Archive for June, 2013

Weekly News Roundup (30 June 2013)

Sunday, June 30th, 2013

So I was watching The Colbert Report on Hulu Plus last night, and out of nowhere, the screen goes black, the PS3 beeps a few times, and it now refuses to start up again. The dreaded Yellow Light of Death. I guess it was only a matter of time for my launch model PS3, and it’s not worth spending money to repair it, not with the price of the PS3 Slim and not when the PS4 is just around the corner. I might try one of the DIY fixes for the YLOD problem, nothing to lose really now. This brings the number of devices connected to my TV (or the TV itself) capable of Netflix and Hulu Plus playback down to “only” three.

On with the news …

CopyrightBitTorrent Inc fired another salvo in their war of semantics over the term ‘BitTorrent’ this week by declaring war on news stories that said Game of Thrones broke a ‘BitTorrent piracy record’.

BitTorrent Inc says that there’s no such thing as a ‘BitTorrent piracy record’, since piracy does not exist on the BitTorrent ecosystem. Of course, what  Matt Mason, VP of marketing at BitTorrent Inc was referring to was the part of the BitTorrent ecosystem that BitTorrent Inc has direct control over. All fine and good, except nobody (probably not even the MPAA) has actually accused BitTorrent Inc of doing anything untoward.

BitTorrent Logo

BitTorrent Inc again trying to distance themselves from piracy, even though most people aren’t making the connection, nor even know that BitTorrent, the company, actually exists

When people do use phrases like ‘BitTorrent piracy record’, they’re of course referring to the BitTorrent network that is publicly accessible over the open source BitTorrent protocol.

This kind of arguments over semantics isn’t new or limited to BitTorrent either. Usenet is the next most prominent example, and even FTP, at one point in time, become far too closely linked to piracy for its own good. It’s just that in the case of BitTorrent, it’s unfortunate that an actual company exists with the same name as the protocol.

As I posted before, maybe a company name change is the best way forward. After all, most people who transfer files over BitTorrent aren’t even aware of BitTorrent Inc’s existence, nor do most people realise that this is the same company behind the super popular uTorrent client. There’s nothing to be lost really from changing BitTorrent Inc to something else.

I would also suggest BitTorrent Inc go and look up the Streisand Effect the next time they want to distance themselves from the BitTorrent/piracy controversy.

But maybe piracy isn’t the dirty word it used to be. The anti-piracy chief at Warner Bros. says that pirates may in fact be consumers that have not been served well by movie studios. In a frank Q&A ahead of the Anti-Piracy and Content Protection Summit, anti-piracy boss David Kaplan admits that the piracy problem may in fact be a supply and demand one, rather than the traditional thinking that all pirates are dirty rotten no-good thieves.

Piracy may very well be the result of poorly met demand. And Kaplan says that a studio like WB should “take advantage of that demand by offering fans what they are looking for when they are looking for it.”

While I think it’s true that some will always pirate, many others can be swayed by a good offer to “go legit”, if the price, and the service, is right. It doesn’t have to be free, as in beer or as in DRM, but it has to be seen as good value, and that’s all it takes.

Kaplan also touched on the issue of ‘fan use’, and says WB plans to take a much looser view of such infractions, to allows fans to use copyright content in a creative way. It’s certainly cheaper and easier than hiring a PR firm to create fake fan videos in the hope they’d go viral.

But let’s wait and see if WB’s actions match their words, as it’s only been a couple of weeks since it was revealed that WB was behind one of the more recent attempts to go after downloaders.

ZackScottGames - Nintendo Videos

Nintendo videos are making a comeback on the ZackScottGames YouTube channel, as Nintendo relaxes copyright grip on Let’s Play videos

Speaking of taking it easy on ‘fan use’, you may remember that Nintendo found itself in a PR nightmare recently by clamping down on exactly this kind of fan use, by claiming copyright on YouTube Let’s Play videos. While they didn’t remove any videos, they did take away the small amount of revenue the creators of these videos needed to keep their hobby alive. Nobody at that time, including me, could understand why Nintendo had to step in. Were they that desperate for revenue, considering the misfiring nature of the Wii U?

