PSP, well, the less said about that the better. Pretty soon, the NPD will have to remove the PSP numbers just like they did with the PS2 numbers, because frankly, it’s just not competitive with the DS, even with the poorer than usual DS sales numbers.

Let’s move onto software. As expected, the two versions of NCAA Football 11 for the Xbox 360 and PS3 topped the sales charts, but the gap between the two console versions has narrowed considerable compared to last year. NCAA Football 11 sold slightly less than NCAA Football 10 on the Xbox 360, but the same comparison saw more PS3 sales. While the Xbox 360 holds a 1.6:1 sales ratio to the PS3, in terms of hardware, the software margin seems to be much closer. The Xbox 360 exclusive Crackdown 2 managed to get third place, while Super Mario Galaxy 2 is still the best selling Wii title for the month (New Super Mario Bros. was the only other Wii title in the top 10, at 9th). The DS version of Lego Harry Potter Year 1 – 4 managed to grab 5th place. For the Xbox 360, there were two more titles in the top 10, Red Dead Redemption (the PS3 version has dropped out of the top 10 for this title), and an oldie, but goodie, Call of Duty: MW2. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies for the DS was the remaining title in the top 10, at 8th.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. NCAA Football 11 (Xbox 360, EA) – 368,000
2. NCAA Football 11 (PS3, EA) – 298,000
3. Crackdown 2 (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 208,800
4. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 193,000
5. LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (DS, Warner Bros.) – 141,700
6. Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360, Take-Two)
7. LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Wii, Warner Bros.)
8. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS, Nintendo)
9. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo)
10. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision)

It’s time to make the usual predictions. Looking at the Amazon charts, the new Xbox 360 4GB isn’t actually doing fantastically, and it’s being outsold by the 250GB. So while most people are predicting that it would be another month where the Xbox 360 rules, I’m not as certain. I think sales will do well, but it might be the case of things being very close, with the new 4GB probably just allowing the Xbox 360 to sneak to top spot. In games, NCAA Football is usually followed by Madden NFL, the 11th version, and that will always do well. But otherwise, it’s another slow month before the busy holiday period begins, so the top 10 should look pretty familiar.

See you next month.