DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

Thank the stars that through relatively good sales results, leaks and blind luck, that we have fairly accurate NPD sales stats for all three home consoles for the month of May 2011, and so our monthly NPD analysis continues for another month. With the PSN outage lasting for pretty much all of May (if you include the PSN Store outage), this month’s PS3 sales stats are particularly interesting to see if the outage has affected sales. E3’s major announcements have all been made, and so, it’s been a busy few weeks for gaming. For those that are new to this, this analysis looks at US video games sales figures compiled by NPD, unreleased by NPD due to pressure from the gaming companies, but then leaked by various sources, including gaming companies, if/when it suits them.

The figures for US sales in May 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 270,000 (Total: 27.3 million; May 2010: 194,600 – up 39%)
• Wii: 236,000  (Total: 35.7 million; May 2010: 334,900 – down 30%)
• PS3: 175,000 (Total: 16.9 million; May 2010: 154,500 – up 13%)

NPD May 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I don’t really want to make a prediction next month, because if I’m right, and that the PS3 number falls due to the PSN outage, then Sony won’t release the figures, and we don’t have an NPD. Regardless, I think the Xbox 360 would still be the top selling console, so it’s just a matter of how much the PSN outage hurts the PS3, and how much the Wii price cut helps the Wii. The biggest game new releases for May are L.A. Noire, Brink and LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean.

I should have stuck to my guns and not made any predictions, because it turns out that PS3 sales held and even rose compared to last month, and also compared to a year ago, and so Sony had no qualms about releasing the figures. It was Nintendo, strangely, that was the holdout until good old reliable Michael Pachter came to the rescue again and released the Wii numbers in an investor report. The Wii price cut did help the Wii to record a sales rise compared to April, thanks to the price drop. Ironically, it was the Xbox 360 that was the only home based console to record a drop in sales compared to April, but it was also the console that recorded by far the highest year-on-year growth – go figure! As for games, I did make the right prediction here, and even made it in the right order in terms of the top 3 sellers for May.

Let’s start with the PS3 numbers, which was the most anticipated set. The PS3, while still coming last in terms of sales, did record a year-on-year growth of 13%, as well as a minor increase in sales compared to April. This seems to suggest the PSN outage did not affect sales all that much. Sony also stated that this was the 4th month in a row that PS3 sales saw double digit growth, which is impressive considering the shenanigans of the last two month with the PSN. Apart from touting exclusives, Sony spent much of the time showing off their new portable, PlayStation Vita, as well as a PS3 3D TV that allows two player game play without a split screen, turning the 3D technology and glasses for 2D use.

Xbox 360 sales did fall compared to April, but compared to May 2010, hardware sales rose 39%, the highest out of all the consoles. The reason for the monthly fall may be due to April’s better than average result (which was 60% higher than April 2010, double the usual average). Certainly, looking at these numbers, the Xbox 360 looks the most healthy. For E3, Kinect was the focus, as it has been the catalyst behind the recent good results. Microsoft is promising all future first party titles will feature some Kinect features, which will be interesting. They also launched Kinect Labs, which is the Kinect app store. Kinect is keeping the Xbox 360 on top, and so it makes sense for Microsoft to concentrate on this area, especially since with the announcement of Wii U, we know that it is the sole console doing the “no controllers” thing.

That leaves the Wii, which could become the most sickly of all the consoles, despite outselling the PS3. The reason I say this is that given the trend of decline, around 30% compared to a year ago, by this time next year, it will be the worst selling home console. The trend has been pretty consistent, and it doesn’t look like it’s slowing at all. Which probably explains why Nintendo was the only company to unveiled a new home based console at E3, the Wii U. With no firm release date other than “sometime in 2012”, the Wii will have to suffer for a bit longer, but by the time that the PS3 does finally overtake the console the Wii U surely won’t be far away from release, which is probably what Nintendo is counting on. Certainly, it makes sense that Nintendo would be the first company out of the three to launch a new console, despite not being the first company to release their current generation consoles (Microsoft’s Xbox 360 was launched a year earlier). The Wii hardware is the oldest out of the three consoles, and it needed a refresh most urgently. The Wii U will feature hardware that’s 50% more powerful than the PS3, which sounds really impressive until you realise that the PS3 hardware is about 6 years old already (developed in 2005, launched in 2006), so 50% may not even be enough, because the next Microsoft or Sony console could again leave the Wii trailing behind in the graphics stakes. But graphics are not that important any more, considering the 6 year old PS3 still looks fantastic even on a 1080p screen. As for the Wii U’s innovative control system, with the controller that also doubles as a second screen, it certainly is different. It could be the difference that makes it a hit, or it could be just too complicated for the casual gaming market that’s used to the Wii’s simplicity. With that said, what Nintendo is promising could already be possible on the PS3 and Xbox 360 if you listen closely to recent announcement. Back in February, Microsoft announced that future Windows Phones (and tablets, I’m guessing), would come with Kinect interactivity, and with Sony launching Vita, it could also link to the PS3 in the same way the Wii U controller links to on screen action. Sure, it wouldn’t be a nice and polished package as the Wii U, but if either company can demo something similar on existing hardware before the Wii U launches, then that will steal a lot of Nintendo’s thunder. For me though, the Wii U is as much about innovation, as it is about getting back in favor with the hardcore gaming crowd.

Onto games. As predicted, the month’s top 3 sellers were L.A. Noire, Brink and Lego Pirates of the Caribbean, in this order. Nothing else on the list was of any surprise, so it’s probably not worth the trouble to discuss game sales any further, other than to add that combined, games sales are down 19% compared to last year, and that only the Xbox 360 recorded an increase in software unit sales (but that increase was only 1%, so it’s hardly a great result). Fewer games were released in May though, and genre specific releases that were not as good as what was present last year. The steady decline in physical disc sales may be attributed to digital sales (especially on the PC, which is included in the NPD figures), and probably also due to increased competition from smartphone/tablet gaming – something that Nintendo is hoping to address via Wii U (Sony via Android gaming phones, and Microsoft via Windows Phone Xbox 360 connectivity). Here’s the full software sales chart for May:

1. L.A Noire (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
2. Brink (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
4. Portal 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
5. Mortal Kombat 2011 (Warner Bros. Interactive, PS3, Xbox 360)
6. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
7. Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
8. NBA 2K11 (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, PC)
9. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
10. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)

Prediction time? No big changes, so the same hardware ordering as this month. The new top selling games will be Infamous 2 and Duke Nukem Forever (on a side note, ‘Forever’ really is such an apt name for the game considering the development time), but the overall top sellers will be some of the same titles as in May.

See you next month.