But just this week, Nintendo seems to have copied Microsoft and has done its own copyright 180. It appears the company is no longer claiming revenue on at least one Let’s Play video series, owned by the very same Zack Scott that issued a boycott of Nintendo games because of the copyright claim. Zack is getting revenue again for this Nintendo videos, and if it continues, it means he can afford to publish more Nintendo videos in the future.

If Nintendo are still unsure what they need to do here, here’s some sage advice from Warner Bros’ anti-piracy head David Kaplan: “We give a wide berth to ‘fan use’ and permit fans to use and interact with our content in ways that might technically still constitute copyright infringement, but do not directly substitute for the full length feature, episode or game.”

And on that note, we come to the end of this rather short WNR. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (23 June 2013)

Sunday, June 23rd, 2013

Take the Xbox 360, go back 359 steps to get the Xbox One, but then do a 180, and you get the new Xbox, same as the old Xbox. Kudos to Microsoft for taking the risk in the first place, and then sense to reverse everything. I know some will say that going back to the old and safe is a coward’s way out, but for a company as big as Microsoft where the wheels turn very slowly indeed, I’m surprised they were able to reverse course as quickly and as decisively as they did. Anyway, more on this later, as we start this WNR with the usual copyright news first.

CopyrightThe White House was in full self-praise mode this week as the Obama  administration’s Copyright Czar released the 2013 Joint strategic Plan On Intellectual Property Enforcement (IPEC) report.

The Pirate Bay 3D Ship Model

3D printing piracy is on the White House’s hit list

The report highlighted the various controversial achievements the administration has made on the issue of IP enforcement, including the controversial Operation In Our Sites (which managed to seize a bunch of innocent domains by circumventing due process) and the controversial Megaupload raid (which is looking increasingly fishy as time goes on), and also welcomed new industry-led initiatives such as the controversial ISP six-strikes program and urged for more of the same.

Focusing not only on the past and present, the report also looked into the future and pointed out the areas in which new controversial measures can be deployed. Cloud computing, mobile computing, data storage and especially 3D printing were all singled out as areas that might need an urgent dose of anti-innovation.

3D printing is especially interesting due to the recent news involving the administration’s crackdown on 3D printable guns. Conservative and pro-gun groups were not impressed, as expected, but I wonder what their reactions would have been if people had been able to download and print copyrighted gun designs from the likes of Ruger, Remington and Smith & Wesson? Copyright and protecting the interests of gun makers might just out-trump their believe in the right to bear arms.

High Definition

Blu-ray revenue for 2012 was up 10%, with an even bigger increase in unit sales as the average price of Blu-ray titles dropped to just under $20, a new report shows.

Blu-ray sales and digital delivery helped to offset declines in DVD sales, and helped to produce a 0.25% rise in home entertainment spending in 2012. It doesn’t sound like much, but this was the first time in seven years that an increase, any increase, was recorded.

Reading the report, I also found that I’m in the top 10% of disc buyers, who spent on average $527 on movies in 2012. I spent nearly this much just on Amazon’s Black Friday sales last year, I think.

For more Blu-ray sales stats, have a look at my analysis from a few weeks ago, which indicated a 10% increase in average weekly revenue in the past year, so not too far off.

Gaming

Who says complaining on the Internet doesn’t work? Complaining got iTunes (and the music industry) to remove DRM. Complaining got SimCity buyers a free game that was actually playable and better than SimCity. And this week, complaining got Microsoft to turn the Xbox One into the Xbox 180, completely reversing the controversial DRM changes previously introduced.

Xbox One disc based games will now work in exactly the same fashion as Xbox 360 games (and PS4 games). No more once-every-24 hours Internet connection requirements, no more used game trading restrictions – status quo here we come! The downside of the reversal is that game discs will again be needed every time you play a game, which is a shame.

Xbox One Forza 5

It’s back to the future with the Xbox One – DRM will now be exactly the same as the Xbox 360 after Microsoft backs down

And almost lost in the good news, Microsoft is finally getting rid of regional restrictions, so no more PAL/NTSC nonsense when buying games overseas.

So does this make the Xbox One a contender again? Well to be honest, it always was. But the PS4’s $100 cheaper price tag and the fact that not everyone wants a Kinect, means the advantage is still with the PS4. Just not as big as it was last week. Now that the DRM distraction is over, Microsoft can concentrate on convincing gamers why the Xbox One is better than the PS4, how the built-in Kinect can allow for experiences that won’t be available on the PS4, and the benefits of having a system designed as a centerpiece of your home entertainment needs. Still a steep mountain to climb for Microsoft, but at least it’s no longer Mount Everest. Please vote in our post-Microsoft-DRM-backdown poll here to let me know if you’ve changed your mind on the Xbox One.

And I know people can get carried away with good news like this, but please do not refer to the PS4 or the Xbox One as having “no DRM”. I’ve already seen one article that describes the Xbox One policy change as “no more DRM”, and that’s just not true. There’s always been DRM on game consoles – it’s why you need to insert the disc to play the game even if you’ve already installed the game to your HDD – and they will most likely always be there. For the PS4 and Xbox One to be truly DRM free for gaming, discs should not be required after the initial install, there shouldn’t be any need for online checks, and there should be unlimited installs per disc (as to facilitate sharing, trading, etc…). There’s a better chance of a Halo game for the PS4, or a Uncharted game for the Xbox One, than this DRM-free thing happening unfortunately.

Still, I can’t help but feel a little disappointed in that the Xbox One will now basically be the same as the PS4. Some of the changes were actually good ideas (no more discs, and for the first time, having a system that allows for digital goods to be traded/sold …), but the actual implementation and the PR was just horrible. Had Microsoft stuck to their guns, it would have either revolutionized console gaming, or it would have been the worst fail in the history of gaming. Either of which would have been extremely interesting for someone who writes about these kind of things. Oh well.

And before I move on, I thought this was funny too.

Going back to the previous generation, there are reports that the latest PS3 firmware version 4.45 is bricking consoles. Or rather, the XMB will refuse to show up after the update on selected PS3 models. Sony are aware of the problem, but have yet to release a fix. They’ve temporarily pulled the firmware from the servers, but if for some reason you get prompted for 4.45 update, best to skip it if you want to be completely safe.

Those with already bricked consoles will have to wait for a fix (the latest is that Sony plans to release the fix next Thursday, the 27th), hopefully one that can be done over the Internet via a new update.

Xbox 360 Super Slim

The new Xbox 360 matches the design of the Xbox One

The May NPD report was also out this week. With only Microsoft providing hardware data, and not their usual “percentage of total console sales” figure, not much can be really drawn from the 114,000 Xbox 360’s that were sold in May. Other than the fact that 114,000 really isn’t a very big number at all. For comparison’s sake, 160,000 Xbox 360’s were sold in May 2012.

Even with the low number, the Xbox 360 outsold the PS3 and, the Wii and the Wii U in May in the US. No wonder the other companies no longer release solid hardware numbers.

Lost in the excitement of the Xbox One DRM fail was the news that a new Xbox 360 console, dubbed “Xbox 360 Super Slim” (despite not being any slimmer or smaller than the current Xbox 360), has been released. It’s designed like a baby version of the Xbox One, and could form part of Microsoft’s strategy to turn the 360 into their budget console (which may also be pluggable into the Xbox One’s HDMI input port for pseudo backwards compatibility).

Microsoft will hope the new Xbox 360, even though it doesn’t carry a lower price, will spur sales a bit.

And that’s another week done and dusted. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (16 June 2013)

Sunday, June 16th, 2013

With E3 happening this past week, the news was expectedly all about gaming, and in particular, about the Xbox One’s controversial licensing changes. As a result, this week’s WNR is a bit shorter than normal, since there’s only so many articles and comments I can read on the issue before I want to pull my hair out due to the childish fanboism. And there’s only so much I can say about digital licensing and used game restrictions before it becomes a bit boring.

It can be easy to lose perspective and forget why we’re all into gaming in the first place – to play fun video games. It’s something to remember for us “fans”, and also something that game companies should never forget.

Let’s get started …

CopyrightSeason 3 of Game of Thrones ended this week, and while the final episode was nothing to write home about (unlike the previous one), this did not deter downloaders who managed to set a new BitTorrent piracy record. At one point, more than 170,000 people were sharing episode 10, “Mhysa”, and more than a million downloads were made in the first day alone.

Mhysa

Game of Thrones more popular on BitTorrent than Dany is with slaves

This isn’t really that surprising considering the previous record had been set by the first episode of this season.

What was slightly more surprising was that of all the countries that participated in the download frenzy, Australia managed to beat more populous countries like the US and the UK. The signs had been there, what with Arrested Development fans in Melbourne making it the top city for AD downloads just two weeks ago.

The reason for this unexpected surge from down under? Well, out of all the countries where GoT piracy is rife, I would not be too surprised to find that Australia has the least attractive options for watching the show legally. Piracy is an access problem, repeat ad infinitum.

Gaming

E3 promised to reveal all, and it hasn’t disappointed. Microsoft were first up with the Xbox One, and the only piece of information we weren’t really sure about at this point was the price. At $500, the new Xbox launches at a higher price point than its predecessor, as the inclusion of the Kinect camera has obviously pushed up the price of the console.

It was then Sony’s turn, and they took full advantage of the fact that they had the later reveal. Priced at $100 cheaper than the Xbox One, the also boxy looking PS4 was also officially confirmed to have no used games restrictions (at least no official support for restrictions – the news was broken at E3 to rapturous applause, and also via this rather funny official video). The PS4 definitely has the early advantage now.

PS4 with controller and PS Eye

We now know what the PS4 looks like, and it’s price

The $400 price for the PS4 seems quite reasonable for a next-gen console, and while us Australian have to pay the Australian tax (the tax for no other reason other than being located in Australia), the RRP of $AUD 550 is still fairly reasonable (compared to the $1000+ launch price for the PS3).

With reports suggesting that the PS4 GPU may be 50% faster than the Xbox One’s, Microsoft’s $100 price premium, thanks to the inclusion of Kinect, seems to be a bad gamble. Even at this early stage, it’s clear that the gamer’s console is the PS4, while the Xbox One has failed so far to show why gamers and home entertainment enthusiasts alike should have to pay $100 more, or how compulsory Kinect 2 is going to revolutionize gaming and home entertainment. It’s still early though, and with rumors of deals being made with cable providers to subsidize the Xbox One (thanks to the console’s HDMI input port allowing integration with cable boxes), the best value console may yet turn out to be the one in two shaded black tones … erm, wait … the Microsoft one. Reports also suggest that the $400 price is only for the most basic model of the PS4, and how basic it is may change the value equation again.

You can’t really win a console generation war just based on launch events, but you can probably lose one, and Microsoft’s ill judged foray into digital DRM, coupled with the disastrous handling of the launch, and now a higher price too without showing any tangible advantages, looks set to give the PS4 a huge early advantage.

It wasn’t all fun and games for PlayStation fans though, as the announcement that online gaming will now require a PlayStation Plus subscription, a $50 per year commitment, will sting a bit for the PlayStation fans that have made fun of Xboxers having to pay to play online for all these years.

One thing is for certain though … the Wii U is really really up against it now.

Wii U Boxes

Nintendo says their gamers keep on playing their old games instead of trading them … insert joke about Wii/Wii U not having enough good games to trade for

Trying to keep themselves relevant to the discussions, Nintendo has waded in to the DRM debate as well, by claiming they don’t need to restrict the used-games trade because Nintendo games are so awesome and have such great replayability, that gamers like to keep their old games. Nintendo America President Reggie Fils-Aime also said that disc based gaming isn’t going away in the near future for Nintendo, as they don’t want to cut retailers out of the equation, as retail helps to promote consoles and games. This would be the same retailers pulling Wii U Basic stock off the shelves, one gathers.

Developers have also had their say on the Xbox One’s controversial licensing changes. Anti-DRM developer CD Projekt Red says they don’t see the DRM issue as something that would prevent them from publishing on the Xbox One, while Saints Row 4 developer Volition wants more discussions on the issue. All very diplomatic, “let’s wait and see” answers. Former Epic developer Cliff Bleszinski didn’t hold back though when he enthusiastically endorsed Microsoft’s changes, saying that the “day one $60 model” no longer worked, and that high development costs meant that there’s no longer a place for used games and rentals.

All very well, but in the end, only game sales will determine what platforms developers and publishers devote their attention to, and this depends on getting consoles into people’s homes. An interesting start to the next console wars, I have to say.

From an interesting start, to an uninteresting end. More of the same next week. So until then, have a good one!

Weekly News Roundup (9 June 2013)

Sunday, June 9th, 2013

Well, I’ve had better weeks. The only thing worse than going to bed straight after watching the Red Wedding, is going to bed after watching the Red Wedding with a mild fever. The dreams. The haunting dreams!

The next two days consisted of me trying to keep “stuff” coming out of two distinctly different orifices on my body, and only successfully preventing one of these scenarios. No Game of Thrones dreams the next night, but for the life of me, I could not remember how to actually fall sleep (and was a bit hazy on the reason for sleeping as well). I knew  it involved filling in a form and the procurement of specific coupons, but nothing I tried worked.

I’m all better now, including the ability to not only sleep and sleep excessively. Which is why I probably should get started on this WNR.

CopyrightProcessor manufacturer ARM fired a new salvo in the DRM arms race (sorry), with the company introducing a new video processor that adds built-in hardware DRM.

Leveraging the company’s existing TrustZone technology, which has been used in the past to protect sensitive transactions, ARM’s new Mali-V500 video processor will feature DRM code that shifts all video processing away from potentially vulnerable software and hardware onto the protected processor itself. This means even the operating system will be excluded from handling video decoding code, allowing the played video to be protected even on rooted systems. The least powerful of the range of V500 processors will still be powerful enough to handle the decoding of 1080p video at 60 FPS.

ARM Chipset

ARM gets DRM – video processor will exclude even the OS from video decoding to secure the video

That’s in theory anyway. TrustZone has proven to be less than secure in the recent past.

For me, as long as the DRM, in software or hardware form, does not interfere with what users want to do with the content, and works in a transparent manner, then I don’t really mind it too much. But if TrustZone prevents “untrusted” video players from handling protected video files, or it breaks interoperability, then this is exactly the kind of consumer unfriendly DRM that will end up hurting sales and promoting piracy in the long run. And another factor that I haven’t considered before is the extra processing power needed to decrypt content, which mean extra power requirements. And that goes for all DRM schemes, most of which adds extra processing to protect content that will ultimately get ripped anyway. I wonder how much electricity is wasted every year by DRM that doesn’t even work. Even if you don’t believe in climate change, that extra electricity usage will definitely be costing you financially, not to mention adding more fuel to the impending “global resource war” fire, the main source of global conflict these days.

See, I told you DRM was destroying the world.

——

For those in the U.S. trying to escape the six-strikes regime by moving to a non participating ISP, Warner Bros. is not letting you get away that easy. Reports have emerged that users on these ISPs have started receiving warning notices warning of up to $150,000 in damages (per infringed title) if they do not get a “legal release” for the low low price of $20 (with free shipping for a limited time).

Apparently, Warner is working with a firm called Digital Rights Corp (DRC), which I have talked about on here before (I think) to locate and contact infringers. Unlike other similar schemes, DRC does not actually try to find out the contact details of the suspected pirate, but rather, sends a DMCA notice (along with the legal release offer) to the ISP for them to process. The ISP then matches an IP address to the subscriber’s information, and forwards the entire notice to the subscribers.

Doing it this way avoids having to go through the courts, which have been less than friendly to these type of actions in recent times. But it also means that WB/DRC cannot actually carry through with their legal threat until they do go through the court system.

High Definition

Two short news items in HD this week. Cyberlink has announced that they’re developing a H.265 codec (or more commonly known as HEVC). I’ve discussed HEVC before, and it’s actually quite an exciting upgrade to H.264, promising the same visual quality for half the bandwidth.

I would guess the main potential application for HEVC would be 4K streaming or broadcast. With 4K viewing requiring new hardware, it’s the perfect time to introduce a new codec as well.

Blu-ray Revenue Growth - January 2010 to April 2013

Blu-ray Revenue Growth – January 2010 to April 2013

Cyberlink estimates their codec will be available to consumers sometime in 2014.

Need a Blu-ray disc that lasts 1,000 years? Enter the M-DISC. The 25GB disc works in any Blu-ray reader, but is able to withstand much more than your typical disc. Even if you don’t need it to last the whole 1,000 years, the extra tough disc means it’s more impervious to harsh environmental conditions that will typically kill normal discs, such as extreme heat, light and humidity. The M-DISC will be available in August from RITEK and Imation resellers.

And finally, don’t forget to read my (slightly late) Blu-ray: The State of Play report, which looks back at the last 12 month of Blu-ray sales data. Spoiler alert: Blu-ray has done pretty well!

Gaming

I guess they couldn’t wait until E3. Neither could anybody else, for that matter. Microsoft has finally revealed details about the changes to game licensing, authentication and even Kinect piracy, for their Xbox One console in a detailed blog post.

I don’t use bullet points a lot in the WNR, but I think for the sake of readability, I shall give it a go. For game licensing, here are the changes:

  • Game licensing moves from disc based to digital based. Your games are stored on the disc you buy, but also in the mythical cloud.
  • This means you can access your game library on any Xbox One console that is connected to the Internet.
  • For your primary console, you or your family members do not need to log in to play games.
  • Up to 10 family members can be attached to your account, and they will all have unlimited access to your entire gaming library, on any Xbox One console (even if the console is not in your home)
Xbox One Forza 5 Game Box

Trading and reselling used Xbox One games is up to the publisher, but rentals won’t be possible any more

For used games:

  • Games can be traded, sold or even gifted to a friend, but only if the publisher allows for it.
  • Trading and selling can be done at the retailer level, again, up to the publisher
  • Gifting can be done to anyone on your friends list (who has been there for at least 30 days), and also only if the publisher allows for it
  • No support for game rentals

So basically, it’s up the publisher what you can and cannot do with your used games, with Microsoft providing the tools to do so. For their part, Microsoft has stated they will not receive any financial compensation for these kind of activities. You will also be unable to rent Xbox One games in the future.

For authentication:

  • Offline gaming is limited to 24 hours (not sure if this is 24 hours of gaming, or 24 hours since the last authentication – probably the latter) on the primary console. For other consoles that have access to your library, offline gaming is limited to a single hour.
  • The restriction only applies to gaming, not Blu-ray or TV or any other function.

And finally, for Kinect privacy (some of the concerns were a bit tinfoil-hatty, if you ask me):

  • You can control what Kinect can see and hear, which means you can turn off things like auto sign-in.
  • Your conversation is not being recorded and uploaded (were people really concerned about this?)
  • When your Xbox One is off, the only command that Kinect is listening for is “Xbox On” (I have a Samsung smart TV that has the same function, when in standby mode), and you can turn this off too if you want (same with the Samsung TV)

So more information, which is good, but perhaps knowing more doesn’t help the fact that there are some fundamental and painful changes. It’s interesting to see Microsoft already shifting the used game restriction responsibility/blame off to publishers, but they’re the enablers in all of this, so they’re not blameless. It does give publisher what they’ve always wanted, a hand in the used game trade, how they will reward Microsoft for giving them this will determine whether this is a huge mistake for Microsoft, or a huge incentive for publishers to prioritize the Xbox One. Of course, if nobody ends up buying a Xbox One, then it won’t really matter how accommodating the platform is to publishers.

As for online authentication, it’s something that has had to happen with the move to digital. But 24 hours doesn’t seem long enough to me, and the 1 hour offline limit on non-primary consoles is pretty bad. I always have my game consoles connected to the Internet, as they’re pretty useless these days if you aren’t connected, so it doesn’t really affect me personally all that much. And I’d much rather a once a day online authentication, than having to find the disc, insert it and wait for it load every time I want to play. Change the 24 hours to 72, and increase the 1 hour limit on non-primary consoles to 24, and it seems much fairer to me.

Microsoft does state that they will listen to further consumer feedback and adjust these policies, but they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Judging by the reaction, gamers are still not happy (or even madder, if that was possible). It is now up to Microsoft to convince gamers that the Xbox One, despite all these restrictions, will offer a better experience. And they can start trying at E3 next week.

That’s it! All done. See you next week.

Blu-ray: The State of Play – May 2013

Saturday, June 8th, 2013

Welcome to another edition of our annual Blu-ray sales analysis, even if this one is slightly late. It’s been more of the same for Blu-ray since the last issue in this series here, and with increasing competition from streaming, and potential future competition from 4K, it’s worth having a look at where Blu-ray is.

The data used in this analysis derives from our weekly updates, based on figures released by Home Media Magazine. Some of the historical figures you’ll see have also been adjusted, due to slight tweaking of the metrics used by HMM to create these sets of data, although the changes have been very subtle and does not change the bigger picture in any way.

The first set of graphs show Blu-ray market share (Blu-ray and combo market share as a percentage of all disc sales) through the five year period that I have tracked them, with the release milestones pointed out.

Blu-ray Sales Percentage - 4 May 2008 to 20 April 2013 - Click to see larger version

Blu-ray Sales Percentage – 4 May 2008 to 20 April 2013 – Click to see larger version

As the graph is getting perhaps a bit too wide, here’s a condensed version that allows you to see Blu-ray’s market share rise more clearly.

Blu-ray Market Share - 4 May 2008 to 20 April 2013

Blu-ray Market Share – 4 May 2008 to 20 April 2013

We’ve had our fair share of milestone releases in the 52 week period since the last “State of Play” feature. While there’s no Star Wars this time around, we do have The Avengers and The Hobbit, the former responsible for the peak in the graphs above. The new market share record is now 44.23%, beating the 40.22% set by the release of The Lion King back in 2012. The up and down nature of the weekly results show that market share, like revenue, is very much release dependent. A good “A-lister” this week or a Blu-ray exclusive can get market share and revenue rising fast, but a slow week, and it goes down again. But the rising trend is clear, especially in the second graph above. The trendline just breaks above the 30% mark at the end of April 2013, and that’s probably a fair reflection of where Blu-ray market share is, or will be soon enough.

For this latest 52 week period ending 20th April 2013, the average weekly Blu-ray market share figure was 27.57%. This compares to 23.67% from the previous 52 week period. This is in-line with the 4-6% annual increase in market share that Blu-ray has experienced since inception.

It’s worth noting that Blu-ray’s rising market share has as much to do with DVD’s decline as it has to do with actual rise in Blu-ray sales, probably more so. The rise in spending in digital streaming and downloading is one of the major factors in the decline of DVD sales, in addition to the rising popularity of Blu-ray.

For Blu-ray revenue, the trend is less clear, although I have less data in this regard compared to market share (just under three and a half year’s worth), other than that there is definitely a seasonal trend within the overall trend, peaking unsurprisingly during the holidays sales period.

Blu-ray Revenue Growth - January 2010 to April 2013

Blu-ray Revenue Growth – January 2010 to April 2013

Analyzing the peaks, we’re seeing a gradual rise from year to year, and the trendline reflects this as well. Again, you can see that revenue is both release dependent (when the revenue peaks line up with the market share peaks) and seasonal dependent (when revenue peaks does not line up with market share peaks). Taking averages of these weekly results, this latest 52 week period yielded an average weekly revenue figure of $44.84 million. This compares with $39.44m and $34.05m from the last two 52 week periods, producing a trend that seems to indicate a $5 million rise in average weekly revenue every year.

The last two set of graphs shows a comparison of weekly market share figures with the same figure from a year ago, and the same comparison but with revenue figures.

Blu-ray Sales Market Share: 2008/12 versus 2009/13 Comparison

Blu-ray Sales Market Share: 2008/12 versus 2009/13 Comparison

Blu-ray Sales Revenue: 2010/12 versus 2011/13 Comparison

Blu-ray Sales Revenue: 2010/12 versus 2011/13 Comparison

These two graphs are less indicative than the other graphs, but they’re interesting in that they show the seasonal effect in full force – note that the peaks and troughs occur roughly at the same time every year, for both market share and revenue. The more noticeable gap between the year-on-year market share comparison, and the less noticeable gap between the revenue version of the same comparison, again highlights that other factors exists (ie. decline of DVD sales) when taking into account market share.

In conclusion, it’s been another steady year of growth for Blu-ray. It looks as if it will take a while for Blu-ray to become the dominant disc format (dominant as in more than 50% market share on average), but on the whole, the format looks in healthy growth.